Julio Carreras
3B Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 425 | .218/.286/.308 | 2 | 32 | 48 | — | .217/.259/.299 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 404 | .239/.322/.347 | 6 | 25 | 65 | — | .232/.296/.333 |
| 2026 | 26 | AA/A+CIN | 289 | .237/.342/.384 | 6 | 13 | 61 | — | .200/.282/.310 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBCIN | 3 | .203/.268/.302 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBCIN | 54 | .203/.269/.303 | 1 | 2 | 61 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | — | 281 | 228 | 66 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 289 | 402 | 478 | 880 | 189 | 335 | 16 | 11 | 379 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 404 | 362 | 92 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 102 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 392 | 702 | 138 | 329 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 68 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 350 | 653 | 117 | 359 | 31 | 7 | 287 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 450 | 402 | 116 | 37 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 106 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 289 | 353 | 473 | 826 | 184 | 367 | 24 | 7 | 359 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 429 | 250 | 679 | 333 | 19 | 14 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 62 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 377 | 373 | 750 | 118 | 324 | 23 | 16 | 340 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 311 | 73 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 81 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 235 | 317 | 334 | 652 | 100 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 294 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 117 | 102 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 304 | 388 | 461 | 849 | 157 | 394 | 24 | 10 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 339 | 308 | 73 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 102 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 237 | 292 | 344 | 636 | 107 | 345 | 30 | 6 | 281 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 86 | 72 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 139 | 262 | 153 | 415 | 14 | 185 | 21 | 10 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 173 | 150 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 280 | 357 | 373 | 730 | 93 | 363 | 22 | 9 | 323 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 126 | 109 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 220 | 309 | 376 | 685 | 156 | 309 | 30 | 10 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 105 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 279 | 269 | 548 | 75 | 267 | 30 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 147 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 183 | 285 | 294 | 578 | 111 | 250 | 31 | 10 | 265 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 142 | 119 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 294 | 400 | 479 | 879 | 185 | 344 | 17 | 11 | 387 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 281 | 237 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 56 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 186 | 288 | 287 | 575 | 101 | 214 | 20 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 404 | 369 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 143 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 209 | 253 | 301 | 554 | 92 | 302 | 35 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 68 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 273 | 311 | 584 | 98 | 334 | 38 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 450 | 411 | 91 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 147 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 221 | 276 | 353 | 629 | 131 | 309 | 33 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 62 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 241 | 328 | 352 | 680 | 111 | 301 | 29 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 322 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 94 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 220 | 283 | 304 | 587 | 84 | 290 | 26 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 339 | 314 | 68 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 125 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 217 | 259 | 299 | 558 | 83 | 344 | 37 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 173 | 155 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 252 | 310 | 335 | 645 | 84 | 336 | 28 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 126 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 205 | 276 | 330 | 607 | 125 | 301 | 36 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 147 | 131 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 160 | 236 | 244 | 480 | 84 | 232 | 37 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 142 | 124 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 242 | 329 | 379 | 708 | 137 | 284 | 22 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 281 | 237 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 56 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 186 | 288 | 287 | 575 | 101 | 227 | 20 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Colorado | — | 281 | 228 | 66 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 289 | 402 | 478 | 880 | 189 | 335 | 16 | 11 | 379 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 404 | 369 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 143 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 209 | 253 | 301 | 554 | 92 | 322 | 35 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 404 | 362 | 92 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 102 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 392 | 702 | 138 | 329 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 539 | 491 | 107 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 179 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 218 | 274 | 342 | 616 | 124 | 327 | 33 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 539 | 478 | 134 | 42 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 131 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 280 | 350 | 450 | 800 | 169 | 365 | 24 | 7 | 349 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 535 | 480 | 106 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 143 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 221 | 290 | 304 | 594 | 83 | 299 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 535 | 464 | 117 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 55 | 123 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 252 | 340 | 366 | 706 | 114 | 322 | 23 | 10 | 317 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 391 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 157 | 5 | 32 | 4 | 225 | 272 | 320 | 591 | 95 | 368 | 37 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 380 | 83 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 120 | 5 | 32 | 4 | 218 | 286 | 308 | 594 | 89 | 312 | 28 | 7 | 266 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 404 | 361 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 126 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 227 | 294 | 316 | 609 | 89 | 338 | 31 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 404 | 352 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 107 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 239 | 322 | 347 | 668 | 108 | 324 | 26 | 9 | 299 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 255 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 85 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 200 | 282 | 318 | 599 | 118 | 274 | 29 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 289 | 245 | 58 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 69 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 237 | 342 | 384 | 725 | 147 | 301 | 24 | 11 | 325 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 281 | 245 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 56 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 180 | 288 | 278 | 565 | 98 | 214 | 20 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 404 | 379 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 143 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 203 | 253 | 293 | 546 | 90 | 302 | 35 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 539 | 496 | 107 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 179 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 216 | 274 | 339 | 613 | 123 | 312 | 33 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 535 | 483 | 106 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 143 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 219 | 290 | 302 | 593 | 83 | 292 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 397 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 157 | 5 | 32 | 4 | 222 | 272 | 315 | 586 | 93 | 344 | 37 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 404 | 367 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 126 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 223 | 294 | 311 | 604 | 87 | 321 | 31 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 258 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 85 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 198 | 282 | 314 | 596 | 116 | 258 | 29 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 397 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 157 | 5 | 32 | 4 | 222 | 272 | 315 | 586 | 93 | 344 | 37 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 404 | 367 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 126 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 223 | 294 | 311 | 604 | 87 | 321 | 31 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 258 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 85 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 198 | 282 | 314 | 596 | 116 | 258 | 29 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 339 | 308 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 112 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 202 | 267 | 298 | 566 | 97 | 298 | 33 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 268 | 302 | 570 | 99 | 299 | 33 | 0 | 259 | 60 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 27% | 200 | 182 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 202 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 97 | 297 | 32 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 27% | 54 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 269 | 303 | 572 | 100 | 297 | 33 | 7 | 260 | 61 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 54 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 278 | 306 | 584 | 102 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 260 | 59 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 120 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 217 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 203 | 277 | 305 | 582 | 102 | 299 | 33 | 7 | 260 | 59 | -31 | +5 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3232 | 2908 | 619 | 134 | 26 | 34 | 196 | 1005 | 61 | 165 | 41 | 213 | 277 | 312 | 589 | 99 | 310 | 31 | 6 | 256 | 59 | -17 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 124 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 202 | 12 | 33 | 8 | 212 | 275 | 311 | 586 | 99 | 308 | 31 | 6 | 256 | 59 | -31 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 147 PAwOBA .262 → .216 (−46)K% 30.6% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 17.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 5.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .262 → .216; ISO .111 → .092; BABIP .250 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 142 PAwOBA .380 → .302 (−77)K% 16.9% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 8.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .380 → .302; ISO .185 → .145; BABIP .344 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 173 PAwOBA .319 → .278 (−41)K% 22.0% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.97% | ÷0.945 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 26.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.028 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .319 → .278; ISO .093 → .080; BABIP .363 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 126 PAwOBA .294 → .252 (−42)K% 30.2% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.16% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.940 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.13% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 21.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.913 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.255 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .294 → .252; ISO .156 → .118; BABIP .309 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 339 PAwOBA .275 → .246 (−29)K% 30.1% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.09% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.49% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 24.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 7.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 2.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .275 → .246; ISO .107 → .090; BABIP .345 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 356 PAwOBA .288 → .260 (−28)K% 22.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.75% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.27% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 22.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .288 → .260; ISO .100 → .088; BABIP .300 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 62 PAwOBA .337 → .283 (−54)K% 22.6% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷0.947 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.13% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.062 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .283; ISO .118 → .092; BABIP .324 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Spokane Indians · 450 PAwOBA .350 → .263 (−87)K% 23.6% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.56% | ÷0.975 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 19.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 10.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.316 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 108, 2B 96, 3B 91, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .350 → .263; ISO .184 → .128; BABIP .367 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .