Julio Carreras — OGILVIE

Julio Carreras3B Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION285 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP294

ISO85

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	281	228	66	11	7	6	31	46	12	16	13	289	402	478	880	189	335	16	11	379	142	+14	-2	—	—	+6	1.9
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	362	92	19	5	7	24	102	5	15	4	254	309	392	702	138	329	25	6	304	92	-4	+1	—	—	+9	0.6
2022	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	68	60	14	5	1	0	5	21	1	2	0	233	303	350	653	117	359	31	7	287	80	-2	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	450	402	116	37	2	11	31	106	9	17	5	289	353	473	826	184	367	24	7	359	129	+16	+1	—	—	+10	2.7
2022	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	21	16	4	0	0	0	3	4	2	1	0	250	429	250	679		333	19	14	342	118	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	62	51	13	3	0	1	10	14	0	1	2	255	377	373	750	118	324	23	16	340	116	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	356	311	73	14	1	5	33	81	5	13	1	235	317	334	652	100	300	23	9	294	85	-6	+2	—	—	+8	0.4
2023	23	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	117	102	31	5	1	3	12	28	2	17	1	304	388	461	849	157	394	24	10	376	141	+6	+3	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	339	308	73	17	5	2	22	102	2	25	3	237	292	344	636	107	345	30	6	281	76	-10	+4	—	—	+7	0.2
2024	24	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	86	72	10	1	0	0	9	18	3	7	1	139	262	153	415	14	185	21	10	208	27	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	173	150	42	7	2	1	16	38	2	11	4	280	357	373	730	93	363	22	9	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.5
2025	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	126	109	24	4	2	3	12	38	2	8	0	220	309	376	685	156	309	30	10	302	90	-1	+2	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	105	93	18	1	0	2	8	31	3	6	2	194	279	269	548	75	267	30	8	255	59	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	281	240	53	8	5	5	19	66	12	16	13	221	310	358	668	138	258	23	7	279	75	-8	-2	—	—	+6	-0.4
2021	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	370	76	14	4	4	16	143	5	15	4	205	248	297	545	92	298	35	4	235	45	-26	+1	—	—	+9	-1.7
2022	22	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	68	62	12	4	1	0	3	26	1	2	0	194	242	290	533	97	315	38	4	230	42	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	450	414	84	26	2	6	19	152	9	17	5	203	253	319	572	116	288	34	4	242	50	-27	+1	—	—	+10	-1.6
2023	23	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	62	54	11	2	0	1	7	19	0	1	2	204	295	296	591	93	278	31	11	263	64	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	356	323	68	13	1	4	22	94	5	13	1	211	271	294	566	84	276	26	6	250	55	-19	+2	—	—	+8	-0.9
2024	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	339	315	60	13	3	1	15	134	2	25	3	190	232	260	492	70	315	40	4	219	34	-26	+4	—	—	+7	-1.6
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	173	155	35	5	2	1	11	52	2	11	4	226	286	303	589	77	313	30	6	256	59	-8	+1	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	126	112	23	4	2	2	9	45	2	8	0	205	276	330	607	125	295	36	7	249	55	-7	+2	—	—	+3	-0.3
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	281	240	53	8	5	5	19	66	12	16	13	221	310	358	668	138	279	23	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	281	228	66	11	7	6	31	46	12	16	13	289	402	478	880	189	335	16	11	379	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	370	76	14	4	4	16	143	5	15	4	205	248	297	545	92	316	35	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	362	92	19	5	7	24	102	5	15	4	254	309	392	702	138	329	25	6	304	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	539	494	99	31	2	7	23	185	12	20	5	200	253	314	567	113	304	34	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	539	478	134	42	3	11	39	131	12	20	5	280	350	450	800	169	365	24	7	349	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	535	482	101	20	1	6	38	145	7	31	4	210	277	293	570	83	284	27	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	535	464	117	22	2	9	55	123	7	31	4	252	340	366	706	114	322	23	10	317	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	425	392	76	17	4	2	19	168	5	32	4	194	240	273	513	79	330	40	4	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	425	380	83	18	5	2	31	120	5	32	4	218	286	308	594	89	312	28	7	266	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	404	361	76	13	4	3	27	131	7	25	6	211	278	294	572	83	319	32	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	404	352	84	12	4	6	36	107	7	25	6	239	322	347	668	108	324	26	9	299	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	281	248	53	8	5	5	19	66	12	16	13	214	310	347	657	133	258	23	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	380	76	14	4	4	16	143	5	15	4	200	248	289	538	89	298	35	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	539	499	99	31	2	7	23	185	12	20	5	198	253	311	564	112	292	34	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	535	485	101	20	1	6	38	145	7	31	4	208	277	291	568	82	276	27	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	425	398	76	17	4	2	19	168	5	32	4	191	240	269	509	78	315	40	4	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	404	367	76	13	4	3	27	131	7	25	6	207	278	289	567	82	305	32	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	535	485	101	20	1	6	38	145	7	31	4	208	277	291	568	82	276	27	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	425	398	76	17	4	2	19	168	5	32	4	191	240	269	509	78	315	40	4	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	404	367	76	13	4	3	27	131	7	25	6	207	278	289	567	82	305	32	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	CIN	—	285	251	51	13	1	5	21	85	8	13	3	203	286	323	608	120	280	30	7	264	65	-12	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ RAW	CIN	—	142	119	35	11	1	3	16	24	5	7	2	294	400	479	879	185	344	17	11	387	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA RAW	CIN	—	143	123	23	5	0	3	14	43	3	6	1	187	286	301	587	114	253	30	10	267	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AA MLE	CIN	2%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		291	30	10	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AA MLE	CIN	—	295	260	52	13	1	5	22	88	8	13	3	200	283	315	598	115	276	30	7	264	65	-12	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	27%	318	288	59	13	2	4	22	98	5	12	2	205	273	306	579	101	289	31	7	263	64	-14	+2	+0	+1	+7	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	40%	350	317	65	14	2	5	25	106	5	13	3	205	274	309	583	104	289	30	7	266	66	-14	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	27%	85	78	16	4	0	1	6	26	1	3	1	205	271	295	565	90	292	31	7	255	64	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	40%	140	127	27	6	1	2	10	43	2	5	1	213	281	323	603	110	292	31	7	259	66	-6	+1	-0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	225	205	43	10	1	3	16	69	3	8	2	210	277	312	589	102	299	31	7	258	54	-9	+1	-0	+1	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	125	29	3	9	46	199	9	23	6	211	278	316	594	105	300	31	7	258	54	-27	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3266	2953	606	130	24	36	190	1045	58	164	41	205	267	302	569	97	301	32	6	249	54	-28	+3	-1	+2	+15	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	121	26	5	7	38	208	12	33	8	206	268	303	571	97	302	32	6	249	54	-27	+3	-1	+2	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	230	3	9	206	272	309	+1	+0	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	9	25	+2.4	+1.4	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Julio Carreras (OGILVIE)	26	55	35	60	45	199/267/295	96	291	3	11	32%	7%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Reed 2007 · MLB	26	50→52	38→40	56→60	37	236/272/317	81	316	5	28	27%	4%	65	-1.2	226/265/305	79	297	3	28	24%	5%	60	-1.6	224/260/289	65	291	0	37	22%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Michael Mitchell 2012 · AA	26	44→54	37→40	56→55	43	210/267/283	74	278	5	24	25%	6%	57	-1.8	210/248/287	77	278	6	19	25%	4%	50	-2.3	204/232/265	60	269	4	20	25%	2%	36	-2.8
✕Justin Dean 2023 · AAA	26	44→49	40→45	58→65	40	204/278/299	95	320	7	26	36%	7%	65	-1.2	209/288/298	89	324	8	39	35%	9%	69	-0.9	212/292/295	83	324	7	47	34%	9%	67	-0.7
✕Kenny Wilson 2016 · AAA	26	49→51	39→40	57→60	42	233/284/326	94	310	6	27	26%	6%	73	-0.6	220/283/303	83	307	5	25	28%	7%	68	-1.0	200/268/290	91	305	7	22	34%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Darren Ford 2012 · MLB	26	47→53	41→45	59→65	41	224/277/323	99	305	8	34	28%	6%	70	-0.9	225/272/306	81	304	6	39	26%	6%	63	-1.3	227/272/293	66	306	4	48	26%	5%	57	-1.0
✕D.J. Burt 2022 · AA	26	49→51	39→40	55→65	45	232/292/320	88	323	7	30	29%	8%	75	-0.5	234/302/321	87	309	6	37	24%	8%	78	-0.3	232/306/302	69	302	4	56	22%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2021 · AA	26	40→49	38→45	55→60	41	188/273/268	80	300	6	24	36%	8%	57	-1.8	206/282/310	104	292	9	23	31%	7%	70	-0.8	198/283/305	107	280	11	28	31%	8%	67	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	194/257/310	116	274	9	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	221/275/344	123	302	11	17	29%	5%	74	-0.5	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Matthew Batten 2022 · AAA	27	50→53	38→40	54→55	42	233/286/308	75	337	6	22	31%	7%	70	-0.9	213/284/312	99	292	10	23	28%	9%	70	-0.8	197/272/296	99	263	10	24	28%	9%	61	-1.3
✕Stephen Wrenn 2021 · AA	26	43	42→45	58→60	40	207/267/318	111	295	8	25	32%	6%	65	-1.2	213/274/327	114	323	11	22	35%	6%	70	-0.8	198/261/302	104	308	10	29	37%	6%	57	-1.0
✕Mark Dolenc 2011 · AA	26	49→52	40	54→55	36	228/270/319	91	340	7	19	34%	5%	65	-1.2	218/261/295	77	334	6	15	34%	5%	57	-1.8	213/255/271	58	329	3	16	34%	4%	46	-1.3
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	44	38→40	58→55	40	207/268/279	72	305	6	26	32%	7%	57	-1.8	234/278/320	86	310	5	20	25%	5%	69	-0.9	247/287/328	80	320	4	20	23%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2021 · AA	26	45→42	38→50	54→55	39	210/259/286	76	313	5	26	33%	6%	54	-2.0	207/249/342	135	281	14	19	31%	5%	64	-1.3	198/240/336	138	265	15	22	31%	4%	57	-1.1
✕Jared Oliva 2022 · MLB	26	46→48	39→45	56→65	39	217/270/310	94	307	6	22	30%	6%	64	-1.3	220/275/340	120	292	10	28	27%	6%	74	-0.6	223/290/349	126	282	12	55	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Anthony Alford 2020 · MLB	26	45→51	41→45	54→55	40	213/277/313	100	312	8	25	33%	6%	68	-1.0	223/292/377	154	342	18	22	37%	7%	88	+0.5	230/308/406	176	380	22	20	42%	8%	98	+0.7
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	216/266/303	87	289	6	32	27%	6%	61	-1.5	199/257/281	82	305	6	17	34%	7%	53	-2.1	165/231/231	66	276	3	12	38%	7%	30	-1.8
✕Kyle Johnson 2016 · AAA	26	44→52	39→40	50→55	43	209/274/297	88	284	5	18	27%	6%	63	-1.3	196/257/282	86	277	6	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	167/230/232	65	234	5	8	29%	6%	29	-1.8
✕Vance Vizcaino 2021 · AA	26	44	40	55	39	210/261/304	93	304	7	24	32%	6%	59	-1.7	219/278/323	104	314	10	15	31%	6%	70	-0.8	202/263/278	76	292	9	13	32%	6%	52	-0.5
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2014 · AA	26	45→49	39→40	52→55	42	215/262/303	87	277	5	19	24%	6%	59	-1.6	230/271/308	78	290	3	14	21%	5%	63	-1.3	236/273/307	70	292	2	12	19%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Hunter Jones 2017 · AA	25	45→55	39→40	55	41	217/273/303	85	291	6	22	26%	6%	63	-1.3	219/275/311	92	284	7	14	24%	6%	66	-1.1	212/271/303	90	274	7	12	24%	6%	60	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps