Julio Carreras — OGILVIE

Julio Carreras3B Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 129 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .258 / .286

PA129

HR1

SB6

K%33

BB%6

BABIP299

ISO84

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	281	240	53	8	5	5	19	66	12	16	13	221	310	358	668	138	279	23	7	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	281	228	66	11	7	6	31	46	12	16	13	289	402	478	880	189	335	16	11	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	370	75	13	3	4	16	147	5	15	4	203	246	286	532	84	317	36	4	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	362	92	19	5	7	24	102	5	15	4	254	309	392	702	138	329	25	6	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	539	494	94	31	2	5	23	190	12	20	5	190	244	291	535	101	297	35	4	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	539	478	134	42	3	11	39	131	12	20	5	280	350	450	800	169	365	24	7	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	535	482	98	20	2	6	38	147	7	31	4	203	271	290	562	87	277	27	7	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	535	464	117	22	2	9	55	123	7	31	4	252	340	366	706	114	322	23	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	425	392	75	17	4	1	19	172	5	32	4	191	238	263	501	71	335	40	4	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	425	380	83	18	5	2	31	120	5	32	4	218	286	308	594	89	312	28	7	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	404	361	73	13	4	3	27	138	7	25	6	202	271	285	556	83	315	34	7	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	404	352	84	12	4	6	36	107	7	25	6	239	322	347	668	108	324	26	9	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	CIN	—	121	109	26	7	0	2	9	37	0	6	2	239	297	358	654	119	333	31	7	280	72	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
YTD	26	AA	CIN	—	121	105	29	8	0	2	13	28	0	6	2	276	356	410	765	133	351	23	11	336	116	+2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.7
ROS	26	AA	CIN	2%	129	119	24	5	1	1	8	42	1	6	1	202	258	286	544	84	306	33	6	255	53	-7	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
ROS	26	MLB	CIN	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						308	33	0	251	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AA	CIN	—	124	112	26	7	0	2	9	38	0	6	2	232	289	348	637	116	324	31	7	279	72	-4	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.0
TOT	26	AA	CIN	—	250	228	50	12	1	3	17	79	1	12	3	219	276	320	597	101	315	32	7	267	62	-11	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	CIN	27%	318	291	62	13	2	4	22	100	2	13	3	213	273	313	586	100	303	31	7	260	57	-15	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.4
2028	28	MLB	CIN	40%	350	319	67	14	2	4	25	108	3	14	3	210	274	304	578	94	301	31	7	264	60	-16	+2	-1	+1	+10	-0.4
2029	29	MLB	CIN	45%	362	330	71	15	2	5	26	111	3	13	3	215	279	318	597	103	300	31	7	265	61	-16	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.5
2030	30	MLB	CIN	48%	370	337	72	15	2	5	27	114	3	12	3	214	278	315	592	101	299	31	7	263	60	-17	+1	-2	+1	+10	-0.6
2027	27	MLB	CIN	27%	85	78	17	4	0	1	6	27	1	4	1	218	282	308	590	90	305	32	7	257	55	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB	CIN	40%	140	128	28	6	1	2	10	43	1	6	1	219	281	328	609	109	304	31	7	261	58	-7	+1	-0	+0	+4	-0.2
2029	29	MLB	CIN	45%	162	148	32	7	1	2	12	50	1	6	1	216	280	318	597	101	303	31	7	262	58	-8	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
2030	30	MLB	CIN	48%	176	160	34	7	1	2	13	54	1	6	1	212	276	306	582	94	301	31	7	260	57	-8	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	566	517	111	24	3	7	41	175	4	22	4	215	278	313	591	99	308	31	7	260	57	-27	+3	-2	+2	+16	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	127	28	3	8	47	201	5	25	5	214	277	311	589	98	307	31	7	260	57	-31	+3	-2	+2	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	4117	3735	764	164	29	43	250	1335	60	197	49	205	266	299	564	94	303	32	6	247	47	-245	+20	-4	+15	+117	-10.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	121	26	5	7	39	211	9	31	8	205	264	302	566	97	303	32	6	247	47	-39	+3	-1	+2	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	281	228	66	11	7	6	31	46	12	16	13	289	402	478	880	189	335	16	11	379	148	+15	-2	—	—	+8	2.2
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	404	362	92	19	5	7	24	102	5	15	4	254	309	392	702	138	329	25	6	304	91	-4	+1	—	—	+11	0.9
2022	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	68	60	14	5	1	0	5	21	1	2	0	233	303	350	653	117	359	31	7	287	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	450	402	116	37	2	11	31	106	9	17	5	289	353	473	826	184	367	24	7	359	133	+17	+1	—	—	+13	3.2
2022	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	21	16	4	0	0	0	3	4	2	1	0	250	429	250	679		333	19	14	342	120	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	62	51	13	3	0	1	10	14	0	1	2	255	377	373	750	118	324	23	16	340	118	+1	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	356	311	73	14	1	5	33	81	5	13	1	235	317	334	652	100	300	23	9	294	83	-7	+2	—	—	+10	0.6
2023	23	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	117	102	31	5	1	3	12	28	2	17	1	304	388	461	849	157	394	24	10	376	146	+6	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2024	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	339	308	73	17	5	2	22	102	2	25	3	237	292	344	636	107	345	30	6	281	73	-10	+4	—	—	+10	0.3
2024	24	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	86	72	10	1	0	0	9	18	3	7	1	139	262	153	415	14	185	21	10	208	18	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	173	150	42	7	2	1	16	38	2	11	4	280	357	373	730	93	363	22	9	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	126	109	24	4	2	3	12	38	2	8	0	220	309	376	685	156	309	30	10	302	89	-2	+2	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	105	93	18	1	0	2	8	31	3	6	2	194	279	269	548	75	267	30	8	255	54	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	568	7	21	212	271	309	+2	+1	-0.7	-0.3
	/162	664	8	25	212	271	309	+2.4	+1.2	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Julio Carreras (OGILVIE)	26	55	35	60	45	219/276/320	101	315	3	12	32%	7%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kenny Wilson 2016 · AAA	26	48→51	40	58→60	41	230/280/327	97	315	6	27	28%	6%	68	-0.5	219/282/306	87	309	6	25	29%	7%	64	-0.8	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Eric Reed 2007 · MLB	26	50→51	38→40	56→60	37	234/270/316	81	316	5	28	27%	4%	59	-1.1	225/263/304	79	296	3	28	24%	4%	54	-1.4	223/259/288	65	291	0	37	22%	4%	45	-0.9
✕Michael Mitchell 2012 · AA	26	45→55	37→40	56→55	42	213/270/288	74	288	5	24	27%	6%	53	-1.5	207/246/287	80	284	6	19	28%	4%	43	-2.2	196/224/260	63	269	5	20	28%	2%	23	-3.0
✕Matthew Batten 2022 · AAA	27	49→51	38→40	54→55	41	227/280/300	74	334	6	22	32%	7%	60	-1.0	207/279/301	94	289	9	23	29%	9%	62	-0.9	191/268/284	93	259	9	24	28%	9%	51	-1.4
✕Darren Ford 2012 · MLB	26	45→53	42→45	59→65	40	220/272/324	104	302	9	34	29%	6%	64	-0.8	227/272/311	84	309	6	39	27%	6%	59	-1.1	229/273/299	70	312	5	48	27%	5%	54	-0.8
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	43→48	38→40	58→65	41	207/257/286	79	287	5	32	29%	6%	47	-1.9	194/251/270	76	305	5	17	35%	7%	41	-2.3	158/224/216	58	272	3	12	40%	7%	14	-2.0
✕D.J. Burt 2022 · AA	26	48→51	40	55→65	45	227/290/316	89	325	7	30	31%	8%	69	-0.4	233/301/321	88	314	6	37	26%	8%	76	+0.0	230/304/301	71	305	4	56	24%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	39	193/255/310	117	277	9	24	33%	6%	54	-1.4	219/273/343	124	300	11	17	30%	5%	70	-0.3	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2021 · AA	26	40→47	39→45	55→60	40	184/270/268	84	306	7	24	39%	8%	50	-1.7	205/282/312	107	298	10	23	32%	7%	67	-0.5	198/285/310	113	286	12	28	32%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Ben DeLuzio 2021 · AAA	26	48→49	40→45	54→60	41	226/288/321	95	322	6	23	30%	6%	70	-0.3	214/272/323	109	302	8	25	30%	6%	64	-0.8	200/261/305	105	286	8	30	31%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	43	38→40	58→55	39	206/263/277	72	302	6	26	32%	6%	48	-1.9	234/276/322	88	309	5	20	25%	5%	64	-0.8	248/287/332	84	320	4	20	23%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Jacob May 2018 · MLB	26	47→55	36→40	56→60	37	219/260/287	68	307	4	29	29%	4%	48	-1.9	212/252/289	77	294	5	21	28%	5%	46	-2.0	205/239/261	56	280	2	22	26%	4%	29	-1.8
✕Magneuris Sierra 2022 · MLB	26	49→57	38→40	58→60	44	234/280/313	79	296	4	26	22%	6%	63	-0.8	229/278/323	94	299	8	27	25%	6%	66	-0.6	226/273/315	89	297	7	33	25%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Kyle Johnson 2016 · AAA	26	43→51	39→40	50→55	43	206/272/295	88	284	5	18	28%	6%	57	-1.2	193/254/279	86	274	7	11	30%	6%	45	-2.1	162/225/224	63	227	5	8	29%	6%	16	-1.9
✕Niko Decolati 2023 · AA	25	44→47	39→40	54→55	42	209/276/294	85	309	7	21	33%	7%	58	-1.2	205/298/291	86	306	6	16	32%	9%	68	-0.5	192/306/270	77	284	5	18	30%	11%	65	-0.4
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2014 · AA	26	44→48	39→40	53→55	42	213/260/301	88	278	6	19	25%	6%	53	-1.5	227/268/306	79	291	4	14	22%	5%	56	-1.3	232/268/302	70	292	2	12	20%	4%	51	-0.9
✕Justin Dean 2023 · AAA	26	43→49	42→45	58→65	38	201/273/306	105	322	9	26	38%	7%	61	-1.0	213/291/314	101	331	10	39	35%	9%	70	-0.3	232/303/321	89	344	6	48	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Joel Booker 2021 · AAA	27	45→49	39→40	51→55	39	214/270/299	85	302	7	19	30%	5%	57	-1.2	198/236/300	102	321	10	21	40%	4%	43	-2.2	156/175/240	84	265	10	33	45%	1%	-2	-1.8
✕Mark Dolenc 2011 · AA	26	48→52	41→40	55	36	226/268/323	97	337	8	19	34%	5%	61	-1.0	212/256/292	80	332	7	15	36%	5%	48	-1.9	201/246/260	59	320	4	16	37%	4%	34	-1.4
✕Hunter Jones 2017 · AA	25	45→55	39→45	55	41	216/271/302	87	294	6	22	28%	6%	58	-1.2	217/273/315	98	285	8	14	25%	6%	62	-0.9	209/267/307	97	273	8	12	25%	6%	55	-0.8