Julio Carreras — OGILVIE

Julio Carreras3B Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .257 / .285

PA250

HR3

SB10

K%33

BB%6

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

35→35

SPD

60→60

EYE

41↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.4peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-10M		$-22M	-$12M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	281	240	53	8	5	5	19	66	12	16	13	.221	.310	.358	.668	.138	.279	23	7	.279	72	-9	-2	+0	+1	+8	-0.2
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	404	370	78	14	4	5	16	141	5	15	4	.211	.253	.311	.564	.100	.319	35	4	.237	40	-28	+1	+0	+1	+11	-1.4
2022	22	A+	3 teams	539	494	98	31	2	6	23	187	12	20	5	.198	.251	.306	.557	.107	.305	35	4	.238	41	-36	+2	+0	+2	+15	-1.7
2023	23	AA	3 teams	535	482	102	19	2	6	38	152	7	31	4	.212	.279	.297	.576	.085	.294	28	7	.256	54	-28	+5	+0	+2	+15	-0.6
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	425	392	75	17	3	2	19	167	5	32	4	.191	.238	.265	.503	.074	.324	39	4	.217	24	-36	+5	+0	+2	+12	-1.8
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	404	361	76	12	4	4	27	135	7	25	6	.211	.278	.299	.578	.089	.321	33	7	.253	52	-22	+3	+0	+1	+11	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	COL	250	230	47	9	2	3	16	83	2	10	2	.204	.262	.300	.562	.096	.297	33	6	.248	48	-15	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 25%	COL	318	291	59	11	2	4	21	103	3	13	2	.203	.263	.296	.559	.093	.296	32	7	.256	54	-17	+2	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
2028	28	MLB 37%	COL	350	320	66	13	2	5	24	111	3	14	2	.206	.268	.306	.574	.100	.296	32	7	.260	57	-17	+2	-1	+1	+10	-0.5
2029	29	MLB 47%	COL	362	330	68	13	2	5	26	115	3	14	2	.206	.270	.303	.573	.097	.295	32	7	.261	58	-17	+2	-1	+1	+10	-0.5
2030	30	MLB 55%	COL	370	337	69	13	2	5	26	118	4	13	2	.205	.270	.300	.569	.095	.294	32	7	.260	57	-18	+2	-2	+1	+10	-0.7
2031	31	MLB 66%	COL	361	329	67	13	2	5	26	116	3	11	1	.204	.268	.301	.569	.097	.293	32	7	.256	54	-19	+2	-3	+1	+10	-0.8
2032	32	MLB 75%	COL	346	315	63	12	2	4	25	113	3	9	1	.200	.265	.289	.554	.089	.292	33	7	.252	51	-19	+1	-4	+1	+10	-1.0
2033	33	MLB 93%	COL	318	290	58	11	2	4	22	106	3	7	0	.200	.263	.293	.557	.093	.291	33	7	.247	47	-19	+1	-4	+1	+9	-1.2
2034	34	MLB	COL	276	253	48	9	1	3	19	95	2	6	0	.190	.252	.269	.521	.079	.290	34	7	.241	43	-18	+1	-5	+1	+8	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5539	5034	1027	205	37	66	347	1808	74	236	48	.204	.265	.299	.564	.095	.301	33	6	.250	49	-317	+28	-20	+20	+157	-13.4
/ 162G	—			650	591	120	24	4	8	41	212	9	28	6	.203	.266	.298	.563	.095	.299	33	6	.250	49	-37	+3	-2	+2	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	281	228	66	11	7	6	31	46	12	16	13	.289	.402	.478	.880	.189	.335	16	11	.379	148	+15	-2	—	—	+8	2.2
2021	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	404	362	92	19	5	7	24	102	5	15	4	.254	.309	.392	.702	.138	.329	25	6	.304	91	-4	+1	—	—	+11	0.9
2022	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	68	60	14	5	1	0	5	21	1	2	0	.233	.303	.350	.653	.117	.359	31	7	.287	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	22	A+	Spokane Indians	450	402	116	37	2	11	31	106	9	17	5	.289	.353	.473	.826	.184	.367	24	7	.359	133	+17	+1	—	—	+13	3.2
2022	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	21	16	4	0	0	0	3	4	2	1	0	.250	.429	.250	.679	.000	.333	19	14	.342	120	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	62	51	13	3	0	1	10	14	0	1	2	.255	.377	.373	.750	.118	.324	23	16	.340	118	+1	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	356	311	73	14	1	5	33	81	5	13	1	.235	.317	.334	.652	.100	.300	23	9	.294	83	-7	+2	—	—	+10	0.6
2023	23	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	117	102	31	5	1	3	12	28	2	17	1	.304	.388	.461	.849	.157	.394	24	10	.376	146	+6	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2024	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	339	308	73	17	5	2	22	102	2	25	3	.237	.292	.344	.636	.107	.345	30	6	.281	73	-10	+4	—	—	+10	0.3
2024	24	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	86	72	10	1	0	0	9	18	3	7	1	.139	.262	.153	.415	.014	.185	21	10	.208	18	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	173	150	42	7	2	1	16	38	2	11	4	.280	.357	.373	.730	.093	.363	22	9	.323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	126	109	24	4	2	3	12	38	2	8	0	.220	.309	.376	.685	.156	.309	30	10	.302	89	-2	+2	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	105	93	18	1	0	2	8	31	3	6	2	.194	.279	.269	.548	.075	.267	30	8	.255	54	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Julio Carreras (OGILVIE)	26	55	35	60	45	.198/.257/.285	.087	.297	3	10	33%	6%	48	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕D.J. Burt 2022 · AA	26	46→51	40	55→65	44	.219/.280/.306	.087	.311	7	30	30%	8%	63	-0.9	.231/.298/.318	.087	.311	6	38	25%	8%	73	-0.1	.227/.300/.298	.072	.298	4	56	23%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Kenny Wilson 2016 · AAA	26	48→50	40	57→60	41	.227/.278/.324	.096	.310	6	27	28%	6%	66	-0.6	.219/.281/.304	.085	.307	6	25	28%	7%	63	-0.9	.199/.267/.293	.094	.305	8	22	35%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Eric Reed 2007 · MLB	26	49→51	38→40	56→60	37	.234/.269/.314	.080	.315	5	28	27%	4%	59	-1.1	.227/.265/.307	.080	.300	3	29	24%	4%	55	-1.4	.225/.261/.290	.065	.293	0	37	22%	4%	46	-0.8
✕Justin Dean 2023 · AAA	26	43→47	42→45	58→65	38	.201/.273/.305	.104	.324	9	26	38%	7%	61	-1.0	.204/.283/.299	.095	.323	9	38	36%	9%	63	-0.8	.208/.288/.296	.088	.322	8	47	35%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Michael Mitchell 2012 · AA	26	43→53	37→40	55	43	.206/.264/.277	.071	.278	5	24	26%	6%	49	-1.8	.205/.244/.281	.076	.277	6	19	27%	4%	40	-2.4	.196/.225/.258	.062	.264	4	20	27%	2%	22	-3.0
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2021 · AA	26	40→46	39→45	55→60	40	.184/.267/.265	.081	.302	6	24	38%	8%	49	-1.8	.202/.278/.309	.107	.292	10	23	32%	7%	64	-0.8	.195/.280/.308	.112	.279	12	28	32%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Darren Ford 2012 · MLB	26	47→53	41→45	59→65	41	.227/.281/.331	.104	.312	8	33	29%	6%	69	-0.4	.225/.272/.308	.083	.305	6	39	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.226/.272/.293	.067	.305	4	48	26%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Mark Dolenc 2011 · AA	26	49→52	40	55	37	.229/.273/.320	.091	.342	7	19	34%	5%	63	-0.9	.220/.263/.299	.079	.344	6	16	36%	5%	53	-1.5	.211/.255/.269	.058	.334	4	16	36%	4%	39	-1.2
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	58→60	40	.195/.257/.310	.114	.277	9	26	32%	6%	54	-1.4	.220/.274/.346	.126	.300	11	17	29%	5%	71	-0.3	.227/.287/.366	.138	.305	13	23	28%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Kyle Johnson 2016 · AAA	26	45→50	39→40	51→55	44	.213/.279/.303	.089	.287	5	19	26%	7%	62	-0.9	.194/.255/.280	.086	.277	6	12	30%	6%	46	-2.0	.167/.230/.232	.065	.237	5	8	30%	6%	20	-1.8
✕Stephen Wrenn 2021 · AA	26	41→43	42→45	59→60	39	.200/.260/.310	.111	.293	9	26	34%	6%	56	-1.3	.207/.268/.324	.117	.323	12	22	37%	6%	63	-0.8	.189/.251/.296	.108	.301	12	29	39%	5%	47	-1.1
✕Magneuris Sierra 2022 · MLB	26	48→57	38→40	58→60	43	.228/.271/.309	.081	.286	5	27	22%	5%	59	-1.1	.223/.273/.310	.087	.290	7	27	24%	6%	60	-1.0	.218/.266/.297	.079	.286	7	33	25%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	.217/.269/.305	.088	.291	6	33	27%	6%	57	-1.2	.198/.256/.280	.082	.303	6	18	34%	7%	46	-2.0	.164/.230/.230	.066	.276	3	12	39%	7%	20	-1.8
✕Ben DeLuzio 2021 · AAA	26	49→50	40→45	55→60	41	.227/.288/.324	.097	.326	6	26	30%	6%	71	-0.3	.219/.277/.329	.110	.309	8	25	30%	6%	68	-0.5	.207/.267/.313	.106	.295	8	30	31%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2021 · AA	26	44→42	38→50	54→55	37	.206/.254/.285	.078	.315	6	26	35%	6%	46	-2.0	.208/.250/.351	.143	.287	16	20	32%	5%	63	-0.9	.197/.239/.349	.152	.266	18	22	33%	4%	55	-0.8
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2010 · AAA	26	46	38→40	56→55	38	.216/.262/.300	.084	.301	4	18	29%	5%	53	-1.5	.239/.279/.328	.089	.312	6	21	24%	5%	67	-0.5	.250/.290/.322	.072	.316	5	23	22%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Matthew Batten 2022 · AAA	27	48→49	39→45	52→55	40	.223/.275/.301	.078	.328	6	20	32%	7%	59	-1.1	.211/.282/.310	.099	.292	10	23	29%	8%	66	-0.6	.197/.272/.297	.101	.262	10	24	27%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2014 · AA	26	45→50	39→40	52→55	42	.216/.262/.306	.090	.279	6	19	25%	6%	55	-1.4	.229/.271/.309	.080	.293	4	14	22%	5%	58	-1.2	.235/.272/.308	.072	.294	3	12	20%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Niko Decolati 2023 · AA	25	45→47	40→45	54→55	42	.213/.279/.305	.092	.310	8	20	32%	7%	63	-0.9	.209/.302/.294	.085	.316	6	16	32%	9%	71	-0.3	.201/.316/.276	.075	.308	5	18	32%	11%	71	-0.1
✕Todd Hankins 2017 · AAA	26	42→48	41→40	53→55	37	.207/.252/.304	.097	.294	8	19	32%	5%	50	-1.7	.211/.256/.294	.083	.310	7	20	32%	5%	49	-1.8	.210/.256/.275	.064	.315	4	26	33%	5%	41	-1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)