Brandon McIlwain
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 446 | .247/.335/.384 | 8 | 16 | 60 | — | .206/.279/.310 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/AANYM | 551 | .247/.358/.393 | 12 | 20 | 81 | — | .221/.313/.341 |
| 2024 | 26 | AANYM | 171 | .224/.306/.342 | 3 | 6 | 58 | — | .205/.271/.314 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 287 | 239 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 89 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 369 | 397 | 766 | 142 | 365 | 31 | 13 | 343 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 218 | 192 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 64 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 219 | 309 | 323 | 632 | 104 | 304 | 29 | 9 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 185 | 161 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 298 | 389 | 472 | 861 | 174 | 398 | 24 | 8 | 384 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 43 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 233 | 325 | 558 | 150 | 240 | 33 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 191 | 151 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 46 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 219 | 382 | 391 | 773 | 172 | 280 | 24 | 18 | 356 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 360 | 315 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 73 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 260 | 346 | 394 | 739 | 133 | 314 | 20 | 8 | 332 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 152 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 224 | 306 | 342 | 648 | 118 | 295 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 287 | 251 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 128 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 100 | 316 | 45 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 218 | 198 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 192 | 263 | 273 | 535 | 81 | 289 | 35 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 185 | 167 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 222 | 297 | 353 | 651 | 132 | 318 | 32 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 191 | 160 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 57 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 188 | 319 | 325 | 644 | 138 | 267 | 30 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 360 | 323 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 89 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 238 | 309 | 350 | 659 | 111 | 298 | 25 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 156 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 271 | 314 | 585 | 109 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 287 | 251 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 128 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 100 | 333 | 45 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 287 | 239 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 89 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 369 | 397 | 766 | 142 | 365 | 31 | 13 | 343 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 446 | 405 | 84 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 150 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 207 | 279 | 316 | 595 | 109 | 309 | 34 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 446 | 393 | 97 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 123 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 247 | 335 | 384 | 719 | 137 | 338 | 28 | 8 | 325 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 483 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 146 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 222 | 313 | 335 | 648 | 114 | 295 | 26 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 551 | 466 | 115 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 119 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 247 | 358 | 393 | 751 | 146 | 304 | 22 | 11 | 340 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 156 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 271 | 314 | 585 | 109 | 284 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 152 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 224 | 306 | 342 | 648 | 118 | 295 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 287 | 254 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 128 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 98 | 316 | 45 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 446 | 403 | 84 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 150 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 208 | 279 | 318 | 596 | 109 | 302 | 34 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 482 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 146 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 222 | 313 | 336 | 649 | 114 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 155 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 206 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 110 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 171 | 155 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 206 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 110 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1455 | 1295 | 269 | 53 | 8 | 24 | 102 | 475 | 47 | 50 | 21 | 208 | 289 | 317 | 606 | 109 | 304 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -58 | +2 | +0 | -9 | +32 | -3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 121 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 212 | 21 | 22 | 9 | 209 | 291 | 321 | 612 | 112 | 306 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -26 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 171 PAwOBA .287 → .254 (−33)K% 25.7% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.73% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.30% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 20.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .287 → .254; ISO .118 → .107; BABIP .295 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 360 PAwOBA .327 → .287 (−40)K% 20.3% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.28% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.89% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.43% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .327 → .287; ISO .133 → .112; BABIP .314 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 191 PAwOBA .348 → .291 (−57)K% 24.1% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.08% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.80% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 13.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.19% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 15.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.48% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 9.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .348 → .291; ISO .172 → .137; BABIP .280 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 218 PAwOBA .285 → .241 (−43)K% 29.4% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.36% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.988 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .285 → .241; ISO .104 → .088; BABIP .304 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 185 PAwOBA .374 → .278 (−96)K% 24.3% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷0.995 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.41% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 4.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 22.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.060 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 4.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.925 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.43% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 112, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .374 → .278; ISO .174 → .135; BABIP .398 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASt. Lucie Mets · 287 PAwOBA .341 → .247 (−94)K% 31.0% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.01% | ÷0.945 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.54% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×0.990 | 24.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.33% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×0.990 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×0.990 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 127, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .341 → .247; ISO .142 → .102; BABIP .365 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .