Jordy Vargas

P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 153 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #952MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP47ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ACOL	13	13	64	4.22	2.88	26.1%	9.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.74
2025	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	31	7.18	5.21	28.1%	16.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 19.0% · FIP 6.47
2026	22	A+COL	24	24	109	5.20	4.07	24.9%	13.3%	—	K 19.2% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	24	24	129	5.39	5.39	20.2%	15.2%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	10	10	57	5.37	5.26	21.3%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	15	15	89	5.14	5.03	21.9%	11.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control50Command51FB velo53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsWill Schomberg (age 23) · Max Bain (age 23) · Trace Bright (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%20.2%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL5050

CMD3050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	0.0%	1.30	3.02	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	32.4%	11.3%	21.1%	0.0%	1.30	1.83	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.4%	2.98	4.35	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	31.5%	8.4%	23.2%	2.5%	2.98	2.87	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.22	3.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	26.1%	9.1%	17.0%	1.5%	4.22	2.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	28.1%	16.2%	11.9%	3.8%	7.18	5.21	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	2.4%	5.20	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	24	24	129	545	110	83	17	100%	5.4	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	3.1%	5.39	5.39	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	132	558	119	73	17	100%	5.5	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	3.0%	5.12	5.01	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	134	565	124	67	17	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.89	4.78	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	134	565	126	65	17	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	132	557	124	64	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.5%	10.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	128	540	119	63	17	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.83	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	122	516	112	61	17	100%	6.1	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.3%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	115	485	104	59	17	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.2%	3.5%	5.05	5.14	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	51	32	8	100%	5.7	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	3.5%	5.37	5.26	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	82	44	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.5%	5.14	5.03	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	106	448	99	52	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	3.5%	5.03	4.97	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	112	473	105	55	17	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.5%	10.6%	3.5%	5.02	5.01	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	114	481	106	56	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.6%	5.06	5.09	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	111	469	102	56	18	100%	6.2	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.8%	5.18	5.24	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	106	448	96	55	18	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.2%	9.2%	4.0%	5.34	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	695	2935	643	349	107	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.15	4.76	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	100	31	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.15	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		75	71	290	1266	256	175	34	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	872	176	121	24	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	20.2%	15.2%	3.1%	—	4.84	21.8%	9.6%	400	-0.55	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	88
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	86
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	83
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	83
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	83
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.91	18.3%	8.6%	289	-1.35	3.70	470	82
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	128	21.6%	12.4%	1.21	4.96
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45