Kikito Severino prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Kikito Severino P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 145 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%20.8%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	15	10	53	247	59	28	1	67%	3.5	16.2%	14.2%	2.1%	0.6%	3.74	3.87	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	15	10	53	247	59	28	1	67%	3.5	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	0.4%	3.74	2.70	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	6	38	160	28	16	1	46%	2.9	11.9%	12.5%	-0.6%	1.0%	1.41	4.21	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	13	6	38	160	28	16	1	46%	2.9	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	0.6%	1.41	3.23	—
2023	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	5	44	218	35	36	4	23%	2.0	11.9%	19.5%	-7.6%	2.2%	6.18	5.78	—
2023	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	5	44	218	35	36	4	23%	2.0	11.9%	19.5%	-7.6%	2.2%	6.18	5.78	—
2023	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	5	44	218	35	36	4	23%	2.0	16.1%	16.5%	-0.5%	1.8%	6.18	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	13.7%	7.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	25	0	26	111	24	14	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.85	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	6	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	107	18	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		50	21	135	625	85	97	8	42%	2.7	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	1.3%	3.87	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	31	200	926	126	144	12	42%	2.7	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	1.3%	3.87	4.63	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kikito Severino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	20.8%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.4%	9.2%	26	-0.24	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	87
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	79
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	79
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	77
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	77
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	76
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	76
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	75
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	74
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	74
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	74
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	73
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	71
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	71
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	71
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.1%	12.9%	1.15	5.00
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57