Antwone Kelly — OGILVIE

Antwone Kelly P Indianapolis Indians

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 79 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%21.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP79

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	1.1%	4.14	3.67	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	1.3%	4.14	2.83	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	19.1%	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	2.31	4.58	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	28.2%	9.7%	18.4%	1.9%	2.31	3.01	—
2023	19	MIX	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.19	—
2023	19	MIX	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	0.0%	2.89	1.91	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	16.0%	13.4%	2.7%	3.2%	4.43	5.18	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	21.7%	11.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.20	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.02	3.38	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	1.4%	3.02	2.59	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	19	12	73	329	55	35	13	63%	3.8	15.4%	11.2%	4.2%	3.9%	5.18	5.37	-0.5
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	13	13	79	333	72	31	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+0.6
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	13	13	79	334	72	32	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	2.6%	4.29	4.29	+0.6
2026 TOT	22	MLB	PIT	—	—	152	662	127	66	22	—	—	19.1%	10.0%	9.1%	3.3%	4.72	4.81	+1.0
2026 FULL	22	MLB	PIT	—	—	83	351	127	66	22	—	—	36.1%	18.9%	17.2%	6.2%	8.61	5.84	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	PIT	25	25	132	558	121	49	16	100%	5.3	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.35	+1.6
2028	24	MLB	PIT	24	24	135	572	128	49	16	100%	5.6	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+1.8
2029	25	MLB	PIT	23	23	137	579	131	48	16	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	PIT	23	23	137	579	132	48	17	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.17	+2.0
2031	27	MLB	PIT	22	22	135	570	130	48	17	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+1.9
2032	28	MLB	PIT	22	22	131	553	126	47	17	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.29	+1.7
2033	29	MLB	PIT	21	21	125	528	119	46	17	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.35	4.42	+1.4
2034	30	MLB	PIT	20	20	118	496	110	45	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.50	4.60	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	PIT	18	18	110	463	101	44	17	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.80	+0.8
2036	32	MLB	PIT	17	17	101	428	91	42	16	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.8%	4.89	5.03	+0.4
2037	33	MLB	PIT	16	16	93	393	82	40	16	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	4.1%	5.12	5.28	-0.0
2027	23	MLB	PIT	23	23	125	528	114	47	15	100%	5.4	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+1.5
2028	24	MLB	PIT	23	23	129	545	122	46	15	100%	5.6	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.30	4.23	+1.8
2029	25	MLB	PIT	22	22	130	549	124	46	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.23	4.18	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	PIT	22	22	130	549	125	46	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.19	4.16	+1.9
2031	27	MLB	PIT	21	21	128	540	123	45	16	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	PIT	21	21	124	524	119	45	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.24	4.28	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	PIT	20	20	119	502	113	44	16	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.1%	4.34	4.41	+1.4
2034	30	MLB	PIT	19	19	112	473	105	43	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	3.3%	4.49	4.59	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	PIT	17	17	104	439	95	41	16	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	+0.7
2036	32	MLB	PIT	16	16	96	405	86	40	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.8%	4.88	5.02	+0.3
2037	33	MLB	PIT	15	15	88	372	77	38	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	4.1%	5.11	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			234	232	1370	5784	1279	515	182	99%	5.9	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.08	+21.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	845	187	75	27	99%	5.9	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.08	+3.1
Career	—			96	69	353	1499	271	168	35	72%	3.7	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.3%	3.80	4.27	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—			54	39	200	848	153	95	20	72%	3.7	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.3%	3.80	4.27	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antwone Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	21.6%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.26	22.2%	13.6%	405	-0.04	—	—	—
Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP-	3.64	21.0%	10.1%	1.9%	.285	5.72	19.1%	8.1%	178	+2.08	3.64	274	87
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP-	4.35	19.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.335	3.97	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.38	3.53	357	86
Rorik Maltrud R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	85
Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	19.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.257	4.28	11.0%	3.6%	131	-0.16	3.95	229	85
Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.71	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.17	2.72	229	85
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	85
Miguel Almonte R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP-	3.94	18.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.300	4.40	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.46	3.02	247	85
Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP-	3.37	24.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.290	4.39	21.2%	9.6%	215	+1.02	3.37	306	85
Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	22.5%	11.2%	2.1%	.290	4.70	21.0%	11.4%	138	+0.93	3.77	258	85
Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	22.8%	10.1%	2.0%	.339	3.40	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.17	3.40	233	84
Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	83
Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 3.24 FIP	22	SP-	3.24	21.9%	9.3%	1.5%	.306	4.30	20.7%	10.5%	221	+1.06	3.19	695	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	83
Bryce Mayer R 2027 · 3.30 FIP	23	SP-	3.30	23.4%	8.3%	2.1%	.304	4.80	27.2%	12.2%	52	+1.50	3.30	140	83
Max Gamboa R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	22	SP-	3.92	17.3%	9.5%	2.0%	.334	4.02	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.10	3.92	162	83
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	83
Carson Spiers R 2027 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP-	3.84	22.2%	8.8%	2.7%	.284	4.70	19.5%	10.5%	355	+0.86	3.69	497	83
Derek True R 2027 · 4.76 FIP	23	SP-	4.76	18.5%	10.5%	3.5%	.333	4.67	17.6%	5.9%	73	-0.09	4.50	170	83
Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP-	4.77	20.9%	9.3%	4.1%	.309	4.34	20.7%	10.5%	215	-0.43	3.91	330	83
Logan Martin R 2027 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.47	17.1%	5.7%	121	+0.54	3.93	223	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	123	22.2%	8.9%	1.21	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25