Antwone Kelly — OGILVIE

Antwone Kelly P Indianapolis Indians

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%20.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6055

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.1

Whiff%

p1012.4%

p1012.0%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$10M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$10M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+1.6	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$19M		$45M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	1.3%	4.14	3.82	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	1.3%	4.14	2.83	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	19.1%	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	2.31	4.55	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	28.2%	9.7%	18.4%	1.9%	2.31	3.01	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.19	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.19	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	0.0%	2.89	1.91	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	16.0%	13.4%	2.7%	3.3%	4.43	5.26	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	16.0%	13.4%	2.7%	3.3%	4.43	5.26	—
2024	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	21.7%	11.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.20	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.02	3.36	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.02	3.36	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	1.4%	3.02	2.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	11	50	6	4	2	0%	2.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	4.0%	6.35	5.39	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	17	103	453	77	53	14	61%	3.7	14.3%	10.6%	3.7%	3.4%	4.47	5.10	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	17	103	453	77	53	14	61%	3.7	14.3%	10.6%	3.7%	3.4%	4.47	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	PIT	23	17	91	403	71	49	12	74%	4.0	17.6%	12.2%	5.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.79	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	PIT	5	0	11	50	6	4	2	0%	2.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	4.0%	6.35	5.30	-0.1
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	PIT	5	0	11	50	6	4	2	0%	2.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	4.0%	6.35	5.30	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	8	32	7	3	1	100%	7.7	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.6%	4.03	4.03	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	PIT	1	1	8	34	7	3	1	100%	8.0	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.4%	3.92	3.92	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	110	485	84	56	15	—	—	17.2%	11.6%	5.7%	3.1%	4.44	5.02	-0.2
FULL	22	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	19	80	84	56	15	—	—	104.2%	69.9%	34.3%	18.4%	25.72	13.27	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	124	525	116	46	14	100%	5.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.7%	4.28	4.20	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	143	605	140	50	16	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	2.7%	4.15	4.07	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	157	664	157	54	18	100%	5.8	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	2.7%	4.06	4.00	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	164	693	165	56	19	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	2.7%	4.01	3.98	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	166	700	167	57	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.8%	4.01	4.02	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	166	700	166	58	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.06	4.10	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	158	668	157	57	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	149	628	145	55	20	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.2%	4.31	4.41	+0.9
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	118	498	111	43	13	100%	5.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.5%	4.17	4.09	+1.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	136	574	133	47	14	100%	5.7	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	2.5%	4.04	3.96	+1.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	149	629	148	51	16	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	2.5%	3.95	3.89	+1.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	156	659	157	53	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	2.5%	3.90	3.87	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	157	663	158	54	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.6%	3.90	3.91	+1.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	157	663	157	55	18	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	2.7%	3.94	3.98	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	150	633	149	54	18	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.04	4.11	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	141	595	138	52	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.28	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	200	1185	5006	1164	416	132	98%	5.8	23.3%	8.3%	14.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.64	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	845	196	70	22	98%	5.8	23.3%	8.3%	14.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.64	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		105	74	383	1623	285	180	38	70%	3.6	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.3%	3.71	4.30	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	39	200	848	149	94	20	70%	3.6	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.3%	3.71	4.30	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antwone Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	22.1%	9.6%	2.6%	—	4.08	23.0%	14.7%	425	-0.18	—	—	—
Seth Johnson R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP-	3.76	21.4%	9.8%	2.2%	.326	4.55	20.4%	7.7%	123	+0.79	3.38	349	87
Brock Stewart R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.9%	6.4%	3.2%	.343	3.46	20.9%	14.1%	304	-0.71	1.51	618	79
Luis Ortiz R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	22	SP	3.06	22.2%	8.8%	1.3%	.335	4.55	19.0%	10.0%	409	+1.49	3.06	585	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	77
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	76
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	76
Carson Seymour R 2022 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	22.4%	7.8%	2.2%	.295	4.44	19.5%	9.9%	360	+1.05	3.39	572	76
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Seranthony Domínguez R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	22.2%	13.3%	2.7%	.302	2.76	30.3%	21.0%	83	-1.64	2.38	484	76
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	75
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	75
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	75
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	75
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	75
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	75
Troy Melton R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	22	SP	3.31	18.9%	7.4%	1.6%	.299	4.24	22.3%	15.0%	330	+0.93	3.31	422	75
Adam Leverett R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP-	3.41	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.46	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.05	3.41	401	75
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	147	23.3%	8.4%	1.10	4.13
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45