Antwone Kelly — OGILVIE

Antwone Kelly P Indianapolis Indians

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.6 · 2030

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.2%

IP107

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	16.7%	11.0%	1.3%	4.14	3.78	+0.5
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	19.1%	12.1%	2.9%	2.31	4.59	+0.1
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	18.9%	13.3%	0.0%	2.89	3.19	+0.9
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	16.0%	13.4%	3.3%	4.43	5.28	-0.2
2025	21	AA	Altoona Curve	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	21.4%	8.7%	1.7%	3.02	3.35	+2.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	4	4	12	72	9	14	3	11.0%	20.4%	4.6%	9.75	7.27	-0.3
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	43	—	43	181	39	17	5	21.6%	9.4%	2.6%	4.28	4.28	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	PIT	—	—	55	253	48	31	8	19.0%	12.3%	3.1%	5.48	4.93	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	PIT	24	24	131	554	124	49	14	22.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.20	4.14	+1.7
2028	24	MLB	PIT	27	27	151	636	145	54	17	22.9%	8.5%	2.6%	4.11	4.05	+2.1
2029	25	MLB	PIT	30	30	164	695	161	58	18	23.2%	8.3%	2.6%	4.05	4.00	+2.4
2030	26	MLB	PIT	31	31	172	724	169	60	19	23.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.02	3.99	+2.5
2031	27	MLB	PIT	32	32	174	736	172	61	19	23.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.01	4.00	+2.6
2032	28	MLB	PIT	32	32	174	733	171	61	20	23.3%	8.3%	2.7%	4.02	4.03	+2.5
2033	29	MLB	PIT	31	31	170	717	166	60	19	23.2%	8.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.07	+2.4
2034	30	MLB	PIT	30	30	165	695	160	59	19	23.0%	8.5%	2.8%	4.10	4.13	+2.2
2035	31	MLB	PIT	29	29	159	670	153	58	19	22.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.16	4.21	+2.0
2036	32	MLB	PIT	28	28	152	643	145	56	19	22.5%	8.8%	2.9%	4.24	4.29	+1.7
2037	33	MLB	PIT	26	26	146	614	136	55	18	22.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.33	4.39	+1.5
2038	34	MLB	PIT	25	25	138	584	127	53	18	21.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.43	4.50	+1.3
2039	35	MLB	PIT	24	24	130	550	118	52	18	21.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.55	4.62	+1.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			81	61	292	1242	228	146	26	18.3%	11.8%	2.1%	3.69	4.18	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			55	42	200	850	156	100	18	18.3%	11.8%	2.1%	3.69	4.18	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antwone Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	21.6%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.06	22.8%	14.3%	446	-0.22	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	94
Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	94
Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	94
Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	93
Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	91
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	91
Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	91
Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	22	SU	3.55	22.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.324	3.08	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.47	3.07	194	90
Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	90
Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	90
Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	89
Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.89	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.39	3.18	144	89
Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	89
Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.57	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.44	3.39	214	89
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	88
Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SU	3.37	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.28	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.91	2.93	103	88
Joey Stock R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	20.4%	9.8%	1.6%	.275	5.00	22.5%	6.8%	95	+1.52	3.48	121	88
Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	88
Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	23	SU	3.64	20.5%	10.3%	1.8%	.246	3.81	21.2%	12.7%	169	+0.17	2.90	215	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$18M	+$17M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.4	$21M	+$20M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.6	$23M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+2.6	$24M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.5	$24M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+2.4	$24M	+$12M
Totals		$28M		$134M	+$106M