Seth Johnson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.41
FIP4.51
xFIP6.11
SIERA4.83
K%22.6%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%11.2%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†5555
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p6627.8%
K%
p9031.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.234
SI (7%)
CU (11%)
SL (33%)
FB-1.2 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Rays | 5 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 115 | 33 | 7 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 2.88 | 3.76 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 7 | 27 | 110 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 3.00 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 5 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.35 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 26 | 98 | 418 | 89 | 53 | 10 | 18.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 3.49 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 49 | 4 | 73 | 325 | 84 | 37 | 7 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 3.88 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 38 | 167 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 77 | 38 | 10 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 81 | 34 | 10 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 77 | 327 | 76 | 33 | 10 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 72 | 32 | 9 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 67 | 31 | 9 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 62 | 31 | 9 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 57 | 30 | 9 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 52 | 28 | 9 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 63 | 320 | 1372 | 302 | 159 | 33 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 4.04 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 39 | 200 | 857 | 189 | 99 | 21 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.39 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 239 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 78 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 78 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.27 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.97 | 2.28 | 186 | 78 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 1.5% | .236 | 3.42 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 91 | -0.68 | 2.11 | 300 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 77 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 76 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 76 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 74 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 74 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 74 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.48 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .417 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 104 | 74 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 74 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.0M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $12M | +$5M | ||