Seth Johnson

P Athletics

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	26	26	98	3.49	4.23	21.3%	12.7%	1.3	K 18.3% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.53
2025	26	MIX2 levels	49	4	73	4.66	3.56	25.8%	11.4%	0.9	K 23.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.73
2026	27	MIX2 levels	59	1	68	3.97	3.38	28.9%	11.3%	0.9	K 26.7% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.55
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	30	0	32	4.60	4.63	25.7%	12.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ81% MLB	29	MLBOAK	29	0	30	4.68	4.76	24.8%	12.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBOAK	23	0	24	4.82	4.93	24.0%	12.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%67

xwOBA vs34

Form6.23 ERA (proj 4.60) · K 25.6% (proj 25.7%) · BB 7.7% (proj 12.9%) ▲ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsDaniel Robert (age 28) · Shintaro Fujinami (age 29) · Trevor May (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.63

K%25.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	5	5	10	39	7	2	0	100%	2.0	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.23	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	5	5	10	39	7	2	0	100%	2.0	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.30	—
2021	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	16	94	397	115	33	7	70%	4.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.2%	2.88	3.76	—
2021	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	16	94	397	115	33	7	70%	4.1	29.0%	8.3%	20.7%	1.8%	2.88	2.67	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	7	27	110	41	11	4	100%	3.9	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	4.5%	3.00	4.58	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	7	27	110	41	11	4	100%	3.9	37.3%	10.0%	27.3%	3.6%	3.00	3.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	5	5	10	45	14	5	1	100%	2.1	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.10	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	5	5	10	45	14	5	1	100%	2.1	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	2.4%	3.49	4.53	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	2.4%	3.49	4.53	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	21.3%	12.7%	8.6%	2.4%	3.49	4.23	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	2.3%	4.66	3.73	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	2.3%	4.66	3.73	+0.7
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	25.8%	11.4%	14.5%	2.2%	4.66	3.56	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	68	301	87	34	7	2%	1.2	26.7%	10.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.97	3.55	+0.8
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	68	301	87	34	7	2%	1.2	26.7%	10.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.97	3.55	+0.8
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	1	68	301	87	34	7	2%	1.2	28.9%	11.3%	17.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.38	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	2	49	230	57	27	9	5%	1.2	24.8%	11.7%	13.0%	3.9%	6.84	4.83	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	30	0	32	135	35	17	4	0%	1.1	25.7%	12.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	35	0	37	155	38	20	5	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.76	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	28	0	29	123	30	16	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.8%	11.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.93	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	29	0	30	127	31	16	4	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.76	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	24	13	3	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.8%	11.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	2	103	459	113	56	17	2%	1.1	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	3.6%	5.74	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	4	200	892	220	109	33	2%	1.1	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	3.6%	5.74	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		174	64	380	1635	369	179	40	37%	2.2	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	2.4%	3.55	3.91	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	34	200	860	194	94	21	37%	2.2	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	2.4%	3.55	3.91	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 34 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.67 (+0.34)K% 32.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.87%	—	×0.860	28.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.79%	—	×0.900	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 61 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.63 (+0.27)K% 24.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.72%	—	×0.860	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.18%	—	×0.900	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.947	×1.100	1.71%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 73 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.51 (+0.59)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.10%	—	×0.810	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×1.100	13.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.137	×1.200	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 23 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.58 (+0.18)K% 19.6% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.59%	—	×0.860	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×0.900	12.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.989	×1.100	2.29%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 4 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.01 (+0.96)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.770	26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 27 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.58 (+1.36)K% 37.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.27%	—	×0.770	28.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.020	×1.250	4.46%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 94 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.76 (+1.08)K% 29.0% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.740	21.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.31%	—	×1.180	9.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.026	×1.300	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Rays · 10 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.88 (+0.65)K% 17.9% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.95%	—	×0.680	12.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.250	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.84	24.5%	11.7%	66	+0.21	—	—	—
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	73
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	477	70
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	771	70
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	68
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	68
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	381	68
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	67
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	67
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	67
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	67
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	67
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	67
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	67
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	66
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	66
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	66
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	66
Shawn Dubin R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	23.7%	12.6%	1.5%	.326	4.60	19.3%	11.7%	34	+1.09	3.02	341	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	39	24.9%	12.4%	1.33	5.36
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*