Seth Johnson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.10
FIP4.35
K%23.3%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%9.4%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.9
Whiff%
p6627.8%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SI (11%)
CU (10%)
SL (35%)
FB-1.2 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Rays | 5 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.23 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Rays | 5 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.30 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 115 | 33 | 7 | 70% | 4.1 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 2.88 | 3.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 115 | 33 | 7 | 70% | 4.1 | 29.0% | 8.3% | 20.7% | 1.8% | 2.88 | 2.67 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 7 | 27 | 110 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 3.9 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 4.4% | 3.00 | 4.53 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 7 | 27 | 110 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 3.9 | 37.3% | 10.0% | 27.3% | 3.6% | 3.00 | 3.21 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 5 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 2.1 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 5 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 2.1 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 98 | 418 | 89 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.4% | 13.6% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 3.49 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 98 | 418 | 89 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.49 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 73 | 325 | 84 | 37 | 7 | 8% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 3.95 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 73 | 325 | 84 | 37 | 7 | 8% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 4.66 | 3.56 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 37 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 54 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.29 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 13.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 13.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 75 | 321 | 88 | 41 | 7 | — | — | 27.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 3.78 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 46 | 193 | 88 | 41 | 7 | — | — | 45.5% | 21.3% | 24.2% | 3.6% | 6.24 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 63 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 59 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 53 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 56 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 1 | 239 | 1024 | 231 | 144 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 4.64 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 193 | 121 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 152 | 63 | 353 | 1510 | 340 | 176 | 35 | 41% | 2.3 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.47 | 3.94 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 193 | 100 | 20 | 41% | 2.3 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.47 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.03 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 188 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 73 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 71 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 71 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 70 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 23.8% | 16.1% | 1.8% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.26 | 256 | 69 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.31 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 186 | 69 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 69 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 69 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.14 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 1.5% | .236 | 3.39 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 91 | -0.75 | 2.23 | 367 | 69 |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 111 | 68 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 68 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 68 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.17 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.15 | 3.17 | 197 | 68 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 68 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.45 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .256 | 5.86 | 15.4% | -1.0% | 61 | +1.41 | 3.41 | 207 | 68 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 68 |
| Sean Isaac R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 68 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 68 |
| Austin Vernon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.1% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 261 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 1.13 | 4.85 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |