Seth Johnson — OGILVIE

Seth Johnson P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA3.99

FIP4.22

K%23.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL3540

CMD3030

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p6728.0%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

SI (9%)

CU (6%)

SL (38%)

FB-1.2 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	5	5	10	39	7	2	0	100%	2.0	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.23	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	5	5	10	39	7	2	0	100%	2.0	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.30	—
2021	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	16	94	397	115	33	7	70%	4.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.2%	2.88	3.76	—
2021	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	16	94	397	115	33	7	70%	4.1	29.0%	8.3%	20.7%	1.8%	2.88	2.67	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	7	27	110	41	11	4	100%	3.9	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	4.5%	3.00	4.58	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	7	27	110	41	11	4	100%	3.9	37.3%	10.0%	27.3%	3.6%	3.00	3.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	5	5	10	45	14	5	1	100%	2.1	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.10	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	5	5	10	45	14	5	1	100%	2.1	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.10	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	5	5	10	45	14	5	1	100%	2.1	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	18.1%	13.1%	5.1%	2.4%	3.49	4.54	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	18.1%	13.1%	5.1%	2.4%	3.49	4.54	+0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	98	418	89	53	10	100%	3.8	21.3%	12.7%	8.6%	2.4%	3.49	4.23	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	22.3%	10.4%	12.0%	2.3%	4.66	3.78	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	22.3%	10.4%	12.0%	2.3%	4.66	3.78	+0.7
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	4	73	325	84	37	7	8%	1.5	25.8%	11.4%	14.5%	2.2%	4.66	3.56	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	1	40	194	48	24	7	3%	1.2	24.7%	12.4%	12.4%	3.6%	7.65	4.78	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	54	0	59	265	78	31	5	0%	1.1	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	2.0%	4.10	3.38	+0.8
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	54	0	59	265	78	31	5	0%	1.1	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	2.0%	4.10	3.38	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	OAK	31	0	34	143	47	14	2	0%	1.1	32.9%	9.8%	23.1%	1.4%	2.10	2.33	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	OAK	23	0	25	122	31	17	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	13.9%	11.5%	2.5%	6.84	4.07	+0.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	OAK	23	0	25	122	31	17	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	13.9%	11.5%	2.5%	6.84	4.07	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	6	24	6	3	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.7%	3.99	4.22	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	OAK	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.7%	3.99	4.22	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	65	289	84	34	6	—	—	28.9%	11.8%	17.1%	2.0%	4.09	3.45	+0.9
FULL	27	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	31	130	84	34	6	—	—	64.5%	26.3%	38.2%	4.4%	8.65	3.37	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	63	0	66	278	63	36	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.0%	9.5%	2.8%	4.64	4.77	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	60	0	63	265	58	34	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.90	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	60	0	63	266	60	35	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.0%	9.5%	2.8%	4.64	4.77	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	57	0	60	253	56	33	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.90	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	1	168	734	168	94	23	1%	1.1	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	5.38	4.47	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	1	200	874	200	112	27	1%	1.1	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	5.38	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		169	63	372	1599	356	176	38	37%	2.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	2.3%	3.56	3.91	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	34	200	860	192	95	20	37%	2.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	2.3%	3.56	3.91	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.4%	13.1%	2.7%	—	4.83	22.3%	9.3%	129	+0.00	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	75
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	73
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	73
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	71
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	71
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	71
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	71
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	71
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	70
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	70
Daniel Robert R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	27	SU	4.20	24.3%	16.3%	2.0%	.312	3.23	23.7%	14.6%	130	-0.97	2.32	186	70
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	70
Tommy Nance R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	27	SU	4.09	18.6%	13.9%	1.5%	.236	3.47	23.3%	14.2%	91	-0.62	2.12	354	70
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	70
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	69
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	69
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	69
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	22.0%	13.0%	1.10	4.67
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84