Anderson De Los Santos
SS Chesapeake Baysox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 425 | .197/.313/.321 | 9 | 15 | 33 | — | .145/.235/.232 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+Aberdeen Iron… | 381 | .230/.361/.361 | 6 | 19 | 55 | — | .184/.281/.274 |
| 2026 | 22 | AABAL | 473 | .219/.347/.369 | 12 | 9 | 70 | — | .194/.291/.315 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBBAL | 4 | .198/.292/.312 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 135 | .203/.296/.325 | 3 | 3 | 75 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBBAL | 212 | .207/.299/.332 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 127 | 111 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 324 | 409 | 495 | 905 | 171 | 367 | 14 | 12 | 402 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 153 | 124 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 377 | 379 | 757 | 137 | 277 | 15 | 15 | 344 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 419 | 378 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 104 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 228 | 290 | 339 | 628 | 111 | 293 | 25 | 7 | 281 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 86 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 159 | 326 | 246 | 572 | 87 | 244 | 31 | 19 | 281 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 339 | 292 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 106 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 205 | 310 | 339 | 649 | 134 | 289 | 31 | 12 | 295 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 313 | 72 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 55 | 83 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 230 | 361 | 361 | 722 | 131 | 293 | 22 | 14 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 393 | 86 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 73 | 114 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 219 | 347 | 369 | 716 | 150 | 276 | 24 | 15 | 327 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 276 | 284 | 560 | 78 | 253 | 17 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 153 | 133 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 195 | 291 | 308 | 600 | 113 | 233 | 22 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 419 | 390 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 179 | 227 | 264 | 491 | 85 | 254 | 33 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 86 | 74 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 108 | 233 | 176 | 408 | 68 | 203 | 42 | 13 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 339 | 304 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 139 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 155 | 235 | 247 | 482 | 92 | 253 | 41 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 332 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 107 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 184 | 281 | 274 | 555 | 90 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 413 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 139 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 194 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 121 | 261 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 276 | 284 | 560 | 78 | 247 | 17 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 127 | 111 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 324 | 409 | 495 | 905 | 171 | 367 | 14 | 12 | 402 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 153 | 133 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 195 | 291 | 308 | 600 | 113 | 242 | 22 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 153 | 124 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 377 | 379 | 757 | 137 | 277 | 15 | 15 | 344 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 419 | 390 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 179 | 227 | 264 | 491 | 85 | 260 | 33 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 419 | 378 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 104 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 228 | 290 | 339 | 628 | 111 | 293 | 25 | 7 | 281 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 378 | 55 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 146 | 235 | 233 | 467 | 87 | 242 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 361 | 71 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 133 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 197 | 313 | 321 | 634 | 125 | 281 | 31 | 13 | 292 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 332 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 107 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 184 | 281 | 274 | 555 | 90 | 257 | 28 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 313 | 72 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 55 | 83 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 230 | 361 | 361 | 722 | 131 | 293 | 22 | 14 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 413 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 139 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 194 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 121 | 264 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 393 | 86 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 73 | 114 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 219 | 347 | 369 | 716 | 150 | 276 | 24 | 15 | 327 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 127 | 115 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 276 | 287 | 563 | 78 | 253 | 17 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 153 | 134 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 194 | 291 | 306 | 597 | 112 | 233 | 22 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 419 | 392 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 140 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 179 | 227 | 263 | 490 | 84 | 254 | 33 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 378 | 55 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 146 | 235 | 233 | 467 | 87 | 243 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 333 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 107 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 183 | 281 | 273 | 554 | 90 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 413 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 139 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 194 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 121 | 261 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 378 | 55 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 146 | 235 | 233 | 467 | 87 | 243 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 381 | 333 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 107 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 183 | 281 | 273 | 554 | 90 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 473 | 413 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 139 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 194 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 121 | 261 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 2% | 575 | 504 | 99 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 162 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 195 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 110 | 262 | 28 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 292 | 312 | 604 | 114 | 266 | 25 | 0 | 277 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 31% | 435 | 381 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 120 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 200 | 293 | 318 | 611 | 118 | 265 | 28 | 11 | 279 | 75 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 45% | 476 | 418 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 50 | 130 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 203 | 296 | 325 | 620 | 122 | 266 | 27 | 11 | 283 | 78 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 51% | 495 | 436 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 134 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 205 | 297 | 329 | 626 | 124 | 268 | 27 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 502 | 440 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 135 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 206 | 297 | 330 | 628 | 124 | 268 | 27 | 10 | 286 | 79 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 501 | 440 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 135 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 207 | 297 | 330 | 626 | 123 | 269 | 27 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 57% | 492 | 434 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 50 | 134 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 204 | 294 | 324 | 618 | 120 | 268 | 27 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 60% | 481 | 424 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 132 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 201 | 290 | 316 | 607 | 115 | 266 | 27 | 10 | 277 | 74 | -15 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 31% | 135 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 296 | 325 | 621 | 122 | 269 | 27 | 10 | 283 | 75 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 45% | 212 | 186 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 299 | 332 | 631 | 126 | 271 | 27 | 10 | 287 | 78 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 51% | 252 | 221 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 68 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 209 | 300 | 337 | 637 | 128 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 264 | 232 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 71 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 300 | 338 | 639 | 129 | 273 | 27 | 10 | 290 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 267 | 235 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 72 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 210 | 300 | 338 | 638 | 128 | 273 | 27 | 10 | 289 | 79 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 57% | 281 | 247 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 208 | 297 | 332 | 629 | 124 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 286 | 77 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 60% | 286 | 252 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 294 | 324 | 617 | 119 | 270 | 28 | 10 | 281 | 74 | -9 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1697 | 1492 | 311 | 65 | 7 | 36 | 174 | 461 | 18 | 26 | 13 | 208 | 299 | 334 | 632 | 125 | 274 | 27 | 10 | 287 | 67 | -46 | +0 | -2 | +18 | +37 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 120 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 67 | 177 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 210 | 301 | 338 | 639 | 128 | 277 | 27 | 10 | 287 | 67 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5570 | 4919 | 957 | 195 | 25 | 101 | 544 | 1596 | 63 | 120 | 64 | 195 | 283 | 306 | 589 | 111 | 263 | 29 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -99 | +1 | -4 | +38 | +78 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 112 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 63 | 186 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 195 | 282 | 308 | 591 | 113 | 264 | 29 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 473 PAwOBA .319 → .271 (−49)K% 24.1% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 11.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 18.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .319 → .271; ISO .150 → .125; BABIP .276 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 381 PAwOBA .323 → .250 (−73)K% 21.8% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.78% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.44% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 9.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .323 → .250; ISO .131 → .100; BABIP .293 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 339 PAwOBA .290 → .222 (−68)K% 31.3% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.27% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.80% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.04% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 2.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .290 → .222; ISO .134 → .102; BABIP .289 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 86 PAwOBA .275 → .200 (−75)K% 31.4% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.40% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.60% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 12.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 14.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .275 → .200; ISO .087 → .069; BABIP .244 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 419 PAwOBA .277 → .215 (−62)K% 24.8% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.82% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.40% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.17% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.101 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .277 → .215; ISO .111 → .083; BABIP .293 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Orioles · 153 PAwOBA .341 → .261 (−80)K% 15.0% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.03% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.03% | ÷1.031 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.83% | ÷0.967 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×1.022 | 14.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×1.022 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.56% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .341 → .261; ISO .137 → .109; BABIP .277 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Orioles 1 · 127 PAwOBA .389 → .265 (−124)K% 14.2% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.040 | ×1.022 | 19.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.040 | ×1.022 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.040 | ×1.022 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .389 → .265; ISO .171 → .098; BABIP .367 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).