Ethan Murray

SS Nashville Sounds
Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 201 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAMIL317.177/.274/.2532628—.160/.232/.220
202525AAA/AAMIL372.238/.354/.37691665—.205/.291/.304
202626AAAMIL405.233/.318/.3246953—.212/.275/.280
2027PROJ10% MLB27MLBMIL16.204/.275/.2880062-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB28MLBMIL69.204/.275/.2891162-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV80
Speed56
Chase%51
K%49
Z-Con%48
BB%47
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsAdam Engel (age 27) · Mason McCoy (age 27) · Alex De Goti (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .275 / .288
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%6
BABIP276
ISO93
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER50
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 ACarolina Mudcats — 132112 26323 17292 31 232344375719 143284 2213 325 59 — — — — — —
202121 ROKACL Brewers Blue — 2522 5100 320 00 227320273593 45250 812 280 24 — — — — — —
202222 AABiloxi Shuckers — 4235 9301 790 20 257381429810 171320 2117 365 88 — — — — — —
202222 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 360315 671915 34976 144 213301327628 114286 279 285 35 — — — — — —
202323 AABiloxi Shuckers — 413351 901636 53934 105 256359370730 114331 2313 331 79 — — — — — —
202424 AABiloxi Shuckers — 317277 491312 33784 62 177274253527 76237 2510 247 28 — — — — — —
202525 AAANashville Sounds — 114101 20201 10321 41 198277248524 50271 289 243 30 — — — — — —
202525 AABiloxi Shuckers — 258210 541218 39586 120 257388438826 181315 2215 369 80 — — — — — —
202626 AAANashville Sounds — 405352 821026 41933 96 233318324642 91293 2310 290 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 132117 22222 12402 31 188275291565 103256 309 255 59 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEACL Brewers Blue — 2523 4100 230 00 174240217457 43197 128 203 24 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 4237 9301 5110 20 243333405739 162296 2612 299 88 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 360323 531414 261266 144 164239251490 87240 357 220 35 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 413368 871835 371234 105 236313342655 106328 309 285 79 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 317287 461211 23964 62 160232220452 59232 307 209 28 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 114104 20201 7381 41 192250240490 48267 336 212 30 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 258223 471015 26766 120 211310332642 121282 2910 286 80 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 405364 77924 291123 96 212275280555 69274 287 247 53 — — — — — —
202121 A MLE2 teams — 157140 26322 14422 31 186269279548 93247 279 247 53 — — — — — —
202121 A RAW2 teams — 157134 31423 20312 31 231340358698 127277 2013 318 53 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE2 teams — 402360 611715 311376 164 169247264511 94252 348 228 41 — — — — — —
202222 A+ RAW2 teams — 402350 762216 411066 164 217310337647 120289 2610 293 41 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 413368 871835 371234 105 236313342655 106339 309 285 79 — — — — — —
202323 AA RAWBiloxi Shuckers — 413351 901636 53934 105 256359370730 114331 2313 331 79 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 317287 461211 23964 62 160232220452 59236 307 209 28 — — — — — —
202424 AA RAWBiloxi Shuckers — 317277 491312 33784 62 177274253527 76237 2510 247 28 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 372327 661216 331147 161 202289300589 98284 319 263 64 — — — — — —
202525 AA RAW2 teams — 372311 741419 49907 161 238354376730 138301 2413 330 64 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 405364 77924 291123 96 212275280555 69287 287 247 53 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAWNashville Sounds — 405352 821026 41933 96 233318324642 91293 2310 290 53 — — — — — —
202121 A MLE2 teams — 157140 26322 14422 31 186269279548 93247 279 247 53 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE2 teams — 402362 611715 311376 164 169247262509 94246 348 228 41 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 413369 871835 371234 105 236313341654 106328 309 285 79 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 317287 461211 23964 62 160232220452 59232 307 209 28 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 372329 661216 331147 161 201289298587 97277 319 263 64 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 405370 77924 291123 96 208275276551 68274 287 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 317287 461211 23964 62 160232220452 59232 307 209 28 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 372329 661216 331147 161 201289298587 97277 319 263 64 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 405370 77924 291123 96 208275276551 68274 287 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEMIL 10% 380343 721225 301064 83 206277290567 84280 288 260 62 -17 +0 +0 +4 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXMIL 10% 1615 2000 140 00 204275288562 84276 256 258 62 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEMIL 31% 222201 42713 17622 42 206277292569 85280 288 260 62 -10 +0 -1 +2 +5 -0.4
202828 MLB CTXMIL 31% 6963 13201 5191 10 204275289564 85276 287 258 62 -3 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6963 13201 5191 10 206275286561 79279 287 258 55 -3 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 1221909 471799 90 206274283557 78279 287 258 55 -29 +2 -2 +7 +14 -0.8
Career— MLE — 24432187 435831228 19672930 6722 199274286560 87281 308 250 55 -17 +0 -1 +4 +8 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 1152237 521948 186 198273282554 84280 308 250 55 -29 +0 -1 +7 +14 -0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 405 PAwOBA .287 → .247 (−39)K% 23.0% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.96%÷1.000×1.200——27.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.12%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0187.11%
HBP% /PA0.74%—×0.940—×1.0180.71%
Singles /BIP24.71%÷1.000×0.930×1.006×1.01823.54%
Doubles /BIP3.86%÷1.000×0.830×1.006×1.0183.28%
Triples /BIP0.77%÷1.000×0.970×1.006×1.0180.77%
Home runs /BIP2.32%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0181.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .287 → .247; ISO .091 → .073; BABIP .293 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 258 PAwOBA .363 → .286 (−76)K% 22.5% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.48%÷0.932×1.220——29.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.12%÷1.008×0.680—×0.99810.18%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.840—×0.9981.95%
Singles /BIP21.71%÷0.976×0.920×1.000×0.99820.42%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷1.091×0.910×1.000×0.9986.57%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷1.083×0.880×1.000×0.9980.53%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.170×0.800—×0.9983.59%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 117, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .363 → .286; ISO .181 → .132; BABIP .315 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 114 PAwOBA .242 → .212 (−29)K% 28.1% → 33.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.07%÷1.010×1.200——33.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.77%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0336.25%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.940—×1.0330.85%
Singles /BIP24.64%÷0.983×0.930×1.021×1.03324.59%
Doubles /BIP2.90%÷0.973×0.830×1.021×1.0332.61%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.021×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP1.45%÷1.111×0.700—×1.0330.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .242 → .212; ISO .050 → .037; BABIP .271 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 317 PAwOBA .242 → .209 (−33)K% 24.6% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.61%÷0.994×1.220——30.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.41%÷0.989×0.680—×1.0127.24%
HBP% /PA1.26%—×0.840—×1.0121.07%
Singles /BIP16.58%÷0.972×0.920×1.026×1.01216.29%
Doubles /BIP6.53%÷0.971×0.910×1.026×1.0126.36%
Triples /BIP0.50%÷0.900×0.880×1.026×1.0120.51%
Home runs /BIP1.01%÷1.198×0.800—×1.0120.68%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .242 → .209; ISO .076 → .066; BABIP .237 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 413 PAwOBA .324 → .285 (−40)K% 22.5% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.52%÷0.924×1.220——29.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.83%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0278.97%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.840—×1.0270.84%
Singles /BIP25.19%÷0.988×0.920×1.007×1.02724.25%
Doubles /BIP6.20%÷0.827×0.910×1.007×1.0277.06%
Triples /BIP1.16%÷0.900×0.880×1.007×1.0271.18%
Home runs /BIP2.33%÷1.055×0.800—×1.0271.81%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 65, 3B 80, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .324 → .285; ISO .114 → .106; BABIP .331 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 360 PAwOBA .281 → .220 (−61)K% 26.9% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.94%÷0.977×1.270——35.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.44%÷0.944×0.710—×1.0127.19%
HBP% /PA1.67%—×0.790—×1.0121.33%
Singles /BIP19.27%÷1.083×0.920×1.007×1.01216.67%
Doubles /BIP8.72%÷1.049×0.810×1.007×1.0126.86%
Triples /BIP0.46%÷0.900×0.850×1.007×1.0120.44%
Home runs /BIP2.29%÷0.885×0.800—×1.0122.10%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 117, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .281 → .220; ISO .114 → .091; BABIP .286 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 42 PAwOBA .356 → .299 (−57)K% 21.4% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷0.976×1.220——26.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷1.027×0.680—×1.04211.50%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP19.23%÷1.060×0.920—×1.04217.38%
Doubles /BIP11.54%÷0.973×0.910—×1.04211.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.880—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.012×0.800—×1.0423.17%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .299; ISO .171 → .154; BABIP .320 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACarolina Mudcats · 132 PAwOBA .320 → .255 (−65)K% 22.0% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.97%÷0.996×1.360——30.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.88%÷1.017×0.690—×1.0158.86%
HBP% /PA1.52%—×0.780—×1.0151.20%
Singles /BIP21.69%÷0.990×0.920×1.000×1.01520.46%
Doubles /BIP3.61%÷1.177×0.830×1.000×1.0152.59%
Triples /BIP2.41%÷1.052×0.910×1.000×1.0152.12%
Home runs /BIP3.61%÷0.974×0.800—×1.0153.01%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 135, 3B 110, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .320 → .255; ISO .143 → .112; BABIP .284 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).