Ethan MurraySS Nashville Sounds
Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 201 lbs AAA BB +10%HR +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.1 · 2028
wRC+†49
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .273 / .295
PA250
HR4
SB6
K%32
BB%8
MLB%10%
BAT: -14.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-15BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +7.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
4545
PWR
5050
SPD
5555
EYE
5060
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2028

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Arb-1$0.8M
2030Arb-2$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.2M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.4M
2033Ext / FA-deal$0.6M
Totals $-0.8M $-9M -$8M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202121 A2 teams 157141 27323 13422 31 .191.269.305.574 .113.247 278 .249 49 -9 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.3
202222 A+2 teams 402360 591615 311396 164 .164.242.256.497 .092.245 358 .225 30 -32 +2 +0 +4 +11 -1.5
202323 AABiloxi Shuckers 413369 831835 361354 105 .225.301.331.631 .106.338 339 .277 70 -14 +0 +0 +4 +12 0.2
202424 AABiloxi Shuckers 317287 451211 231024 62 .157.229.216.445 .059.238 327 .204 14 -31 +0 +0 +3 +9 -1.8
202525 AA2 teams 372327 661217 331177 161 .202.289.309.598 .107.285 319 .267 62 -16 +3 +0 +4 +11 0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
202626 AAANashville Sounds 4541 8000 2191 10 .195.250.195.445 .000.348 424 .207 17 -4 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.2
ROS26 MLBMIL 205184 37713 16673 51 .201.276.299.575 .098.289 338 .258 56 -10 +1 +0 +2 +6 -0.2
TOT26 MLBMIL 250225 45713 18864 61 .200.271.280.551 .080.304 347 .249 49 -15 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202727 MLB 25%MIL 336301 611215 28944 71 .203.279.299.578 .096.275 288 .268 63 -14 +1 +0 +4 +10 0.0
202828 MLB 37%MIL 364325 671316 311015 81 .206.285.308.593 .102.276 289 .271 66 -14 +1 -1 +4 +10 0.1
202929 MLB 47%MIL 373333 681316 321045 71 .204.284.303.587 .099.276 289 .272 66 -14 +1 -1 +4 +11 -0.0
203030 MLB 55%MIL 378338 691316 321065 61 .204.283.302.584 .098.275 288 .270 65 -15 +1 -2 +4 +11 -0.2
203131 MLB 66%MIL 369329 661216 321055 50 .201.281.298.579 .097.274 289 .266 62 -16 +1 -3 +4 +10 -0.3
203232 MLB 83%MIL 354317 631215 301024 30 .199.276.290.567 .091.272 298 .262 58 -17 +1 -4 +4 +10 -0.6
203333 MLBMIL 326291 561014 28974 20 .192.272.275.547 .082.271 309 .256 54 -17 +0 -4 +3 +9 -0.8
203434 MLBMIL 284255 49914 24873 20 .192.270.282.552 .090.269 318 .250 50 -16 +0 -5 +3 +8 -1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 46504157 8161621766 389139861 9618 .196.275.291.566 .095.276 308 .258 55 -234 +12 -20 +50 +132 -6.2
/ 162G 650581 1142329 541959 133 .196.275.289.564 .093.276 308 .258 55 -33 +1 -3 +7 +18 -0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202121 ACarolina Mudcats 132112 26323 17292 31 .232.344.375.719 .143.284 2213 .325 107 +1 +0 +4 0.5
202121 ROKACL Brewers Blue 2522 5100 320 00 .227.320.273.593 .045.250 812 .280 72 -1 +0 +1 -0.0
202222 AABiloxi Shuckers 4235 9301 790 20 .257.381.429.810 .171.320 2117 .365 138 +2 +0 +1 0.3
202222 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers 360315 671915 34976 144 .213.301.327.628 .114.286 279 .285 76 -10 +1 +10 0.2
202323 AABiloxi Shuckers 413351 901636 53934 105 .256.359.370.730 .114.331 2313 .331 111 +5 +0 +12 1.7
202424 AABiloxi Shuckers 317277 491312 33784 62 .177.274.253.527 .076.237 2510 .247 47 -19 +0 +9 -1.0
202525 AAANashville Sounds 114101 20201 10321 41 .198.277.248.524 .050.271 289 .243 44 -7 +0 +3 -0.4
202525 AABiloxi Shuckers 258210 541218 39586 120 .257.388.438.826 .181.315 2215 .369 140 +12 +2 +7 2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Ethan Murray (OGILVIE) 26 45 50 55 60 .195/.273/.295 .100.281 46 32% 8% 59 -0.5
Drew Jackson
2019 · AA
26 42→45 44→45 50→55 43 .210/.281/.323 .113.279 1117 28% 7% 69 -0.4 .198/.276/.314 .116.288 1220 33% 8% 65 -0.7 .181/.268/.277.096.287102537%9%49-0.8
Danny Worth
2012 · MLB
26 46→53 41→45 51→50 42 .222/.271/.319 .097.291 815 26% 6% 62 -0.9 .211/.274/.310 .099.297 715 29% 8% 62 -0.9 .222/.290/.321.098.3257931%8%68-0.3
Tony Thomas
2012 · AAA
26 41→46 46→50 52→55 39 .208/.257/.340 .133.277 1315 30% 5% 63 -0.9 .203/.249/.338 .135.283 1317 32% 5% 58 -1.2 .196/.242/.333.137.279121633%5%51-1.2
Kelvin Gutiérrez
2021 · MLB
26 47→55 43→45 55→50 41 .229/.278/.336 .108.307 1216 29% 6% 69 -0.4 .227/.279/.334 .107.299 108 26% 6% 69 -0.4 .223/.276/.324.101.2919526%6%63-0.5
Alex De Goti
2022 · AAA
27 42→46 43→45 49→50 43 .206/.269/.317 .110.278 108 28% 7% 61 -1.0 .201/.276/.293 .092.275 79 27% 9% 59 -1.1 .191/.273/.268.077.25961026%9%48-1.1
Tyler Henson
2014 · AAA
26 44→51 42→45 49→55 39 .211/.267/.316 .106.311 911 34% 6% 59 -1.1 .222/.267/.330 .108.312 919 30% 5% 63 -0.8 .219/.260/.315.096.29672427%4%54-1.1
Corey Toups
2018 · AAA
25 44→47 43→45 55→50 40 .212/.271/.329 .117.297 1017 31% 6% 65 -0.7 .203/.266/.307 .104.321 1015 37% 7% 58 -1.2 .177/.247/.258.081.30091941%7%34-1.3
Mike Ahmed
2018 · AAA
26 44→46 45→50 46→50 44 .216/.285/.341 .124.300 1311 31% 8% 74 -0.1 .205/.263/.320 .115.324 128 38% 6% 59 -1.1 .187/.242/.291.104.30610640%5%41-1.0
Tyler Goeddel
2019 · MLB
26 43→49 41→45 51→55 45 .209/.273/.307 .098.268 812 24% 7% 60 -1.0 .200/.263/.289 .089.299 78 33% 7% 52 -1.6 .162/.232/.217.055.2812240%7%19-1.5
J.E. Cruz
2007 · AA
26 44→48 41→45 51→45 46 .213/.282/.313 .099.287 78 27% 8% 66 -0.6 .208/.280/.310 .102.281 78 27% 8% 65 -0.7 .183/.263/.285.102.2467726%7%51-0.9
Jacob Buchberger
2023 · AA
25 47→46 41→45 53→50 45 .225/.282/.322 .097.294 812 25% 7% 68 -0.5 .210/.272/.320 .110.287 1213 29% 7% 63 -0.8 .195/.260/.302.107.269131331%7%50-1.2
Matthew Batten
2021 · AAA
26 47→49 40→45 47→55 40 .223/.274/.315 .092.315 813 31% 6% 63 -0.9 .218/.283/.308 .090.313 923 31% 8% 65 -0.7 .209/.285/.299.091.29492730%9%60-0.8
JaCoby Jones
2018 · MLB
26 43→47 44→50 52→50 37 .210/.262/.326 .116.316 1116 36% 6% 60 -1.0 .218/.279/.369 .151.302 1514 31% 6% 79 +0.3 .222/.290/.398.176.297181330%6%88+0.5
Gosuke Katoh
2021 · AAA
26 45→49 42→45 47→50 44 .218/.283/.319 .101.312 1012 32% 8% 68 -0.5 .219/.281/.335 .116.299 1111 29% 7% 71 -0.3 .210/.275/.325.115.283101028%7%62-0.5
Hunter Stovall
2023 · AA
26 50→49 42→45 51→50 43 .240/.289/.350 .110.317 916 27% 6% 78 +0.2 .227/.274/.322 .095.279 915 21% 6% 64 -0.8 .218/.266/.302.084.25991619%6%52-1.0
Paul Gran
2012 · AA
26 46→45 42→45 49→50 40 .220/.281/.332 .112.303 99 29% 6% 70 -0.3 .207/.278/.313 .106.301 810 32% 6% 65 -0.7 .194/.275/.284.090.28771032%6%56-0.9
Arquímedes Gamboa
2023 · AAA
25 42→43 42→40 53→50 47 .203/.276/.304 .102.285 912 31% 9% 61 -1.0 .206/.288/.308 .102.305 915 32% 10% 68 -0.5 .196/.288/.293.097.29491733%11%61-0.6
Richie Martin Jr.
2021 · MLB
26 47→53 43→45 54→60 42 .231/.283/.344 .113.295 1018 25% 6% 73 -0.1 .214/.281/.313 .099.287 725 26% 7% 66 -0.6 .203/.282/.295.092.28044026%7%58-0.7
Seth Bynum
2007 · AA
26 44 39→55 48→50 43 .209/.269/.296 .087.292 611 29% 7% 56 -1.3 .217/.266/.340 .123.294 137 30% 6% 66 -0.6 .219/.261/.365.147.28918531%5%68-0.4
Hunter Jones
2018 · AA
26 43→53 40→45 54→55 42 .208/.264/.303 .095.271 717 26% 6% 56 -1.3 .224/.280/.321 .097.295 813 25% 6% 66 -0.6 .232/.288/.317.085.30771325%6%66-0.3