Ethan Murray — OGILVIE

Ethan MurraySS Nashville Sounds

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 201 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION382 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP275

ISO84

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	132	112	26	3	2	3	17	29	2	3	1	232	344	375	719	143	284	22	13	325	106	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	21	ROK	ACL Brewers Blue	—	25	22	5	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	227	320	273	593	45	250	8	12	280	76	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2022	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	42	35	9	3	0	1	7	9	0	2	0	257	381	429	810	171	320	21	17	365	133	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	360	315	67	19	1	5	34	97	6	14	4	213	301	327	628	114	286	27	9	285	79	-9	+1	—	—	+8	-0.0
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	351	90	16	3	6	53	93	4	10	5	256	359	370	730	114	331	23	13	331	110	+5	+0	—	—	+9	1.4
2024	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	277	49	13	1	2	33	78	4	6	2	177	274	253	527	76	237	25	10	247	53	-18	+0	—	—	+7	-1.1
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	114	101	20	2	0	1	10	32	1	4	1	198	277	248	524	50	271	28	9	243	51	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	25	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	258	210	54	12	1	8	39	58	6	12	0	257	388	438	826	181	315	22	15	369	136	+11	+2	—	—	+6	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	132	118	22	2	2	2	11	40	2	3	1	186	267	288	555	102	252	30	8	252	57	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	—	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	174	240	217	457	43	200	12	8	206	26	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	42	37	8	3	0	1	5	11	0	2	0	216	310	378	688	162	282	26	12	287	80	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	360	323	51	14	1	4	26	134	6	14	4	158	234	245	478	87	237	37	7	213	30	-30	+1	—	—	+8	-2.1
2023	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	368	83	16	3	4	37	123	4	10	5	226	303	318	621	92	322	30	9	279	75	-12	+0	—	—	+9	-0.3
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	287	46	12	1	1	23	96	4	6	2	160	232	220	452	59	230	30	7	207	26	-28	+0	—	—	+7	-2.1
2025	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	114	104	19	2	0	1	7	38	1	4	1	183	241	231	472	48	258	33	6	206	26	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	258	222	46	9	1	5	27	76	6	12	0	207	310	324	634	117	284	29	10	287	80	-6	+2	—	—	+6	0.2
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	157	141	26	3	2	2	13	42	2	3	1	184	263	277	539	92	245	27	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	157	134	31	4	2	3	20	31	2	3	1	231	340	358	698	127	277	20	13	318	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	402	361	58	16	1	5	30	145	6	16	4	161	237	252	489	91	247	36	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	402	350	76	22	1	6	41	106	6	16	4	217	310	337	647	120	289	26	10	293	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	368	83	16	3	4	37	123	4	10	5	226	303	318	621	92	325	30	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	351	90	16	3	6	53	93	4	10	5	256	359	370	730	114	331	23	13	331	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	287	46	12	1	1	23	96	4	6	2	160	232	220	452	59	236	30	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	277	49	13	1	2	33	78	4	6	2	177	274	253	527	76	237	25	10	247	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	326	66	11	1	6	34	114	7	16	1	202	292	298	589	95	286	31	9	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	372	311	74	14	1	9	49	90	7	16	1	238	354	376	730	138	301	24	13	330	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	157	141	26	3	2	2	13	42	2	3	1	184	263	277	539	92	244	27	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	402	363	58	16	1	5	30	145	6	16	4	160	237	251	487	91	242	36	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	369	83	16	3	4	37	123	4	10	5	225	303	317	620	92	322	30	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	287	46	12	1	1	23	96	4	6	2	160	232	220	452	59	230	30	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	328	66	11	1	6	34	114	7	16	1	201	292	296	587	95	276	31	9	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	369	83	16	3	4	37	123	4	10	5	225	303	317	620	92	322	30	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	287	46	12	1	1	23	96	4	6	2	160	232	220	452	59	230	30	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	328	66	11	1	6	34	114	7	16	1	201	292	296	587	95	276	31	9	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	MIL	—	382	345	73	7	2	4	26	104	2	9	5	212	271	278	549	67	284	27	7	244	51	-22	-0	+0	+4	+8	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA RAW	MIL	—	382	333	79	8	2	6	38	87	2	9	5	237	319	327	646	90	297	23	10	291	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AAA MLE	MIL	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		277	33	11	251	56	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						275	0	0	245	56	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIL	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	245	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AAA MLE	MIL	—	391	353	74	7	2	4	27	107	2	9	5	210	270	275	544	65	282	27	7	244	51	-23	-0	+0	+4	+8	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	31%	336	304	63	9	1	5	26	92	3	7	3	207	276	293	569	86	278	27	8	259	62	-15	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	42%	364	329	69	10	2	5	29	99	3	7	3	210	280	298	578	88	279	27	8	263	64	-15	+0	-1	+4	+8	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	31%	104	94	19	3	0	1	8	29	1	2	1	202	272	266	538	64	276	28	8	253	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	42%	153	139	29	4	1	2	12	42	1	3	1	209	276	295	571	86	277	27	8	257	64	-7	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	258	234	48	7	1	3	20	71	2	5	2	205	273	282	555	77	278	28	8	255	55	-11	+0	-0	+3	+6	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	122	18	3	8	50	179	5	13	5	207	274	288	563	81	279	28	8	255	55	-29	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2370	2124	412	77	11	28	193	714	29	65	19	194	270	280	550	86	275	30	8	249	55	-31	+0	-1	+8	+15	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	113	21	3	8	53	196	8	18	5	194	270	281	551	87	274	30	8	249	55	-29	+0	-1	+7	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	282	4	6	208	275	295	+3	+3	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	9	14	+7.1	+7.1	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Murray (OGILVIE)	26	45	50	55	60	201/268/276	74	277	3	6	28%	7%	56	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Worth 2012 · MLB	26	46→53	41→45	52→50	43	223/275/321	98	292	8	16	26%	6%	68	-1.0	207/271/299	92	297	6	15	30%	8%	62	-1.4	223/291/322	99	325	7	9	31%	8%	72	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	194/257/310	116	274	9	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	221/275/344	123	302	11	17	29%	5%	74	-0.5	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Pete Kozma 2014 · MLB	26	44→47	39→40	46→50	47	211/264/296	86	259	6	6	21%	7%	59	-1.7	206/265/285	79	253	6	11	20%	7%	57	-1.8	194/243/282	88	241	5	6	21%	5%	46	-1.7
✕Nick Meyer 2023 · AAA	26	46	41→40	50	49	221/295/315	94	282	9	17	24%	8%	76	-0.4	213/282/309	96	278	11	14	26%	8%	69	-0.9	183/254/245	62	238	9	12	26%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Jacob Buchberger 2023 · AA	25	46→45	41→45	53→50	45	224/282/320	96	297	8	13	26%	7%	71	-0.8	213/274/319	106	289	11	13	28%	7%	68	-1.0	203/266/306	103	275	11	13	29%	7%	59	-1.2
✕Eric Stamets 2018 · AAA	26	41→51	44→45	53→50	41	208/263/323	115	270	11	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	196/250/299	103	273	9	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	159/225/248	89	228	8	16	33%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Errol Robinson 2021 · AAA	26	45→49	40	46→55	42	218/270/301	83	289	8	13	27%	6%	62	-1.4	206/279/277	71	320	5	17	34%	9%	61	-1.5	205/278/253	49	316	3	26	33%	9%	52	-0.7
✕Matt Williams 2016 · AAA	26	46→48	37→40	48→50	50	216/288/286	70	271	5	15	21%	8%	65	-1.2	216/277/299	83	268	5	14	20%	7%	64	-1.3	212/270/291	79	260	4	15	19%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Ryan Klosterman 2008 · AA	26	41→46	42→45	55	44	204/268/312	109	262	9	20	26%	6%	65	-1.2	210/273/311	101	275	9	15	25%	7%	66	-1.1	207/273/306	99	272	9	14	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Erick Monzon 2008 · AA	26	42→44	43→45	50	45	209/262/322	113	259	10	9	23%	7%	64	-1.3	193/244/288	95	267	10	12	30%	6%	49	-2.4	167/217/246	79	235	10	14	32%	6%	27	-1.7
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	183/248/269	86	262	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	15	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Mycal Jones 2013 · AA	26	42→47	40→45	49→55	43	203/261/296	93	264	7	18	25%	6%	58	-1.7	219/276/301	82	280	5	22	22%	6%	64	-1.3	224/284/303	79	284	5	24	22%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Angelo Castellano 2021 · AA	26	39→44	39→45	47→50	41	192/246/277	85	255	7	12	27%	6%	48	-2.5	199/261/296	97	255	10	12	25%	7%	58	-1.7	201/270/309	108	245	12	14	23%	8%	62	-0.7
✕J.P. Sportman 2018 · AA	26	46→48	42→45	50	39	226/262/332	107	287	9	13	25%	4%	66	-1.1	226/262/354	128	287	13	14	25%	4%	72	-0.7	225/253/361	136	279	15	17	25%	3%	68	-0.8
✕Kyle Johnson 2016 · AAA	26	44→52	39→40	50→55	43	209/274/297	88	284	5	18	27%	6%	63	-1.3	196/257/282	86	277	6	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	167/230/232	65	234	5	8	29%	6%	29	-1.8
✕Drew Jackson 2018 · AA	25	43→45	40→45	49→55	43	209/276/302	93	278	8	15	27%	6%	65	-1.2	200/272/308	108	283	11	17	31%	7%	65	-1.2	190/275/303	113	271	12	26	32%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	42→45	51→50	44	208/272/316	108	281	8	8	28%	7%	67	-1.1	202/279/294	92	275	7	10	27%	9%	65	-1.2	192/275/269	77	260	6	10	26%	9%	55	-1.1
✕Mason McCoy 2022 · AAA	27	43→50	40→45	53→55	39	206/252/305	98	293	7	13	31%	6%	56	-1.9	196/256/317	121	289	12	21	34%	7%	61	-1.5	203/264/296	93	291	8	29	31%	7%	56	-1.5
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2014 · AA	26	45→49	39→40	52→55	42	215/262/303	87	277	5	19	24%	6%	59	-1.6	230/271/308	78	290	3	14	21%	5%	63	-1.3	236/273/307	70	292	2	12	19%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Donny Lucy 2009 · MLB	26	45	41→40	52→50	41	221/271/314	93	290	9	13	26%	5%	65	-1.2	199/242/284	85	271	7	8	28%	4%	47	-2.5	177/219/247	70	239	6	5	28%	4%	28	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps