Ethan Murray — OGILVIE

Ethan MurraySS Nashville Sounds

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 201 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION211 act + 140 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .279 / .284

PA140

HR2

K%31

BB%9

BABIP294

ISO79

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	157	141	25	2	2	2	13	43	2	3	1	177	256	262	519	85	237	27	8	242	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	157	134	31	4	2	3	20	31	2	3	1	231	340	358	698	127	277	20	13	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	402	359	55	15	1	6	32	149	6	16	4	153	234	251	485	97	236	37	8	217	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	402	350	76	22	1	6	41	106	6	16	4	217	310	337	647	120	289	26	10	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	368	83	19	3	4	37	141	4	10	5	226	303	326	629	101	351	34	9	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	351	90	16	3	6	53	93	4	10	5	256	359	370	730	114	331	23	13	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	287	46	12	1	1	23	102	4	6	2	160	232	220	452	59	243	32	7	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	277	49	13	1	2	33	78	4	6	2	177	274	253	527	76	237	25	10	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	372	326	64	10	1	6	34	124	7	16	1	196	286	288	574	92	290	33	9	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	372	311	74	14	1	9	49	90	7	16	1	238	354	376	730	138	301	24	13	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	MIL	—	211	188	45	4	0	3	18	64	1	4	2	239	309	309	618	69	339	30	9	275	69	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
YTD	26	AAA	MIL	—	211	180	49	5	0	3	26	53	1	4	2	272	367	350	717	78	362	25	12	325	107	+2	+0	+0	+2	+6	1.0
ROS	26	AAA	MIL	10%	140	126	26	4	0	2	12	44	1	3	1	205	279	284	563	79	296	31	9	261	58	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB	MIL	10%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		294	29	7	252	51	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AAA	MIL	—	225	201	47	4	0	3	19	68	1	4	2	234	303	299	602	65	331	30	8	274	68	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
TOT	26	AAA	MIL	—	351	314	71	8	0	5	30	108	2	7	3	226	297	299	596	73	321	31	9	269	64	-14	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	MIL	31%	336	301	64	10	1	5	29	102	3	7	2	213	288	302	591	90	298	30	9	268	63	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	MIL	42%	364	326	69	11	1	5	32	108	3	7	2	212	288	298	586	86	297	30	9	271	66	-14	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.0
2029	29	MLB	MIL	46%	373	333	72	12	1	6	33	110	4	7	2	216	295	312	607	96	296	29	9	272	66	-14	+1	-1	+4	+11	-0.0
2027	27	MLB	MIL	31%	104	93	19	3	0	1	9	31	1	2	1	204	282	269	550	65	296	30	9	259	56	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	28	MLB	MIL	42%	153	138	29	5	0	2	13	46	1	3	1	210	283	290	573	80	295	30	8	262	59	-7	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	29	MLB	MIL	46%	172	153	32	5	0	3	15	51	2	3	1	209	288	301	589	92	294	30	9	263	60	-8	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	443	397	82	13	0	6	38	132	4	8	3	207	282	285	567	78	290	30	9	261	58	-21	+0	-1	+5	+13	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	120	19	0	9	56	194	6	12	4	206	282	285	567	79	289	30	9	261	58	-31	+1	-1	+7	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	2874	2567	504	95	11	37	245	923	34	75	20	196	275	285	560	89	287	32	9	253	52	-156	+7	-2	+31	+81	-4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	113	21	2	8	55	209	8	17	5	194	273	279	552	84	285	32	8	253	52	-35	+1	-0	+7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	132	112	26	3	2	3	17	29	2	3	1	232	344	375	719	143	284	22	13	325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2021	21	ROK	ACL Brewers Blue	—	25	22	5	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	227	320	273	593	45	250	8	12	280	72	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2022	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	42	35	9	3	0	1	7	9	0	2	0	257	381	429	810	171	320	21	17	365	138	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	360	315	67	19	1	5	34	97	6	14	4	213	301	327	628	114	286	27	9	285	76	-10	+1	—	—	+10	0.2
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	413	351	90	16	3	6	53	93	4	10	5	256	359	370	730	114	331	23	13	331	111	+5	+0	—	—	+12	1.7
2024	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	317	277	49	13	1	2	33	78	4	6	2	177	274	253	527	76	237	25	10	247	47	-19	+0	—	—	+9	-1.0
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	114	101	20	2	0	1	10	32	1	4	1	198	277	248	524	50	271	28	9	243	44	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2025	25	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	258	210	54	12	1	8	39	58	6	12	0	257	388	438	826	181	315	22	15	369	140	+12	+2	—	—	+7	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	454	7	9	212	286	302	+5	+3	-0.0	-0.0
	/162	664	10	13	212	286	302	+7.1	+4.4	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Murray (OGILVIE)	26	45	50	55	60	226/297/299	73	321	5	7	31%	9%	64	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	39	193/255/310	117	277	9	24	33%	6%	54	-1.4	219/273/343	124	300	11	17	30%	5%	70	-0.3	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Danny Worth 2012 · MLB	26	46→52	42→45	52→50	43	225/277/332	106	293	9	16	26%	6%	68	-0.5	208/271/306	98	297	7	15	30%	7%	59	-1.1	221/288/315	95	324	7	9	32%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Hunter Jones 2018 · AA	26	42→52	41→45	53→55	41	207/264/307	99	272	8	16	26%	6%	56	-1.3	219/275/315	96	291	8	13	26%	6%	63	-0.9	225/280/310	85	299	6	13	25%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Tyler Goeddel 2019 · MLB	26	42→50	40→45	51→55	44	205/267/295	91	267	7	12	25%	6%	55	-1.4	199/260/288	89	303	7	8	34%	6%	50	-1.8	161/226/217	56	280	2	2	40%	6%	16	-1.5
✕Jimmy Herron 2022 · AA	26	40→45	39→45	50→55	47	194/272/281	87	265	6	15	28%	9%	54	-1.4	216/292/348	132	270	14	21	25%	8%	80	+0.4	212/289/340	128	261	15	24	24%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Mycal Jones 2013 · AA	26	41→45	41→45	49→55	42	202/260/302	100	267	8	18	27%	6%	53	-1.5	215/271/304	89	279	6	22	24%	6%	59	-1.1	219/277/306	87	283	6	24	24%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Kyle Johnson 2016 · AAA	26	43→51	39→40	50→55	43	206/272/295	88	284	5	18	28%	6%	57	-1.2	193/254/279	86	274	7	11	30%	6%	45	-2.1	162/225/224	63	227	5	8	29%	6%	16	-1.9
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2022 · AA	27	43→47	40→45	52→60	43	205/279/305	101	295	6	20	31%	7%	63	-0.8	197/283/312	115	286	13	26	33%	8%	68	-0.5	172/273/285	113	252	14	31	35%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Seth Bynum 2007 · AA	26	44	38→55	47→50	43	208/270/292	83	295	5	11	30%	7%	55	-1.4	216/264/343	127	292	14	7	30%	6%	66	-0.6	217/259/365	148	287	18	5	31%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Matt Lipka 2018 · AAA	26	41→51	41→45	54→60	39	204/250/302	99	266	8	18	26%	4%	49	-1.8	211/262/315	104	282	8	22	27%	6%	57	-1.2	230/283/343	114	308	11	31	28%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Yusniel Díaz 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	43→45	46→50	41	209/266/311	102	293	12	12	32%	7%	59	-1.1	234/305/382	148	295	17	12	25%	9%	94	+1.3	246/322/413	168	301	19	8	24%	10%	105	+1.4
✕Matt Williams 2016 · AAA	26	45→49	37→45	48→50	49	215/285/287	72	273	5	15	22%	8%	60	-1.0	216/277/303	87	270	6	14	21%	7%	60	-1.0	212/271/296	84	261	5	15	20%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2016 · AAA	25	45	38→45	51→50	41	215/261/298	83	295	4	10	28%	6%	52	-1.6	231/289/308	77	317	6	6	27%	7%	67	-0.5	227/288/285	58	316	5	2	28%	7%	56	-0.5
✕Jacob Buchberger 2023 · AA	25	46	41→45	54→50	45	224/281/321	97	293	8	13	26%	7%	67	-0.5	209/271/315	106	292	11	13	30%	7%	62	-0.9	195/259/298	102	276	12	13	32%	7%	49	-1.3
✕Jorge Mateo 2021 · MLB	26	41→46	43→50	55→65	35	204/241/321	118	292	9	20	33%	4%	50	-1.8	219/264/352	133	289	12	31	28%	5%	68	-0.5	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕J.E. Cruz 2007 · AA	26	45→48	41→45	51→45	46	214/283/314	100	288	7	8	27%	8%	66	-0.6	208/279/310	102	281	7	8	27%	7%	64	-0.8	180/259/282	102	241	7	7	27%	7%	49	-1.0
✕Angelo Castellano 2021 · AA	26	38→47	41→45	47→50	40	190/243/283	93	253	8	12	28%	6%	41	-2.3	200/261/306	106	256	12	12	26%	7%	56	-1.3	205/273/329	124	247	15	14	23%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Tyler Henson 2014 · AAA	26	44→51	42→45	49→55	38	208/264/318	110	320	9	11	36%	6%	59	-1.1	221/265/328	107	305	9	20	29%	5%	62	-0.9	219/260/316	97	291	8	24	26%	5%	54	-1.1
✕Logan Warmoth 2022 · AAA	26	40	40→45	52→55	40	184/266/276	92	316	8	18	41%	8%	51	-1.7	203/278/314	111	301	11	21	34%	8%	65	-0.7	195/273/297	102	277	11	24	31%	8%	57	-0.7