Alonzo Tredwell

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #365

Scout OFP44ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AHOU	17	14	57	5.37	3.43	26.1%	14.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 17.4% · FIP 4.43
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	16	100	3.69	3.18	28.6%	10.5%	—	K 22.0% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.19
2026	24	AAHOU	4	4	9	10.61	10.39	8.0%	42.0%	—	K 6.5% · BB 46.2% · FIP 9.72
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	21	21	120	5.64	5.64	19.8%	17.9%	-1.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	9	9	53	5.48	5.46	20.4%	16.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	12	12	75	5.40	5.41	20.5%	16.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control47Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJ.P. France (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Bryce Conley (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%19.8%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP120

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	19.3%	17.4%	1.8%	1.4%	5.37	4.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	19.3%	17.4%	1.8%	1.4%	5.37	4.43	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	26.1%	14.8%	11.3%	1.2%	5.37	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	28.6%	10.5%	18.0%	2.1%	3.69	3.18	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	6.5%	46.2%	-39.7%	2.4%	10.61	9.72	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	6.5%	46.2%	-39.7%	2.4%	10.61	9.72	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	8.0%	42.0%	-34.0%	2.0%	10.61	10.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	21	21	120	507	100	91	14	100%	5.7	19.8%	17.9%	1.9%	2.8%	5.64	5.64	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	120	507	103	85	14	100%	6.0	20.4%	16.9%	3.5%	2.9%	5.48	5.46	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	118	499	102	81	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	16.2%	4.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.41	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	115	484	99	77	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.0%	4.5%	3.0%	5.40	5.43	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	110	462	94	74	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.2%	5.47	5.53	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	103	434	87	71	15	100%	6.1	19.9%	16.3%	3.6%	3.4%	5.62	5.71	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	53	224	46	38	6	100%	5.9	20.4%	16.9%	3.5%	2.9%	5.48	5.46	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	75	317	65	51	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	16.2%	4.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.41	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	87	367	75	59	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	16.0%	4.5%	3.0%	5.40	5.43	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	89	376	76	60	12	100%	5.9	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.2%	5.47	5.53	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	88	372	74	61	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	16.3%	3.6%	3.4%	5.62	5.71	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	392	1655	336	268	51	100%	6.0	20.3%	16.2%	4.1%	3.1%	5.48	5.14	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	137	26	100%	6.0	20.3%	16.2%	4.1%	3.1%	5.48	5.14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		47	34	166	734	147	120	16	72%	3.5	20.0%	16.3%	3.7%	2.1%	4.65	4.65	-3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	883	177	144	19	72%	3.5	20.0%	16.3%	3.7%	2.1%	4.65	4.65	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alonzo Tredwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	19.8%	17.9%	2.8%	—	5.43	20.5%	4.1%	353	-0.21	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	79
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	77
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	77
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	76
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	74
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	73
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	73
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	73
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	72
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	71
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	71
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	71
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	71
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	71
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	70
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	70
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	114	20.2%	16.6%	1.17	5.50
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*