Bubba Chandler

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.6 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	26	23	120	3.08	2.63	30.9%	8.6%	—	K 25.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.47
2025	22	MIX2 levels	31	28	131	4.04	3.08	26.9%	10.1%	2.9	K 23.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.38
2026	23	MLBPIT	31	30	154	4.50	4.09	20.8%	11.7%	1.5
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	27	27	151	4.22	4.16	24.5%	10.7%	1.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBPIT	28	28	162	4.00	3.92	25.2%	10.1%	1.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPIT	28	28	169	3.93	3.88	25.5%	10.0%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.221First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$7M2031Arb-2$11M2032Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs44

K%41

Whiff%28

CompsBrandon Sproat (age 23) · Luke Weaver (age 24) · Dom Hamel (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.22

FIP4.16

K%24.5%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP151

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CH+1.4 (14%)

FB (57%)

SI (8%)

CU (5%)

SL (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.221 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+1.7	$11M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+1.6	$9M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$13M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$63M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	24.7%	19.5%	5.2%	2.0%	2.61	4.60	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	34.7%	16.2%	18.5%	1.7%	2.61	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	3.1%	4.54	3.93	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	30.9%	8.6%	22.3%	1.9%	3.08	2.63	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.9%	9.1%	14.7%	2.1%	4.04	3.38	+2.4
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.9%	9.1%	14.7%	2.1%	4.04	3.38	+2.4
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	1.8%	4.04	3.08	+2.9
2026	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+1.4
2026	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+1.4
2026	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.2%	4.50	4.09	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	34	185	798	171	83	17	89%	4.9	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	2.1%	4.42	3.79	+2.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	27	27	151	638	156	68	16	100%	5.6	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	2.5%	4.22	4.16	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	171	721	181	73	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.5%	4.10	4.02	+1.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	178	752	192	75	19	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.5%	4.03	3.98	+2.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	175	740	189	75	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.03	4.02	+1.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	175	740	188	76	20	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	2.7%	4.08	4.11	+1.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	167	707	175	74	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.27	+1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	157	665	160	72	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.48	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	147	620	145	69	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.71	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	136	573	129	66	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.5%	4.81	4.96	-0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	125	526	114	63	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.07	5.24	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	162	684	172	69	16	100%	5.8	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.3%	4.00	3.92	+1.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	169	714	182	72	17	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.3%	3.93	3.88	+1.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	167	705	180	71	17	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.4%	3.92	3.91	+1.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	167	705	179	72	17	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	2.5%	3.97	4.00	+1.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	159	671	167	70	18	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.6%	4.07	4.15	+1.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	150	633	153	68	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.36	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	139	587	137	65	18	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.58	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	129	545	123	63	18	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.82	-0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	118	498	108	60	17	100%	5.9	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.5%	4.91	5.08	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		265	261	1545	6540	1571	694	172	98%	5.8	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	2.6%	4.23	3.86	+19.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	203	90	22	98%	5.8	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	2.6%	4.23	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		127	117	557	2376	536	267	60	92%	4.4	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.01	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	853	192	96	22	92%	4.4	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.01	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bubba Chandler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	24.5%	10.7%	2.5%	—	4.01	25.4%	15.3%	524	-0.15	—	—	—
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	73
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,043	72
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	70
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.51	19.4%	10.1%	355	+0.55	3.39	579	70
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	68
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.98	1,071	68
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	957	68
Gavin Williams R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	25.8%	10.0%	2.5%	.252	3.77	28.2%	18.3%	440	+0.22	3.39	697	68
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	68
Mason Barnett R 2024 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	23.1%	9.5%	2.9%	.316	4.91	18.5%	7.3%	258	+0.94	3.45	505	67
Yordano Ventura R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	24	SP	3.44	22.5%	8.2%	2.2%	.300	4.48	17.6%	8.2%	186	+1.04	3.44	548	67
Taylor Clarke R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	19.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.274	4.71	18.0%	9.7%	317	+0.47	3.36	973	67
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	67
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	67
Daniel Cabrera R 2005 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	21.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.283	4.53	17.4%	5.3%	532	+0.70	3.83	967	66
Hayden Birdsong R 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	26.7%	12.6%	3.4%	.259	5.27	22.0%	9.0%	105	+0.95	3.29	326	66
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	66
AJ Blubaugh R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SP	4.19	20.8%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	4.34	22.1%	11.3%	227	+0.15	1.59	465	66
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	66
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	147	24.1%	10.6%	1.09	4.32
Jim Bibby ('72-'84, 16 WAR*)	8.6	157	21.9%*	9.8%*	1.05*	4.32*
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34
Frank Allen ('12-'17, 9 WAR*)	4.9	162	22.0%*	10.2%*	1.25*	4.24*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Erik Bedard ('14)	6.5	130	22.2%	9.5%	0.90	3.99
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24