Niko Mazza — OGILVIE

Niko Mazza P Eugene Emeralds

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 193 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%16.5%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	17.0%	15.7%	1.3%	0.7%	2.22	4.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	17.0%	15.7%	1.3%	0.7%	2.22	4.05	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	23.0%	13.3%	9.7%	0.8%	2.22	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	19	104	451	119	57	10	73%	4.0	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.63	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	19	104	451	119	57	10	73%	4.0	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	SF	24	17	95	415	110	55	8	71%	4.0	26.5%	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2026	24	AA RAW	SF	2	2	9	36	9	2	2	100%	4.5	25.0%	5.6%	19.4%	5.6%	7.00	4.74	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	24	4	4	1	100%	5.7	16.5%	17.4%	-0.9%	2.6%	5.71	5.71	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	110	475	123	61	11	—	—	25.9%	12.9%	13.0%	2.2%	4.47	4.69	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	104	437	77	67	11	100%	5.8	17.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.6%	5.44	5.36	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	437	79	64	12	100%	6.1	18.1%	14.6%	3.5%	2.6%	5.30	5.25	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	102	430	79	62	12	100%	6.0	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.24	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	99	417	76	60	12	100%	6.2	18.3%	14.3%	3.9%	2.8%	5.27	5.30	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	94	399	72	58	12	100%	5.9	18.0%	14.6%	3.5%	3.0%	5.37	5.43	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	89	375	66	56	12	100%	5.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.8%	3.2%	5.51	5.61	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	45	190	33	29	5	100%	5.6	17.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.6%	5.44	5.36	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	69	291	53	43	8	100%	5.8	18.1%	14.6%	3.5%	2.6%	5.30	5.25	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	79	334	61	48	9	100%	6.1	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.24	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	64	50	10	100%	5.9	18.3%	14.3%	3.9%	2.8%	5.27	5.30	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	63	51	10	100%	5.9	18.0%	14.6%	3.5%	3.0%	5.37	5.43	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	80	338	60	50	11	100%	6.2	17.7%	14.9%	2.8%	3.2%	5.51	5.61	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	438	1847	333	270	52	100%	6.0	18.0%	14.6%	3.4%	2.8%	5.35	4.99	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	123	24	100%	6.0	18.0%	14.6%	3.4%	2.8%	5.35	4.99	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		47	40	198	843	159	130	14	85%	4.2	18.8%	15.4%	3.4%	1.6%	3.37	4.36	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	853	161	132	14	85%	4.2	18.8%	15.4%	3.4%	1.6%	3.37	4.36	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Niko Mazza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	16.5%	17.4%	2.6%	—	5.28	18.0%	3.2%	309	-0.43	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	83
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	83
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	81
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	79
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	79
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	77
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	77
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	77
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	77
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	76
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.40	23.1%	6.0%	150	-0.47	4.00	311	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	94	17.8%	14.9%	1.08	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32