Niko Mazza
P
Eugene Emeralds
Age 24
RHP
5'10" / 193 lbs
A+
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.58
FIP5.58
K%16.5%
BB%16.5%
K-BB%0.0%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 21 | 93 | 392 | 90 | 52 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.22 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 21 | 93 | 392 | 90 | 52 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.0% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 0.8% | 2.22 | 3.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 17 | 11 | 72 | 297 | 85 | 41 | 5 | 65% | 4.2 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 2.50 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 67 | 284 | 47 | 47 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 5.58 | 5.58 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 139 | 581 | 132 | 88 | 12 | — | — | 22.7% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 3.99 | 4.97 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 5.58 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.34 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 52 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 48 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.34 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 43 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 42 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 236 | 995 | 182 | 142 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.86 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 121 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 32 | 165 | 689 | 132 | 109 | 9 | 84% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 2.34 | 4.16 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 39 | 200 | 833 | 160 | 131 | 10 | 84% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 2.34 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Niko Mazza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 2.6% | — | 5.21 | 18.2% | 3.8% | 203 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 84 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 83 |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 83 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 83 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 82 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 81 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 81 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 80 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 80 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 79 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | .227 | 4.60 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -0.73 | 4.60 | 529 | 79 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 79 |
| Sam Wolff R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 78 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 77 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 77 |
| Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 77 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 77 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.44 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.3% | .248 | 5.06 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 84 | +0.62 | 4.44 | 326 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 66 | 18.0% | 14.7% | 1.04 | 5.30 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |