Niko Mazza — OGILVIE

Niko Mazza P Eugene Emeralds

+0.3 WAR

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 193 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%9.7%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2028

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	23	A	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	17.0%	15.7%	0.7%	2.22	4.03	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	Eugene Emeralds	2	2	5	28	8	7	1	—	—	—	11.81	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	SF	17	17	93	394	84	45	10	21.2%	11.5%	2.6%	4.56	4.56	+0.7
2026 Total	24	MLB	SF	—	—	99	422	92	52	11	21.7%	12.4%	2.6%	4.95	4.31	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	SF	19	19	106	450	97	47	12	21.6%	10.5%	2.6%	4.46	4.42	+1.1
2028	26	MLB	SF	21	21	114	479	105	49	13	21.9%	10.3%	2.6%	4.41	4.38	+1.2
2029	27	MLB	SF	21	21	117	492	108	50	13	21.9%	10.2%	2.7%	4.39	4.38	+1.2
2030	28	MLB	SF	21	21	117	494	108	50	13	21.9%	10.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.41	+1.2
2031	29	MLB	SF	21	21	114	483	105	49	13	21.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.45	+1.1
2032	30	MLB	SF	20	20	111	468	101	48	13	21.5%	10.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.52	+1.0
2033	31	MLB	SF	19	19	107	452	96	47	13	21.3%	10.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	+0.9
2034	32	MLB	SF	19	19	103	434	91	46	13	21.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.68	+0.7
2035	33	MLB	SF	18	18	98	414	86	45	13	20.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.72	4.77	+0.6
2036	34	MLB	SF	17	17	93	394	80	43	12	20.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.88	+0.4
2037	35	MLB	SF	16	16	88	371	74	42	12	20.0%	11.2%	3.3%	4.93	5.01	+0.2
2038	36	MLB	SF	15	15	82	347	68	40	12	19.5%	11.5%	3.4%	5.06	5.14	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			23	23	99	420	75	68	4	17.8%	16.3%	0.9%	2.74	4.15	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—			47	47	200	851	152	138	8	17.8%	16.3%	0.9%	2.74	4.15	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Niko Mazza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.2%	11.5%	2.6%	—	4.39	21.8%	11.5%	337	-0.17	—	—	—
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	93
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	92
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	91
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	89
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	88
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	87
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	87
Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP-	3.75	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	5.04	18.9%	7.8%	312	+1.29	2.95	492	87
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	87
Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	86
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	86
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SP-	5.28	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.42	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.86	3.98	481	86
Casey Anderson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	17.3%	12.4%	1.6%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	185	85
Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	85
Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	3.86	20.2%	11.2%	203	-0.22	3.77	295	85
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	85
Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	85
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	85
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$6M		$42M	+$36M