Aidan Curry

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #628Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+TEX	23	20	94	6.44	5.05	24.4%	10.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.20
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	17	85	3.83	3.45	31.4%	11.9%	—	K 23.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.45
2026	24	MIX3 levels	23	22	104	4.93	3.48	28.8%	12.4%	—	K 23.4% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.34
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	21	21	124	4.84	4.84	24.1%	14.4%	0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTEX	10	10	60	4.89	4.88	24.1%	13.7%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTEX	14	14	85	4.87	4.88	23.9%	13.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Brett Daniels (age 25) · Paxton Schultz (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%24.1%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	1.6%	13.79	5.05	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	1.2%	13.79	3.67	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	21.7%	13.5%	8.1%	3.5%	4.23	4.91	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	32.6%	12.8%	19.8%	2.3%	4.23	3.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	1.5%	2.75	3.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	2.0%	2.75	3.10	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	24.4%	10.2%	14.2%	4.7%	6.44	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	31.4%	11.9%	19.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	28.8%	12.4%	16.4%	2.3%	4.93	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	21	21	124	524	126	75	15	100%	5.9	24.1%	14.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	136	574	138	79	17	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	134	566	135	75	17	100%	6.1	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.76	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	549	130	72	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.82	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	124	524	123	70	17	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.87	4.93	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	117	493	114	67	17	100%	6.1	23.0%	13.6%	9.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.11	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	60	253	61	35	8	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.88	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	85	359	86	48	11	100%	6.1	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.88	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	98	414	98	55	14	100%	6.1	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.95	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	101	426	100	57	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.3%	10.1%	3.4%	5.00	5.06	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	97	57	15	100%	5.9	23.0%	13.6%	9.5%	3.6%	5.16	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	444	1876	442	251	63	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.64	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	113	28	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		112	87	425	1849	403	242	59	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	871	190	114	28	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Curry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	24.1%	14.4%	2.9%	—	4.78	23.9%	10.5%	400	-0.06	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	80
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	80
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	78
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	78
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	78
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	78
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	77
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	77
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	77
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	77
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	127	23.7%	13.6%	1.18	4.83
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44