Pico Kohn

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1203ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	A+NYY	6	5	23	1.99	2.53	33.3%	12.9%	—	K 25.7% · BB 14.8% · FIP 3.55
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.56	4.56	24.9%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	4	4	23	4.56	4.51	25.1%	11.5%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYY	6	6	35	4.51	4.48	25.2%	11.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 24) · Hayden Mullins (age 23) · Evan Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%24.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	33.3%	12.9%	20.4%	1.1%	1.99	2.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	54	228	57	26	7	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.45	4.40	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	52	221	56	25	6	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.37	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	51	214	54	24	6	100%	6.3	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	23	97	24	11	3	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.51	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	35	148	37	17	5	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.48	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	39	165	41	19	5	100%	6.5	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.51	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	97	410	103	46	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.12	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	212	95	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		6	5	23	93	24	14	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	821	211	122	11	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 23 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.55 (+1.04)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.150	14.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pico Kohn (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.39	25.1%	13.8%	157	-0.17	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	88
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	86
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	80
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	76
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	75
Max Fried L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	24	SP-	3.49	24.6%	11.9%	1.7%	.326	3.21	23.9%	17.4%	387	-0.28	2.51	1,448	75
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	74
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	74
Cooper Hjerpe L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	27.5%	14.7%	1.8%	.257	3.67	29.7%	10.7%	46	+0.06	3.61	139	74
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	74
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	73
Wyatt Crowell L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.0%	14.2%	0.7%	.247	4.92	19.7%	0.9%	167	+1.56	3.36	204	72
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	25.1%	11.7%	1.12	4.46
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*