Pico Kohn — OGILVIE

Pico Kohn P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—45

CTRL—55

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYY	6	5	23	93	31	12	1	83%	3.8	33.3%	12.9%	20.4%	1.1%	1.99	2.51	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	6	24	6	2	1	100%	5.6	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	28	117	37	14	2	—	—	31.4%	12.4%	19.0%	1.5%	2.46	3.72	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	63	266	65	26	8	100%	5.7	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	270	66	25	8	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.19	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	270	67	25	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.18	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	63	266	66	25	8	100%	6.3	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	27	114	28	11	4	100%	5.4	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	42	177	44	17	6	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.30	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	53	20	7	100%	6.4	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.29	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	56	21	7	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.33	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	174	734	181	69	23	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	3.2%	4.35	3.94	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	79	26	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	3.2%	4.35	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		6	5	23	93	24	14	1	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	821	211	122	11	83%	3.8	25.7%	14.8%	10.8%	1.3%	1.99	3.55	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pico Kohn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.8%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.21	24.6%	15.1%	191	-0.20	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	88
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	87
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	83
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	82
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	82
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	79
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	78
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	77
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	77
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	24.5%	9.6%	1.15	4.28
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58