Wyatt Crowell

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 169 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	17	17	44	3.09	2.34	31.2%	12.7%	—	K 23.0% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.36
2025	23	MIX2 levels	24	18	98	3.13	3.82	27.0%	16.4%	—	K 21.0% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.84
2026	24	AALAD	20	11	69	5.35	4.42	22.0%	17.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 19.1% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	1	1	1	5.69	5.69	18.9%	18.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBLAD	5	5	28	5.52	5.50	19.7%	17.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	6	6	35	5.44	5.44	19.9%	17.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 25) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Brooks Gosswein (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%18.9%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%-0.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	44	189	59	24	1	100%	2.6	23.0%	14.2%	8.8%	0.7%	3.09	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	44	189	59	24	1	100%	2.6	23.0%	14.2%	8.8%	0.7%	3.09	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	44	189	59	24	1	100%	2.6	31.2%	12.7%	18.5%	0.5%	3.09	2.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	422	114	69	7	75%	4.1	21.0%	18.7%	2.3%	2.1%	3.13	4.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	422	114	69	7	75%	4.1	21.0%	18.7%	2.3%	2.1%	3.13	4.84	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	98	422	114	69	7	75%	4.1	27.0%	16.4%	10.7%	1.7%	3.13	3.82	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	20	11	69	322	71	56	5	55%	3.5	17.9%	19.1%	-1.3%	1.9%	5.35	5.04	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	20	11	69	322	71	56	5	55%	3.5	17.9%	19.1%	-1.3%	1.9%	5.35	5.04	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	20	11	69	322	71	56	5	55%	3.5	22.0%	17.4%	4.7%	1.6%	5.35	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.9%	18.9%	-0.1%	2.6%	5.69	5.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	65	273	54	49	7	100%	5.9	19.7%	17.8%	1.9%	2.6%	5.52	5.50	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	56	235	47	40	6	100%	6.2	19.9%	17.1%	2.8%	2.7%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	51	217	43	36	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	16.8%	3.1%	2.8%	5.43	5.47	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	48	201	40	34	6	100%	6.0	19.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.0%	5.50	5.57	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	46	194	41	32	6	100%	5.7	21.3%	16.3%	5.1%	3.2%	5.48	5.47	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	28	118	23	21	3	100%	5.6	19.7%	17.8%	1.9%	2.6%	5.52	5.50	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	35	148	29	25	4	100%	5.8	19.9%	17.1%	2.8%	2.7%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	39	165	33	28	5	100%	6.5	19.9%	16.8%	3.1%	2.8%	5.43	5.47	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	39	165	32	28	5	100%	6.5	19.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.0%	5.50	5.57	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	39	165	35	27	5	100%	6.5	21.3%	16.3%	5.1%	3.2%	5.48	5.47	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	763	154	129	22	100%	6.0	20.1%	16.9%	3.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.11	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	143	24	100%	6.0	20.1%	16.9%	3.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.11	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		61	46	210	933	190	167	16	75%	3.4	20.3%	17.9%	2.4%	1.7%	3.85	4.61	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	44	200	887	180	159	15	75%	3.4	20.3%	17.9%	2.4%	1.7%	3.85	4.61	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 69 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.04 (+0.74)K% 22.0% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.05%	—	×0.810	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.100	19.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 78 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.01 (+1.11)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.68%	—	×0.770	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.96%	—	×1.150	19.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.992	×1.250	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 20 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.17 (+0.73)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.42%	—	×0.810	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.100	15.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.957	×1.200	1.46%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 20 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.56 (+0.83)K% 26.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.770	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.036	×1.250	1.34%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 17 IPFIP 2.02 → 3.13 (+1.11)K% 35.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.740	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×1.180	17.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.072	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 6 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.57 (+1.48)K% 36.0% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.680	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.250	20.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wyatt Crowell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	5.47	19.8%	2.6%	172	-0.22	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	82
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	73
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.58	20.9%	12.1%	174	-1.80	2.32	362	72
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	72
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	71
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	70
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	69
Tim Berry L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SP-	5.66	11.3%	13.5%	3.3%	.380	4.04	20.0%	1.8%	44	-1.62	4.04	196	69
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	68
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	68
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	68
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	68
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	67
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	66
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	66
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	65
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	65
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	56	19.8%	17.4%	1.07	5.52
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*