Wyatt Crowell
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'0" / 169 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%8.4%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 17 | 17 | 44 | 189 | 59 | 24 | 1 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 0.7% | 3.09 | 3.37 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 24 | 18 | 98 | 422 | 114 | 69 | 7 | 21.0% | 18.7% | 2.1% | 3.13 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 2 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 73 | 45 | 9 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 86 | 361 | 83 | 48 | 9 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 75 | 41 | 9 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 76 | 40 | 9 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 76 | 39 | 9 | 23.0% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 75 | 39 | 9 | 23.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 72 | 38 | 9 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 70 | 37 | 9 | 22.6% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 66 | 36 | 9 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 63 | 35 | 9 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 34 | 8 | 21.8% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 56 | 33 | 8 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 51 | 32 | 8 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 47 | 30 | 8 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 36 | 149 | 644 | 142 | 109 | 10 | 22.1% | 16.9% | 1.6% | 2.95 | 4.24 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 48 | 200 | 862 | 190 | 146 | 13 | 22.1% | 16.9% | 1.6% | 2.95 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wyatt Crowell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.56 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 236 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 98 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 88 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 88 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.54 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .329 | 5.77 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.23 | 4.54 | 107 | 87 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.46 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -0.97 | 3.11 | 151 | 87 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 86 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 86 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.34 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 346 | 85 |
| Larson Kindreich L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.27 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 2.9% | .269 | 4.70 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 79 | -0.57 | 4.16 | 214 | 85 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 84 |
| Kumar Nambiar L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 18.5% | 14.3% | 2.5% | .277 | 5.00 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 60 | +0.26 | 3.10 | 221 | 83 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.06 | 2.63 | 160 | 83 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 83 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .338 | 4.79 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | +0.20 | 4.22 | 156 | 83 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.18 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 162 | 82 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.65 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .267 | 4.55 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.10 | 4.22 | 128 | 82 |
| Brian Flynn L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||