Isaac Ayon
P
Great Lakes Loons
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
K%20.3%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 41 | 172 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 88% | 2.4 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 41 | 172 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 88% | 2.4 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 17 | 7 | 58 | 237 | 67 | 16 | 9 | 41% | 3.4 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 4.8% | 3.57 | 4.92 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 77 | 46 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 148 | 617 | 144 | 62 | 20 | — | — | 23.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 99 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 112 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 111 | 54 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 107 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 110 | 467 | 101 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 93 | 50 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 85 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 74 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.57 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 85 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 89 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 89 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 83 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 78 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 99 | 596 | 2517 | 543 | 280 | 78 | 99% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 94 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 22 | 99 | 409 | 79 | 41 | 15 | 65% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 3.74 | 4.79 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 45 | 200 | 829 | 161 | 82 | 31 | 65% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 3.74 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaac Ayon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.64 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 350 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 82 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 82 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 81 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 81 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 80 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 80 |
| Casey Anderson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .328 | 5.96 | 19.3% | 4.0% | 45 | +1.90 | 4.06 | 229 | 80 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 79 |
| Thomas Ponticelli R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.73 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.29 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 163 | +0.56 | 2.59 | 367 | 79 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 79 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 78 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 78 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 78 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 78 |
| Phil Klein R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 78 |
| Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.99 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 186 | -0.54 | 3.33 | 475 | 77 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 108 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 1.21 | 4.78 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |