Isaac Ayon — OGILVIE

Isaac Ayon P Great Lakes Loons

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%20.3%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	16.7%	12.8%	3.9%	2.7%	3.98	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	16.7%	12.8%	3.9%	2.7%	3.98	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	2.3%	3.98	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	12	87	371	93	26	14	50%	3.6	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	4.7%	4.64	5.12	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	12	87	371	93	26	14	50%	3.6	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	4.7%	4.64	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	LAD	7	5	27	107	35	5	2	71%	3.9	32.7%	4.7%	28.0%	1.9%	2.96	1.96	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAD	17	7	60	264	58	21	12	41%	3.5	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	4.5%	5.40	4.75	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	8	34	7	5	1	100%	8.2	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	2.9%	5.04	5.04	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	96	405	100	31	15	—	—	24.7%	7.5%	17.1%	3.7%	4.67	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	109	461	99	55	14	100%	5.7	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	2.9%	4.86	4.80	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	121	511	112	59	15	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.75	4.71	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	119	504	111	58	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	116	489	107	56	15	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.1%	4.76	4.79	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	110	467	101	55	15	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	104	439	93	53	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	3.4%	5.01	5.10	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	42	24	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	3.1%	4.93	4.87	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	80	338	74	39	10	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.78	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	92	388	85	45	12	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	97	410	89	47	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.86	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	97	410	89	48	14	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	83	47	14	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	3.6%	5.09	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	465	251	70	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.7%	10.0%	3.3%	4.90	4.54	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	183	99	28	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.7%	10.0%	3.3%	4.90	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		41	27	128	543	99	52	22	66%	3.1	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	4.1%	4.43	5.03	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	42	200	848	155	81	35	66%	3.1	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	4.1%	4.43	5.03	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Ayon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	20.3%	13.1%	2.9%	—	4.74	21.8%	10.1%	350	-0.30	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	88
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	84
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	82
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	82
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	80
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	21.5%	11.9%	1.19	4.85
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48