Isaac Ayon

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1143ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	17	15	41	3.98	3.69	23.8%	10.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.82
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	12	87	4.64	3.95	25.1%	7.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	—	—	0	4.93	4.93	19.8%	9.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAD	6	6	33	4.91	4.88	20.9%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	7	7	44	4.87	4.88	21.0%	9.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.6M2032Arb-2$1M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Andrew Politi (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	16.7%	12.8%	3.9%	2.7%	3.98	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	16.7%	12.8%	3.9%	2.7%	3.98	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	41	172	41	18	4	88%	2.4	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	2.3%	3.98	3.69	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	87	371	93	26	14	50%	3.6	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	4.7%	4.64	5.12	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	87	371	93	26	14	50%	3.6	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	4.7%	4.64	5.12	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	12	87	371	93	26	14	50%	3.6	25.1%	7.0%	18.1%	3.8%	4.64	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.4%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	326	68	32	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.83	4.80	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	299	63	29	10	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.4%	4.79	4.80	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	279	58	27	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.85	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	61	258	53	25	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.6%	4.90	4.97	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	61	256	57	24	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.8%	4.88	4.87	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	33	139	29	14	5	100%	5.5	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.91	4.88	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	44	186	39	18	7	100%	6.3	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.5%	4.87	4.88	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	44	21	8	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.6%	4.89	4.93	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	44	21	8	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.8%	4.98	5.05	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	49	21	9	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	4.0%	4.97	4.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	229	967	205	94	36	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.7%	4.93	4.57	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	82	31	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.7%	4.93	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		41	27	128	543	99	52	22	66%	3.1	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	4.1%	4.43	5.03	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	42	200	848	155	81	35	66%	3.1	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	4.1%	4.43	5.03	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 60 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.95 (+1.20)K% 22.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.97%	—	×0.770	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.150	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 27 IPFIP 1.96 → 3.09 (+1.13)K% 32.7% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.71%	—	×0.740	24.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.67%	—	×1.180	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 27 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.66 (+1.31)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.680	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.250	13.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.187	×1.400	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 14 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.14 (+0.78)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.740	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.180	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.055	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Ayon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.82	20.9%	11.2%	214	-0.11	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	80
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	79
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	79
Cole Sands R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP-	4.38	21.3%	8.9%	3.5%	.358	3.04	25.4%	19.1%	196	-1.34	2.28	474	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	78
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	78
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	20.9%	9.7%	1.35	4.86
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*