Tavian Josenberger

CF Chesapeake Baysox
Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/A+2 orgs372.235/.346/.39995054—.185/.261/.315
202523AA/A+2 orgs274.190/.336/.31052253—.174/.283/.261
202624AAA/AABAL444.222/.346/.360104061—.188/.280/.296
2027PROJMLE25MLBBAL4.195/.285/.3060067-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB26MLBBAL79.198/.288/.3132469-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Chase%97
Speed92
BB%86
Whiff%77
Z-Con%67
K%54
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsMike Antico (age 25) · Michael Siani (age 25) · Jonny Butler (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .285 / .306
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%10
BABIP262
ISO108
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +1.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 10278 20210 19220 72 256398308706 51339 2219 322 63 — — — — — —
202422 AABowie Baysox — 2320 6000 240 50 300364300664 375 179 297 74 — — — — — —
202422 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 349291 671459 49572 456 230345405751 175257 1614 332 53 — — — — — —
202523 AAChesapeake Baysox — 257203 39625 43642 217 192337315653 123250 2517 297 55 — — — — — —
202523 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 1713 2100 360 10 154312231543 77250 3518 252 17 — — — — — —
202624 AAANorfolk Tides — 2219 5000 350 21 263364263627 357 2314 301 60 — — — — — —
202624 AAChesapeake Baysox — 422350 7715310 631014 385 220345366711 146278 2415 323 61 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 10286 19210 12300 72 221316267584 47290 2912 261 63 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 2321 6000 150 50 286318286604 371 224 277 74 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 349309 551148 31752 456 178257317574 139197 219 246 53 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 257216 38623 31752 217 176285264549 88236 2912 250 55 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 1714 2100 280 10 143250214464 71205 4712 194 17 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 2220 5000 260 21 250318250568 343 279 257 60 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 422369 681238 441234 385 184278298576 114247 2910 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 10286 19210 12300 72 221316267584 47322 2912 261 63 — — — — — —
202321 A RAWDelmarva Shorebirds — 10278 20210 19220 72 256398308706 51339 2219 322 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 372330 611148 32802 506 185261315576 130218 229 248 54 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAW2 teams — 372311 731459 51612 506 235346399745 164264 1614 329 54 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 274230 39623 33832 227 170279252531 83245 3012 247 53 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAW2 teams — 274216 41725 46702 227 190336310646 120250 2617 294 53 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 444389 731238 461294 406 188280296576 108256 2910 258 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAW2 teams — 444369 8215310 661064 406 222346360707 138282 2415 322 61 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 10289 19210 12300 72 213316258575 45290 2912 261 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 372335 611148 32802 506 182261310571 128208 229 248 54 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 274237 39623 33832 227 165279245524 80234 3012 247 53 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 444391 731238 461294 406 187280294574 107252 2910 258 61 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 372335 611148 32802 506 182261310571 128208 229 248 54 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 274237 39623 33832 227 165279245524 80234 3012 247 53 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 444391 731238 461294 406 187280294574 107252 2910 258 61 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEBAL 2% 380334 641136 401083 204 192283299582 107259 2811 267 67 -15 +2 +0 +1 +8 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXBAL 2% 44 0000 010 00 195285306591 111262 250 271 67 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEBAL 31% 254224 45825 26712 122 195285306591 111260 2810 271 69 -9 +2 +0 +1 +6 -0.1
202826 MLB CTXBAL 31% 7970 14212 8221 41 198288313601 115264 2810 274 69 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 7970 14212 8221 41 200291343634 143261 2810 274 60 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 11416816 661818 338 198289337626 139259 2810 274 60 -24 +3 +0 +2 +14 -0.4
Career— MLE — 16561444 272451328 17145311 14225 188279296575 107251 2710 257 60 -18 +3 +0 +2 +10 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650567 10718511 671784 5610 189279296575 108251 2710 257 60 -25 +4 +0 +2 +14 -0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 422 PAwOBA .316 → .258 (−59)K% 23.9% → 29.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.93%÷1.000×1.220——29.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.93%÷1.000×0.700—×0.99810.43%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.850—×0.9980.80%
Singles /BIP19.68%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×0.99818.10%
Doubles /BIP6.02%÷1.000×0.860×0.950×0.9984.91%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷1.000×0.950×0.950×0.9981.09%
Home runs /BIP4.02%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9983.13%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .316 → .258; ISO .146 → .118; BABIP .278 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 22 PAwOBA .294 → .257 (−37)K% 22.7% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.73%÷1.000×1.200——27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.64%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0339.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP35.71%÷1.000×0.930—×1.03334.31%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0330.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .294 → .257; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .357 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 257 PAwOBA .293 → .250 (−43)K% 24.9% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.90%÷1.044×1.220——29.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.73%÷0.987×0.700—×1.01212.01%
HBP% /PA0.78%—×0.850—×1.0120.67%
Singles /BIP18.71%÷0.957×0.970×0.950×1.01218.23%
Doubles /BIP4.32%÷0.970×0.860×0.950×1.0123.68%
Triples /BIP1.44%÷0.900×0.950×0.950×1.0121.46%
Home runs /BIP3.60%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0122.27%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .293 → .250; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .250 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 17 PAwOBA .262 → .194 (−68)K% 35.3% → 45.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.29%÷1.013×1.310——45.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.65%÷0.944×0.600—×0.98811.08%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷0.990×0.870—×0.98812.40%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷1.010×0.780—×0.98810.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.091×0.850—×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.229×0.880—×0.9880.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .262 → .194; ISO .077 → .062; BABIP .250 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 349 PAwOBA .324 → .246 (−79)K% 16.3% → 21.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.33%÷0.993×1.310——21.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.04%÷0.947×0.600—×0.9988.87%
HBP% /PA0.57%—×0.770—×0.9980.44%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.048×0.870×0.951×0.99813.13%
Doubles /BIP5.98%÷0.980×0.780×0.951×0.9984.52%
Triples /BIP2.14%÷1.150×0.850×0.951×0.9981.50%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.026×0.880—×0.9983.29%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .324 → .246; ISO .175 → .144; BABIP .257 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 23 PAwOBA .290 → .277 (−13)K% 17.4% → 21.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.39%÷0.970×1.220——21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.028×0.700—×1.0276.08%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP37.50%÷1.008×0.970—×1.02737.07%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.062×0.860—×1.0270.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.135×0.950—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.249×0.780—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .290 → .277; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .375 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 102 PAwOBA .325 → .261 (−63)K% 21.6% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.57%÷1.008×1.360——29.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.63%÷1.065×0.690——12.07%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP30.36%÷1.020×0.920×0.960—26.26%
Doubles /BIP3.57%÷1.101×0.830×0.960—2.58%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷0.940×0.910×0.960—1.66%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.020×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .325 → .261; ISO .051 → .045; BABIP .339 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).