Tekoah Roby

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTFG #294Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP49ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	AASTL	14	14	58	4.63	2.84	28.9%	6.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.53
2024	22	MIX2 levels	10	10	38	6.57	5.63	22.2%	8.5%	—	K 17.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.81
2025	23	MIX2 levels	16	16	78	3.10	2.93	27.5%	6.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.58
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	21	21	125	4.08	4.08	23.4%	6.9%	1.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSTL	11	11	66	3.94	3.91	24.0%	7.0%	0.7
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSTL	15	15	89	3.96	3.97	23.8%	7.1%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$5M2032Ext$6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control55Command47FB velo53

CompsShumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Will Warren (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%23.4%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	1.5%	2.45	2.63	—
2021	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	38.9%	7.8%	31.1%	1.1%	2.45	1.46	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	4.8%	4.64	5.02	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	28.4%	7.9%	20.5%	4.3%	4.64	4.06	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.63	3.53	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	28.9%	6.3%	22.6%	2.5%	4.63	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	22.2%	8.5%	13.6%	5.7%	6.57	5.63	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.0%	3.10	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.0%	3.10	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	2.5%	3.10	2.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	21	21	125	528	124	37	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	3.1%	4.08	4.08	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	137	577	138	40	18	100%	5.9	24.0%	7.0%	17.0%	3.1%	4.06	4.03	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	135	568	135	40	18	100%	6.1	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	3.1%	4.08	4.09	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	131	551	130	40	18	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	3.2%	4.14	4.18	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	125	527	123	40	18	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.24	4.31	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	117	495	114	39	18	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.49	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	109	461	104	38	17	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.8%	4.57	4.69	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	427	94	37	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	4.0%	4.78	4.92	-0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	93	392	85	35	17	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.3%	5.01	5.17	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	67	19	8	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.0%	17.0%	2.9%	3.94	3.91	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	90	27	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	2.9%	3.96	3.97	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	101	426	101	31	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	3.0%	4.02	4.06	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	103	435	101	33	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.11	4.18	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	102	431	99	34	14	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.25	4.35	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	98	414	93	34	15	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.5%	4.42	4.54	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	92	388	86	33	15	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	3.8%	4.62	4.76	-0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	79	33	15	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.0%	4.84	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	736	3107	714	243	103	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	3.3%	4.28	3.97	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	66	28	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	3.3%	4.28	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		68	67	302	1265	281	99	48	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	839	187	66	32	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tekoah Roby (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	23.4%	6.9%	3.1%	—	4.10	23.8%	16.7%	402	+0.02	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	85
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	84
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	83
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	83
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	83
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	82
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	81
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	80
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	80
Kade McClure R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	21.0%	8.4%	3.7%	.329	4.38	19.3%	11.5%	110	-0.05	3.57	388	78
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	77
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	77
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	77
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	119	23.1%	7.6%	1.34	4.33
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Jack Scott ('16-'29, 13 WAR*)	9.1	165	22.5%*	7.7%*	1.37*	4.46*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*