Lebarron Johnson Jr.

Lebarron Johnson Jr. P Spokane Indians

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%17.0%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-1.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	17.6%	17.1%	0.5%	1.9%	4.12	4.81	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	17.6%	17.1%	0.5%	1.9%	4.12	4.81	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.12	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	4.7%	6.65	5.78	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	4.7%	6.65	5.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	COL	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.8%	6.65	4.71	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	6	26	4	5	1	100%	6.1	17.0%	18.6%	-1.6%	2.8%	5.95	5.95	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	71	319	60	32	12	—	—	18.9%	10.0%	9.0%	3.7%	6.59	5.79	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	303	55	49	9	100%	6.0	18.1%	16.3%	1.8%	2.8%	5.66	5.57	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	303	57	48	9	100%	6.0	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	2.8%	5.50	5.45	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	298	56	46	9	100%	5.9	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	289	55	45	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.49	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	276	52	43	9	100%	5.9	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	3.2%	5.56	5.62	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	260	48	42	9	100%	6.2	18.3%	16.0%	2.3%	3.4%	5.70	5.80	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	31	131	24	21	4	100%	6.2	18.1%	16.3%	1.8%	2.8%	5.66	5.57	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	38	32	6	100%	6.0	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	2.8%	5.50	5.45	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	55	232	44	36	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	46	38	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.49	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	45	38	8	100%	5.7	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	3.2%	5.56	5.62	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	55	232	43	37	8	100%	6.1	18.3%	16.0%	2.3%	3.4%	5.70	5.80	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	303	1280	239	201	39	100%	5.9	18.6%	15.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.55	5.19	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	133	26	100%	6.0	18.6%	15.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.55	5.19	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		33	29	144	640	104	90	20	88%	4.4	16.3%	14.1%	2.1%	3.2%	5.26	5.25	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	891	145	126	28	88%	4.4	16.3%	14.1%	2.1%	3.2%	5.26	5.25	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lebarron Johnson Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	17.0%	18.6%	2.8%	—	5.49	18.6%	2.7%	214	-0.46	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	83
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	81
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	80
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	80
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	77
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	76
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.40	23.1%	6.0%	150	-0.47	4.00	311	75
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	75
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	74
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	74
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	68	18.4%	16.2%	1.15	5.61
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91