Lebarron Johnson Jr.
P
Fresno Grizzlies
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%9.0%
IP79
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 16 | 16 | 79 | 347 | 81 | 51 | 5 | 17.6% | 17.1% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 67 | 48 | 9 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 70 | 45 | 10 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.95 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 71 | 44 | 10 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 71 | 43 | 10 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.87 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 70 | 42 | 10 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 68 | 41 | 9 | 21.2% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 65 | 40 | 9 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.99 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 62 | 39 | 9 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 59 | 38 | 9 | 20.5% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 56 | 37 | 9 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 19.9% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 5.29 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 48 | 34 | 9 | 19.5% | 13.8% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 44 | 32 | 8 | 19.0% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 79 | 347 | 61 | 59 | 6 | 17.6% | 17.1% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.80 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 882 | 155 | 150 | 15 | 17.6% | 17.1% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lebarron Johnson Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.90 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 238 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.14 | 4.44 | 100 | 91 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.96 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 143 | -0.28 | 3.84 | 206 | 91 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 90 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .283 | 4.53 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 111 | -0.03 | 3.33 | 223 | 90 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 90 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 90 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.56 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 3.7% | .295 | 5.02 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.54 | 3.62 | 109 | 90 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.15 | 172 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 89 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 89 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 89 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.48 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.31 | 107 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 87 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 87 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.57 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .250 | 3.24 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 44 | -1.33 | 3.24 | 201 | 86 |
| Jairo Díaz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.54 | 18.8% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.31 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 18 | -1.23 | 2.97 | 190 | 86 |
| Josh Graham R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.82 | 20.4% | 15.1% | 2.8% | .327 | 4.41 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 70 | -0.41 | 2.15 | 254 | 86 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 124 | 86 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.46 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.99 | 14.5% | -0.5% | 70 | +0.53 | 4.46 | 213 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.