Lebarron Johnson Jr.
P
Spokane Indians
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 132
ERA5.87
FIP5.87
K%17.0%
BB%17.9%
K-BB%-0.9%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 79 | 347 | 81 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 17.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 79 | 347 | 81 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 4.12 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 11 | 9 | 50 | 213 | 43 | 17 | 10 | 82% | 4.6 | 15.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.65 | 6.17 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 48 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.0% | 17.9% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.87 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.0% | 17.9% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.87 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 118 | 497 | 91 | 68 | 18 | — | — | 18.4% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 6.00 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.0% | 17.9% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.49 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 45 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.1% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.38 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.40 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 49 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.50 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 29 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.38 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 44 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.40 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.50 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 236 | 995 | 186 | 151 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.08 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 128 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.08 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 27 | 25 | 129 | 560 | 94 | 79 | 19 | 93% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 868 | 146 | 122 | 30 | 93% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lebarron Johnson Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.87 | 17.0% | 17.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.43 | 18.6% | 3.2% | 203 | -0.44 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 85 |
| Sam Wolff R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 83 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 81 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 77 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 76 |
| Reynardo Cruz R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.01 | 17.8% | 18.1% | 3.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 216 | 76 |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 76 |
| Osman Gutierrez R 2024 · 6.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.14 | 13.9% | 16.2% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 189 | 75 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2028 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 75 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 75 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 75 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | .227 | 4.60 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -0.73 | 4.60 | 529 | 75 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 74 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 73 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 73 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.22 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 5.0% | .306 | 5.85 | 15.7% | 6.6% | 207 | -0.37 | 5.40 | 322 | 73 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.86 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | .252 | 4.50 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 150 | -0.36 | 4.20 | 311 | 73 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.94 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .280 | 5.59 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 79 | +0.65 | 3.71 | 370 | 73 |
| Matthew Thompson R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.61 | 17.7% | 16.9% | 3.4% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 411 | 72 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 66 | 18.4% | 15.7% | 1.13 | 5.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |