Cristian Hernández

SS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#778ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+/ACHC	513	.261/.375/.381	5	44	74	—	.219/.303/.313
2025	21	A+CHC	507	.252/.331/.365	7	52	60	—	.216/.275/.302
2026	22	AAMIA	488	.253/.338/.412	13	35	74	—	.220/.282/.345
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBMIA	4	.205/.269/.306	0	0	68	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	24	MLBMIA	107	.210/.275/.322	2	3	74	0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB	25	MLBMIA	176	.213/.279/.332	4	4	79	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO55

BB%54

wRC+53

wOBA52

Speed50

K%47

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 7.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsRyan Bliss (age 23) · Luke Williams (age 24) · Felix Valerio (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .269 / .306

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP269

ISO105

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	191	158	45	5	1	5	30	39	1	21	3	285	402	424	826	139	345	20	16	371	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	175	157	41	4	1	3	13	53	2	6	3	261	326	357	682	96	365	30	7	305	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	385	86	12	3	4	39	118	5	27	5	223	303	301	604	78	309	27	9	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	99	83	19	2	1	0	15	19	0	7	3	229	347	277	624	48	292	19	15	294	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	414	350	94	25	4	5	60	95	4	37	5	269	382	406	787	137	356	23	14	358	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	507	444	112	25	2	7	53	105	1	52	9	252	331	365	696	113	311	21	10	312	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	430	109	29	0	13	53	122	2	35	9	253	338	412	750	158	323	25	11	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	191	168	31	3	1	2	20	48	1	21	3	185	275	250	525	65	235	25	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	175	162	28	2	1	2	8	78	2	6	3	173	221	235	455	62	291	45	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	396	70	10	2	3	28	159	5	27	5	177	240	235	475	58	281	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	99	87	18	2	1	0	11	24	0	7	3	207	296	253	549	46	274	24	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	414	370	82	21	3	4	40	131	4	37	5	222	304	327	631	105	331	32	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	507	463	100	21	2	5	37	127	1	52	9	216	275	302	578	86	276	25	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	446	98	26	0	10	37	149	2	35	9	220	282	345	628	126	303	31	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	191	168	31	3	1	2	20	48	1	21	3	185	275	250	525	65	242	25	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	191	158	45	5	1	5	30	39	1	21	3	285	402	424	826	139	345	20	16	371	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	175	162	28	2	1	2	8	78	2	6	3	173	221	235	455	62	306	45	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	175	157	41	4	1	3	13	53	2	6	3	261	326	357	682	96	365	30	7	305	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	396	70	10	2	3	28	159	5	27	5	177	240	235	475	58	284	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	385	86	12	3	4	39	118	5	27	5	223	303	301	604	78	309	27	9	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	457	99	22	4	4	51	155	4	44	8	217	301	309	609	92	318	30	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	513	433	113	27	5	5	75	114	4	44	8	261	375	381	756	120	343	22	15	345	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	507	463	100	21	2	5	37	127	1	52	9	216	275	302	578	86	282	25	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	507	444	112	25	2	7	53	105	1	52	9	252	331	365	696	113	311	21	10	312	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	446	98	26	0	10	37	149	2	35	9	220	282	345	628	126	304	31	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	430	109	29	0	13	53	122	2	35	9	253	338	412	750	158	323	25	11	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	191	168	31	3	1	2	20	48	1	21	3	185	275	250	525	65	235	25	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	175	163	28	2	1	2	8	78	2	6	3	172	221	233	454	61	291	45	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	395	70	10	2	3	28	159	5	27	5	177	240	235	476	58	281	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	453	99	22	4	4	51	155	4	44	8	219	301	311	612	93	320	30	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	507	464	100	21	2	5	37	127	1	52	9	216	275	302	577	86	276	25	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	446	98	26	0	10	37	149	2	35	9	220	282	345	628	126	303	31	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	453	99	22	4	4	51	155	4	44	8	219	301	311	612	93	320	30	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	507	464	100	21	2	5	37	127	1	52	9	216	275	302	577	86	276	25	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	488	446	98	26	0	10	37	149	2	35	9	220	282	345	628	126	303	31	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	2%	598	545	117	27	2	10	46	159	2	19	4	212	276	320	596	108	278	27	8	269	68	-23	+2	+2	+6	+13	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	205	269	306	575	101	269	25	0	260	68	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23%	465	424	92	21	1	9	36	122	2	11	2	217	282	337	619	120	280	26	8	278	74	-14	+1	+1	+5	+10	0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	500	455	99	22	1	11	39	130	2	10	2	220	286	348	634	127	281	26	8	284	79	-13	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	42%	521	472	105	23	2	12	42	134	2	10	2	222	289	354	643	132	282	26	8	288	81	-12	+1	+2	+6	+11	0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	45%	528	478	106	23	2	12	42	136	3	10	2	223	289	354	643	132	282	26	8	288	81	-12	+1	+2	+6	+11	0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	47%	527	477	106	23	2	12	42	136	3	10	2	222	289	353	642	131	281	26	8	287	81	-12	+1	+1	+6	+11	0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	46%	518	470	103	23	1	11	41	135	2	9	3	220	286	347	633	127	280	26	8	284	78	-13	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	46%	507	460	100	22	1	11	40	134	2	9	3	217	283	340	622	123	279	26	8	280	75	-15	+1	-0	+5	+11	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	23%	107	98	20	4	0	2	8	28	0	3	1	210	275	322	597	112	270	26	7	269	74	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	176	159	34	7	0	4	14	46	1	4	1	213	279	332	611	119	271	26	8	275	79	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	42%	219	199	43	9	1	5	17	56	1	4	1	215	281	338	619	123	272	26	8	278	81	-5	+0	+1	+2	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	45%	237	215	47	10	1	5	19	61	1	5	1	215	282	338	620	123	272	26	8	279	81	-5	+1	+1	+3	+5	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	47%	245	222	48	10	1	5	20	63	1	5	1	214	282	337	618	122	272	26	8	278	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	46%	240	218	47	10	1	5	19	62	1	4	1	212	279	331	610	119	271	26	8	275	78	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	46%	235	213	45	9	1	5	19	62	1	4	1	210	276	324	600	115	269	26	8	271	75	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1459	1324	284	59	5	31	116	378	6	29	7	215	281	337	618	122	274	26	8	276	70	-37	+3	+3	+16	+32	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	126	26	2	14	52	168	3	13	3	214	281	336	617	122	273	26	8	276	70	-16	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6081	5519	1177	250	21	107	479	1699	32	261	54	213	280	324	604	111	285	28	8	272	70	-99	+8	+8	+40	+82	4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	125	27	2	11	51	182	3	28	6	212	278	320	598	108	284	28	8	272	70	-17	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 488 PAwOBA .327 → .278 (−50)K% 25.0% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	30.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.86%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.58%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.35%
Singles /BIP	21.75%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.002	×1.027	20.59%
Doubles /BIP	9.42%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.002	×1.027	8.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.002	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.22%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.47%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .327 → .278; ISO .158 → .134; BABIP .323 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 507 PAwOBA .308 → .257 (−51)K% 20.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.71%	÷1.051	×1.270	—	—	25.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.45%	÷1.042	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.21%
HBP% /PA	0.20%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.16%
Singles /BIP	23.01%	÷1.021	×0.920	×1.003	×1.012	21.04%
Doubles /BIP	7.37%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.003	×1.012	6.07%
Triples /BIP	0.59%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.003	×1.012	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	2.06%	÷1.106	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.51%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .308 → .257; ISO .113 → .091; BABIP .311 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 414 PAwOBA .347 → .283 (−64)K% 22.9% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.95%	÷0.985	×1.360	—	—	31.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.01%	÷1.007	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.75%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.76%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.997	×0.920	×1.027	×1.015	22.62%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷0.986	×0.830	×1.027	×1.015	8.60%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.027	×1.015	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.908	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .347 → .283; ISO .137 → .112; BABIP .356 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 99 PAwOBA .291 → .249 (−42)K% 19.2% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.19%	÷1.005	×1.270	—	—	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.15%	÷1.021	×0.710	—	×1.027	10.82%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.009	×0.920	×1.018	×1.027	23.84%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.034	×0.810	×1.018	×1.027	2.56%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.979	×0.850	×1.018	×1.027	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .291 → .249; ISO .048 → .042; BABIP .292 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 431 PAwOBA .273 → .216 (−57)K% 27.4% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.38%	÷1.011	×1.360	—	—	36.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.05%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.65%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.93%
Singles /BIP	25.09%	÷1.046	×0.920	×1.013	×1.030	23.03%
Doubles /BIP	4.49%	÷0.975	×0.830	×1.013	×1.030	3.99%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.013	×1.030	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	1.50%	÷0.957	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .273 → .216; ISO .078 → .060; BABIP .309 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Cubs · 175 PAwOBA .302 → .201 (−101)K% 30.3% → 44.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.29%	÷0.981	×1.440	—	—	44.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.43%	÷1.083	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.28%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.83%
Singles /BIP	31.73%	÷0.993	×0.820	×0.984	×1.008	25.96%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷0.970	×0.720	×0.984	×1.008	2.83%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.054	×0.720	×0.984	×1.008	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.35%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 111, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .302 → .201; ISO .096 → .063; BABIP .365 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 191 PAwOBA .364 → .237 (−127)K% 20.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.42%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	24.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.18%	÷1.015	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.55%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.37%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.993	×0.680	×1.042	×1.008	20.55%
Doubles /BIP	4.20%	÷1.093	×0.600	×1.042	×1.008	2.42%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷0.939	×0.600	×1.042	×1.008	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	4.20%	÷1.528	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 206, 1B 99, 2B 119, 3B 88, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .364 → .237; ISO .139 → .058; BABIP .345 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#3Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.2	1,463	32	28	221	284	350	+16	+3	2.2	2.2
/162	664	15	13	+7.1	+1.6	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cristian Hernández (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	210/274/317	107	278	3	7	27%	8%	68	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	37→47	44→50	52→60	40	191/253/303	112	263	12	21	31%	6%	57	-1.8	231/299/365	134	305	12	39	26%	8%	88	+0.4	232/299/362	129	300	10	41	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	42→44	42→45	52→65	44	208/270/316	107	274	9	20	27%	7%	65	-1.2	229/287/323	94	314	7	28	27%	7%	74	-0.6	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Felix Valerio 2024 · AA	23	42→49	43→45	51→55	46	208/270/320	112	252	11	19	22%	7%	68	-1.0	210/274/309	99	281	9	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	194/271/263	69	269	6	16	28%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	300	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	208/308/324	116	294	11	13	30%	10%	84	+0.1	214/316/317	103	300	9	14	28%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41	44→55	46→50	45	204/280/319	115	283	11	13	30%	8%	72	-0.7	220/279/374	154	275	17	14	26%	6%	84	+0.1	218/278/389	170	267	20	17	26%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	202/261/310	108	272	11	10	29%	6%	61	-1.5	216/274/340	124	275	14	9	26%	6%	74	-0.6	207/266/326	119	257	14	7	25%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Cayden Wallace 2024 · AA	22	45→49	44→50	53→50	45	220/280/345	125	285	10	13	26%	7%	76	-0.4	226/279/351	125	289	12	13	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	46→50	53→55	41	190/255/315	125	268	15	19	34%	7%	61	-1.5	185/268/313	128	266	15	22	34%	8%	66	-1.1	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Noel Cuevas 2015 · AA	23	45→52	42→45	54→55	41	222/264/330	109	282	9	16	24%	5%	66	-1.1	238/272/333	95	307	7	18	24%	3%	70	-0.9	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Peyton Graham 2024 · A	23	42→52	39→45	53→60	42	200/268/288	87	292	7	17	32%	7%	59	-1.6	211/289/307	96	293	7	23	28%	8%	72	-0.7	224/305/325	101	305	8	36	27%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→44	43→45	53→50	47	201/277/314	113	254	10	15	24%	8%	69	-0.9	225/285/338	113	297	9	10	26%	6%	77	-0.3	233/292/342	109	311	9	9	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Jake Rucker 2023 · AAA	23	42	41→45	48→50	44	205/278/313	108	281	8	12	28%	7%	69	-0.9	206/265/307	101	267	9	9	25%	6%	62	-1.4	206/270/322	116	240	13	9	20%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Clay Fuller 2011 · AA	24	42→46	43→45	53→55	44	207/280/319	112	291	11	19	31%	8%	71	-0.8	220/271/337	117	294	13	14	28%	6%	71	-0.8	221/260/336	115	281	15	15	27%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Christopher Bostick 2016 · AA	23	45→55	44→45	55	39	223/269/343	121	289	11	18	27%	5%	72	-0.7	237/286/343	106	313	7	11	25%	5%	78	-0.3	245/298/359	114	318	9	7	25%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Bryce Arnold 2024 · AA	23	42	40→45	53→50	49	201/284/296	95	272	7	11	27%	9%	68	-1.0	186/276/289	103	283	10	10	35%	9%	64	-1.3	162/262/261	99	250	11	9	36%	9%	52	-1.2
✕Brayan Buelvas 2024 · AA	22	37→45	46→50	55	41	190/252/319	129	260	13	18	32%	7%	61	-1.5	204/265/326	122	293	11	16	32%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Brennen Davis 2024 · AAA	24	37→43	43→50	46→45	41	187/271/296	108	268	12	11	33%	7%	63	-1.3	200/289/350	150	264	19	8	31%	8%	83	+0.1	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0

Cristian Hernández

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps