Rafael Ohashi — OGILVIE

Rafael Ohashi P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.1%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	37	168	50	31	2	47%	2.4	21.2%	23.2%	-2.0%	1.1%	5.40	4.83	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	37	168	50	31	2	47%	2.4	29.8%	18.5%	11.3%	1.2%	5.40	3.62	—
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	8	46	189	54	15	6	73%	4.2	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	4.5%	2.96	4.97	—
2022	19	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	8	46	189	54	15	6	73%	4.2	28.6%	7.9%	20.6%	3.2%	2.96	3.43	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	18	94	415	77	51	16	82%	4.3	13.7%	14.5%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.20	5.93	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	18	94	415	77	51	16	82%	4.3	13.7%	14.5%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.20	5.93	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	18	94	415	77	51	16	82%	4.3	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.9%	6.20	5.29	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	23	1	37	163	32	23	2	4%	1.6	15.1%	16.2%	-1.1%	1.4%	4.10	4.67	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	23	1	37	163	32	23	2	4%	1.6	15.1%	16.2%	-1.1%	1.4%	4.10	4.67	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	23	1	37	163	32	23	2	4%	1.6	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	1.2%	4.10	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TOR	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.9%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	33	0	34	145	28	18	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	4.99	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	14	0	15	63	12	8	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	12	8	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	108	27	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		71	34	214	935	157	143	29	48%	3.0	16.8%	15.3%	1.5%	3.1%	5.00	5.32	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	874	147	134	27	48%	3.0	16.8%	15.3%	1.5%	3.1%	5.00	5.32	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Ohashi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.1%	13.9%	2.9%	—	4.99	19.6%	7.2%	34	-0.34	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	80
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	80
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	79
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	79
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	78
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	77
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	76
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	76
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	18.9%	13.1%	1.13	5.20
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99