Rafael Ohashi — OGILVIE

Rafael Ohashi P Vancouver Canadians

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.0%

IP44

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	15	7	37	168	50	31	2	21.2%	23.2%	1.0%	5.40	4.82	+0.1
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	8	46	189	54	15	6	21.1%	9.4%	4.6%	2.96	5.02	-0.0
2023	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	18	94	415	77	51	16	13.7%	14.5%	4.2%	6.20	6.06	-0.9
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	23	1	37	163	32	23	2	15.1%	16.2%	1.4%	4.10	4.66	+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TOR	44	—	44	185	40	20	5	21.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TOR	45	—	45	190	42	19	6	22.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.50	4.45	+0.3
2028	25	MLB	TOR	46	—	46	192	44	18	6	22.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.35	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	TOR	46	—	46	192	44	18	6	23.0%	9.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.33	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	TOR	45	—	45	191	44	18	6	23.1%	9.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	TOR	44	—	44	188	43	18	6	23.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.36	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	TOR	44	—	44	184	42	18	6	22.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+0.3
2033	30	MLB	TOR	42	—	42	178	40	17	5	22.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	TOR	41	—	41	172	39	17	5	22.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	TOR	39	—	39	165	37	16	5	22.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.58	4.63	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	TOR	37	—	37	157	34	16	5	21.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.67	4.73	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	TOR	35	—	35	149	32	15	5	21.5%	10.3%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.0
2038	35	MLB	TOR	33	—	33	141	30	15	5	21.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.88	4.96	-0.0
2039	36	MLB	TOR	31	—	31	132	27	14	5	20.7%	10.8%	3.6%	5.01	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			71	34	214	935	157	143	30	16.8%	15.3%	3.2%	5.00	5.38	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—			66	32	200	874	147	134	28	16.8%	15.3%	3.2%	5.00	5.38	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Ohashi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.6%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.38	22.7%	13.1%	136	-0.23	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	96
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	94
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	92
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	92
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	91
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	91
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	91
Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	90
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	89
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	89
Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	89
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	89
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	23	SU	3.64	20.5%	10.3%	1.8%	.246	3.81	21.2%	12.7%	169	+0.17	2.90	215	89
Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	89
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	89
Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	89
Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	89
Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	88
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.1M
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$2M