Cesar Ayala
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 6 | 26 | 136 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 55% | 2.4 | 15.0% | 18.4% | -3.4% | 8.2% | 9.35 | 8.68 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 6 | 26 | 136 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 55% | 2.4 | 22.1% | 14.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 9.35 | 7.10 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 10 | 42 | 192 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 91% | 3.8 | 11.3% | 19.5% | -8.2% | 6.5% | 7.02 | 8.19 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 10 | 42 | 192 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 91% | 3.8 | 16.7% | 15.6% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 7.02 | 6.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 16 | 68 | 328 | 42 | 62 | 24 | 73% | 3.1 | 12.9% | 19.1% | -6.2% | 7.2% | 7.90 | 8.39 | -2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 47 | 200 | 960 | 123 | 183 | 69 | 73% | 3.1 | 12.9% | 19.1% | -6.2% | 7.2% | 7.90 | 8.39 | -7.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cesar Ayala (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.27 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 26 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 83 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 80 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 78 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 78 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 77 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 77 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 1.17 | 4.34 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |