Michael Morales
P
Arkansas Travelers
+1.0
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.0%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%9.2%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 26 | 120 | 559 | 125 | 50 | 14 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.91 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 22 | 22 | 101 | 435 | 106 | 40 | 7 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.53 | 4.21 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 149 | 610 | 147 | 38 | 13 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.02 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 22 | 22 | 102 | 435 | 70 | 37 | 5 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 4.60 | 4.15 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 3 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 6 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 88 | 43 | 13 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 126 | 535 | 94 | 50 | 14 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 135 | 569 | 110 | 48 | 16 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 148 | 627 | 127 | 51 | 17 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 155 | 656 | 135 | 53 | 18 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 29 | 158 | 668 | 138 | 54 | 18 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 138 | 55 | 19 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 154 | 651 | 134 | 54 | 18 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 150 | 632 | 128 | 53 | 18 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 122 | 52 | 18 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 25 | 139 | 585 | 116 | 51 | 18 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 109 | 49 | 18 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 102 | 48 | 17 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 94 | 46 | 17 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 86 | 45 | 16 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 101 | 483 | 2091 | 351 | 198 | 58 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 865 | 145 | 82 | 24 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.32 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 438 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 96 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 94 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.11 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 262 | 94 |
| Buck Farmer R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 93 |
| Chris Devenski R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 93 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.58 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 297 | -0.16 | 4.31 | 418 | 93 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 92 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .299 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.27 | 3.31 | 571 | 92 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | .286 | 4.48 | 13.4% | 6.2% | 291 | +0.12 | 4.06 | 415 | 91 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 91 |
| Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 91 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.99 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 65 | +0.16 | 3.83 | 155 | 91 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 91 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 91 |
| Jose Reyes R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.11 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.87 | 4.24 | 225 | 91 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .310 | 4.27 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 226 | +0.36 | 3.91 | 320 | 91 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 90 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 90 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .335 | 3.32 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 306 | -1.00 | 2.69 | 423 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.7 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.3 | $13M | +$6M |
| Totals | $18M | $93M | +$74M | ||