Michael Morales
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%14.8%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%7.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 3.80 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 26 | 120 | 559 | 125 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.91 | 5.56 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 26 | 120 | 559 | 125 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 22 | 22 | 101 | 435 | 106 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.45 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 22 | 22 | 101 | 435 | 106 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 3.09 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 610 | 147 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 3.02 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 610 | 147 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 22 | 22 | 102 | 435 | 70 | 37 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.60 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 22 | 22 | 102 | 435 | 70 | 37 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 4.60 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 15 | 15 | 61 | 263 | 52 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 4.1 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 5.16 | 6.20 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 41 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 126 | 537 | 93 | 53 | 19 | — | — | 17.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 59 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.64 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 64 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 66 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 66 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 56 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 232 | 978 | 178 | 71 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.09 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 61 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 113 | 534 | 2308 | 387 | 226 | 83 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.91 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 864 | 145 | 85 | 31 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.91 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.53 | 17.9% | 10.6% | 251 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.03 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 81 | -0.13 | 3.97 | 194 | 91 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 91 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 89 |
| Mason Erla R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 88 |
| Juan Grijalva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.46 | 11.9% | 2.7% | 24 | +1.16 | 4.30 | 110 | 87 |
| Derek Gordon R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 87 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .266 | 4.26 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 262 | 86 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Blaine Knight R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 86 |
| Parker Smith R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 86 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.28 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | .335 | 3.45 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 362 | -0.83 | 2.67 | 479 | 85 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.95 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.0% | 183 | +0.05 | 4.72 | 304 | 85 |
| Connor Noland R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 85 |
| Evan Yates R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 85 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.18 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .323 | 3.85 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.33 | 2.82 | 175 | 85 |
| Derek Casey R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.54 | 13.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .311 | 3.01 | 22.3% | 13.2% | 58 | -2.53 | 3.01 | 180 | 85 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.93 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .340 | 5.24 | 12.4% | 2.9% | 280 | +0.31 | 4.93 | 408 | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 83 | 17.5% | 7.4% | 1.16 | 4.63 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |
| Matt Manning ('24) | 4 | 64 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 4.43 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Chad Bettis ('19) | 5 | 106 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 4.90 |