Michael Morales — OGILVIE

Michael Morales P Arkansas Travelers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%14.8%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5045

CTRL—50

CMD5060

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	3.80	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.10	—
2022	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	120	559	125	50	14	100%	4.6	16.5%	10.6%	6.0%	3.8%	5.91	5.13	—
2022	19	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	26	26	120	559	125	50	14	100%	4.6	22.4%	8.9%	13.4%	2.5%	5.91	3.78	—
2023	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	22	22	101	435	106	40	7	100%	4.6	18.0%	10.9%	7.2%	2.4%	4.53	4.25	—
2023	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	22	22	101	435	106	40	7	100%	4.6	18.0%	10.9%	7.2%	2.4%	4.53	4.25	—
2023	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	22	22	101	435	106	40	7	100%	4.6	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	1.6%	4.53	3.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	3.02	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	3.02	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	2.1%	3.02	3.03	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	13.0%	9.4%	3.7%	1.7%	4.60	4.13	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	13.0%	9.4%	3.7%	1.7%	4.60	4.13	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	1.1%	4.60	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	4.5%	6.11	6.18	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	4.5%	6.11	6.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	SEA	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	20.1%	14.3%	5.8%	3.7%	6.11	5.27	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	7	29	4	2	1	100%	6.8	14.8%	7.9%	6.9%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	73	323	63	44	12	—	—	19.6%	13.7%	5.9%	3.6%	5.98	6.05	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	138	581	98	44	16	100%	5.5	16.9%	7.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.56	4.49	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	139	588	106	43	16	100%	5.8	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.44	4.37	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	139	588	110	43	16	100%	6.1	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.32	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	137	579	109	43	16	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.36	4.35	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	133	562	105	42	16	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	127	536	99	42	16	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	119	504	91	41	16	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.75	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	111	470	83	39	16	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.5%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	103	435	75	38	16	100%	6.1	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.18	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	60	253	43	19	7	100%	5.5	16.9%	7.5%	9.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.45	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	93	393	71	29	10	100%	5.8	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	2.6%	4.40	4.33	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	111	469	88	34	12	100%	6.2	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.28	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	117	494	93	36	13	100%	5.8	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.31	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	119	502	94	38	14	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	90	38	14	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.47	4.53	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	110	464	84	37	15	100%	6.1	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	104	439	78	37	15	100%	6.1	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.4%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	97	410	70	36	15	100%	6.1	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	3.6%	4.99	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	926	3908	709	304	116	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.18	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	153	66	25	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		115	115	540	2339	392	237	71	100%	4.7	16.8%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.62	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	43	200	867	145	88	26	100%	4.7	16.8%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.62	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	14.8%	7.9%	2.7%	—	4.39	17.9%	10.5%	416	-0.33	—	—	—
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	92
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	91
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	91
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	89
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	88
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	88
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	88
Juan Grijalva R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.271	5.91	11.9%	2.7%	24	+1.46	4.45	110	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	87
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	86
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	86
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	86
A.J. Cole R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP	3.85	15.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.252	4.41	19.4%	11.1%	357	+0.56	3.66	529	86
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	86
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	85
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	85
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	85
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Jake Wong R 2019 · 4.03 FIP	22	SP	4.03	16.5%	8.7%	2.2%	.293	3.96	19.5%	7.6%	98	-0.07	3.96	278	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	123	17.9%	7.7%	1.15	4.56
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01