Jackson Phipps — OGILVIE

Jackson Phipps P Stockton Ports

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 133

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%19.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	17	99	466	89	67	12	74%	4.3	14.1%	17.0%	-2.8%	3.3%	6.34	5.89	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	17	99	466	89	67	12	74%	4.3	14.1%	17.0%	-2.8%	3.3%	6.34	5.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	OAK	23	17	99	466	89	67	12	74%	4.3	19.1%	14.4%	4.7%	2.6%	6.34	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	98	416	86	51	12	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.03	4.95	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	98	416	87	50	12	100%	6.2	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.87	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	97	410	86	48	12	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	94	397	83	47	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	90	380	78	46	13	100%	6.0	20.7%	12.1%	8.5%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	84	357	72	44	12	100%	6.0	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	42	177	37	22	5	100%	6.0	20.6%	12.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	65	274	58	33	8	100%	5.9	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.88	4.83	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	75	317	67	37	9	100%	6.2	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	79	334	70	40	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	79	334	69	40	11	100%	6.1	20.7%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	76	321	65	40	11	100%	5.8	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	3.4%	5.11	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	416	1756	365	212	55	100%	5.9	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.94	4.58	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	102	26	100%	6.0	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.94	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	17	99	466	66	79	16	74%	4.3	14.1%	17.0%	-2.8%	3.3%	6.34	5.89	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	938	133	159	31	74%	4.3	14.1%	17.0%	-2.8%	3.3%	6.34	5.89	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Phipps (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	19.9%	14.0%	3.0%	—	4.90	20.9%	8.8%	294	-0.33	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	76
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	75
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	73
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	73
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	72
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	71
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	71
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.46	21.1%	6.8%	141	+0.19	3.41	174	71
Jaime Arias L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	24	SP	5.99	17.5%	13.9%	4.8%	.333	5.34	14.9%	5.2%	54	-0.65	4.38	243	71
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	70
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	70
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	69
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	69
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	69
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	68
Jake Eder L 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP	5.27	22.1%	15.5%	3.8%	.344	4.94	18.6%	9.0%	217	-0.33	2.73	335	68
Cionel Pérez L 2019 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP-	4.89	17.8%	11.8%	3.3%	.336	3.27	24.5%	13.7%	112	-1.62	2.67	514	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	20.7%	12.2%	1.22	4.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58