Jackson Phipps P Stockton Ports
Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 120
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%22.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: -2.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-2KBB: -3.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-3BBCONTACT: -8.1 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-8CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: -0.01 (100 IP)-0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.10.1+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202624AStockton Ports1510612905336967%4.113.5%14.6%-1.1%4.0%6.906.03-1.0
ROS24MLBOAK663916337165100%6.522.8%9.6%13.2%3.0%4.434.43+0.1
ROS24MLBOAK022.8%9.6%13.2%3.0%4.394.39
2026 TOT24MLBOAK10045390521419.9%11.4%8.5%3.1%5.945.41-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBOAK663916638155100%6.523.2%9.2%14.0%3.0%4.374.34+0.1
202826MLBOAK663916639155100%6.523.4%9.2%14.3%3.0%4.334.31+0.1
202927MLBOAK663916338155100%6.423.4%9.2%14.2%3.1%4.344.35+0.1
203028MLBOAK663715837155100%6.223.3%9.4%13.9%3.2%4.404.43+0.1
202725MLBOAK3317721772100%5.723.2%9.2%14.0%2.9%4.334.30+0.0
202826MLBOAK442611026103100%6.523.4%9.2%14.3%2.9%4.294.27+0.1
202927MLBOAK553012730124100%6.023.4%9.2%14.2%3.0%4.304.31+0.1
203028MLBOAK553113131124100%6.223.3%9.4%13.9%3.1%4.364.39+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career17171044391034113100%6.123.4%9.3%14.1%3.0%4.323.95+1.8
/ 200 IP33332008441987925100%6.123.4%9.3%14.1%3.0%4.323.95+3.4
Career15106129039421267%4.113.5%14.6%-1.1%4.0%6.906.03-1.0
/ 200 IP49332009461281393867%4.113.5%14.6%-1.1%4.0%6.906.03-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jackson Phipps (OGILVIE) 4.43 22.8%9.6%3.0% 4.33 23.4%14.2%117 -0.10
Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 23.3%11.3%2.4%.286 4.89 18.1%2.5%99 +1.00 3.89 176 82
Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP 26 SP- 3.30 19.6%7.0%1.8%.252 4.86 13.0%4.2%106 +1.56 3.30 147 79
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP 24 SP- 4.25 21.0%9.9%3.0%.333 4.75 17.3%8.0%104 +0.50 3.42 205 77
A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP 23 SP- 3.68 22.8%10.0%2.3%.262 5.86 20.1%8.4%51 +2.18 3.64 203 76
T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP 24 SP 4.71 21.9%9.0%4.2%.298 4.64 16.9%7.4%231 -0.07 3.39 300 74
Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP 25 SP- 3.64 18.3%6.7%2.3%.314 3.18 21.5%16.7%54 -0.46 3.18 150 74
Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP 23 SP- 3.99 21.8%8.7%3.0%.333 4.17 22.1%15.5%179 +0.18 2.24 269 74
Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP 24 SP- 4.84 20.5%10.5%3.9%.315 4.77 18.0%7.5%56 -0.07 4.77 154 73
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP 24 SP 4.22 20.9%10.1%2.9%.279 2.95 221 72
Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.78 FIP 24 SP- 3.78 17.3%7.1%2.3%.305 4.26 16.9%10.6%73 +0.48 3.78 174 71
Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP 23 SP- 4.77 22.0%15.8%2.8%.302 4.19 128 71
Matt Portland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP 24 SP- 4.64 17.4%11.0%2.9%.364 3.61 143 71
Parker Mushinski L 2025 · 3.61 FIP 23 SP- 3.61 21.6%8.2%2.4%.303 3.72 23.3%13.3%106 +0.11 3.21 439 71
Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP 24 SP 4.00 24.2%11.1%2.8%.333 4.48 21.0%2.7%52 +0.48 3.84 129 71
Max Fried L 2026 · 3.50 FIP 24 SP- 3.50 24.6%11.9%1.8%.326 3.21 23.9%17.4%387 -0.29 2.56 1,397 70
Rodney Boone L 2026 · 4.62 FIP 24 SP- 4.62 18.1%9.8%3.3%.221 3.74 18.5%10.8%78 -0.88 3.74 311 69
JP Sears L 2025 · 3.90 FIP 23 SW 3.90 16.8%8.9%2.0%.268 3.25 24.7%17.8%222 -0.65 2.18 927 69
Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP 24 SP- 5.14 19.2%11.4%4.0%.296 3.95 15.5%4.2%121 -1.19 3.67 288 69
Jojo Ingrassia L 2026 · 3.97 FIP 24 SP- 3.97 26.7%13.8%2.5%.260 2.60 112 69
Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP 24 SP 4.11 22.4%12.6%2.4%.317 3.84 24.2%6.1%32 -0.27 2.75 315 69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION53923.2%9.3%1.184.37
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Matt Albers ('19)54920.3%8.3%1.374.21
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67