Steven Zobac

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTFG #489

Scout OFP41ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	126	3.64	2.54	23.8%	5.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.25
2025	24	MIX2 levels	14	14	45	7.25	5.07	21.3%	7.6%	—	K 17.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.57
2026	25	MIX2 levels	19	19	54	4.50	4.34	24.9%	9.0%	—	K 18.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 6.20
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	10	10	60	4.95	4.95	18.1%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBKC	4	4	25	4.91	4.93	18.6%	8.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBKC	6	6	36	4.93	4.97	18.9%	8.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff41Control56Command56FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Jake Walters (age 26) · Seth Shuman (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4540

CTRL6055

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	1.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	26.2%	6.4%	19.8%	1.3%	3.47	2.45	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	1.4%	3.64	2.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	4.7%	7.25	5.07	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	24.9%	9.0%	15.8%	4.1%	4.50	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	10	10	60	253	46	21	9	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	59	247	46	21	9	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.91	4.93	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	57	240	45	21	9	100%	6.3	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	4.97	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	25	106	20	9	4	100%	6.2	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.91	4.93	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	36	152	29	13	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	60	255	48	22	9	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.92	4.57	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	73	30	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.92	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		80	74	315	1323	249	101	39	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	839	158	64	25	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Zobac (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	18.1%	8.2%	3.6%	—	4.95	18.7%	10.3%	115	-0.00	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	79
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	77
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	76
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	75
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	74
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	74
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	74
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	73
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	73
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.5%	8.4%	1.39	4.93
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*