Chandler Murphy
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+1.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 203 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.7%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 23 | 19 | 92 | 369 | 90 | 23 | 5 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 2.53 | 3.37 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 87 | 34 | 11 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 94 | 36 | 12 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 97 | 37 | 13 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 98 | 37 | 13 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 95 | 36 | 13 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 91 | 36 | 13 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 87 | 35 | 12 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 82 | 34 | 12 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 78 | 33 | 12 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 73 | 32 | 12 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 74 | 29 | 11 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 68 | 27 | 11 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 61 | 26 | 11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 20 | 102 | 415 | 78 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 2.82 | 3.29 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 39 | 200 | 814 | 153 | 63 | 12 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 2.82 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.26 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 305 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 89 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 87 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 85 |
| Hayden Minton R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 85 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 85 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 84 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2027 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.61 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.39 | 3.22 | 221 | 84 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 84 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 84 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 84 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.82 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 105 | +0.58 | 3.24 | 211 | 84 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 83 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 83 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.37 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 179 | +0.05 | 3.69 | 531 | 83 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $8M | $31M | +$23M | ||