Chandler Murphy

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1425ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ROKTB	3	0	3	0.00	3.43	26.7%	20.0%	—	K 26.7% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.38
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	19	92	2.53	2.60	24.4%	6.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.38
2025	24	A+TB	2	1	7	8.10	2.20	19.4%	6.5%	—	K 19.4% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.28
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.30	4.30	21.6%	8.1%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBTB	4	4	23	4.28	4.29	21.8%	8.3%	0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBTB	6	6	34	4.34	4.37	21.8%	8.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Zack Lee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%21.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	1.7%	2.53	3.38	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	1.7%	2.53	3.38	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	1.4%	2.53	2.60	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.28	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.28	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	61	259	57	21	8	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.34	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	57	242	53	21	8	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	23	97	21	8	3	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.28	4.29	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	34	144	31	12	4	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.34	4.37	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	56	238	52	20	7	100%	6.3	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.32	3.96	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	71	25	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.32	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		28	20	102	415	78	32	6	71%	3.6	18.8%	7.7%	11.2%	1.5%	2.82	3.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	39	200	814	153	62	12	71%	3.6	18.8%	7.7%	11.2%	1.5%	2.82	3.29	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 7 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.78 (+0.50)K% 19.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.770	14.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.930	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 52 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.74 (+0.91)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.21%	—	×0.770	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.85%	—	×1.150	5.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.015	×1.250	2.99%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 41 IPFIP 2.25 → 2.91 (+0.67)K% 22.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.09%	—	×0.740	16.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.180	9.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.824	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	21.6%	8.1%	3.0%	—	4.38	21.8%	13.4%	119	+0.08	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	87
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	84
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	76
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	76
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	75
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	75
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	75
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	75
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	74
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	21.8%	8.3%	1.17	4.34
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*