Chandler Murphy — OGILVIE

Chandler Murphy P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%20.4%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	1.7%	2.53	3.38	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	1.7%	2.53	3.38	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	92	369	90	23	5	83%	4.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	1.4%	2.53	2.60	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.28	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.28	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	1	7	31	6	2	0	50%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.0%	8.10	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TB	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	83	351	73	27	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.6%	13.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.27	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	82	346	72	27	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.31	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	79	335	77	24	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.0%	4.19	4.12	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	76	320	72	23	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.2%	4.23	4.25	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	71	301	67	23	10	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.6%	14.6%	3.4%	4.35	4.43	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	281	61	22	10	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	3.6%	4.52	4.63	+0.2
2033	32	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	260	56	22	10	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.4%	13.1%	3.9%	4.72	4.86	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	36	152	32	12	5	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.32	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	46	17	7	100%	5.8	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.36	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	60	253	58	18	8	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.1%	4.24	4.17	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	62	262	59	19	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.28	4.30	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	57	20	9	100%	6.1	22.3%	7.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.41	4.49	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	55	20	9	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	3.7%	4.58	4.69	+0.2
2033	32	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	56	236	51	20	9	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.4%	13.1%	4.0%	4.78	4.92	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	384	1623	356	125	55	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.09	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	65	29	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		28	20	102	415	78	32	6	71%	3.6	18.8%	7.7%	11.2%	1.5%	2.82	3.29	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	39	200	814	153	62	12	71%	3.6	18.8%	7.7%	11.2%	1.5%	2.82	3.29	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	20.4%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.23	21.5%	14.1%	244	-0.07	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	78
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	78
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	78
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	78
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	21.7%	7.7%	1.24	4.35
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58