Chandler Murphy
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 203 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.38 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 92 | 369 | 90 | 23 | 5 | 83% | 4.0 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 1.6% | 2.53 | 3.36 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 92 | 369 | 90 | 23 | 5 | 83% | 4.0 | 24.4% | 6.2% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 2.53 | 2.60 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 2.28 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 2.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 55 | 234 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 218 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 255 | 1079 | 240 | 99 | 34 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.09 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 78 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 20 | 102 | 415 | 78 | 32 | 6 | 71% | 3.6 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 2.82 | 3.28 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 39 | 200 | 814 | 153 | 62 | 12 | 71% | 3.6 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 2.82 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 22.6% | 13.8% | 190 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 84 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 81 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 81 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 80 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 80 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 79 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 78 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 77 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 77 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 76 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 76 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 76 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 75 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .309 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.66 | 3.05 | 907 | 75 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 183 | +0.97 | 3.24 | 289 | 75 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 75 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 75 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 75 |
| Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 75 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.60 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 4.0% | .358 | 3.05 | 25.5% | 19.0% | 196 | -1.55 | 2.28 | 473 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 60 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 1.21 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |