Tyler Boudreau — OGILVIE

Tyler Boudreau P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 169 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2025	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2025	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	21	107	427	118	40	9	95%	4.8	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.8%	3.29	4.40	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	21	107	427	118	40	9	95%	4.8	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.8%	3.29	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYY	21	21	103	415	112	40	9	100%	4.9	27.0%	9.6%	17.3%	2.2%	3.41	3.23	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYY	1	0	4	12	6	0	0	0%	3.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	107	452	103	44	13	100%	5.6	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	108	458	105	42	14	100%	5.7	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.32	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	108	458	106	42	14	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.0%	4.33	4.30	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	451	104	41	14	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	104	437	101	41	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.42	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	99	418	95	40	14	100%	6.2	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.48	4.55	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	93	393	88	39	14	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.5%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	87	366	81	37	13	100%	6.2	22.0%	10.2%	11.9%	3.7%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	46	194	44	19	6	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.58	4.53	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	72	304	70	28	10	100%	6.0	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.43	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	86	363	84	33	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.2%	4.44	4.41	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	89	35	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	3.2%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	92	388	89	36	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.54	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	90	380	87	36	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	3.5%	4.60	4.67	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	86	363	81	36	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.86	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	81	342	75	35	13	100%	5.8	22.0%	10.2%	11.9%	3.9%	4.95	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	643	2715	619	257	92	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	3.4%	4.59	4.24	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	80	29	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	3.4%	4.59	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		26	22	112	447	94	52	12	85%	4.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.7%	3.22	4.26	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	801	169	92	22	85%	4.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.7%	3.22	4.26	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Boudreau (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.2%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.35	23.0%	13.6%	324	-0.23	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	81
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	77
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	22.8%	9.5%	1.22	4.47
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98