Tyler Boudreau

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 169 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#649ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ANYY	4	1	5	1.80	1.30	45.0%	15.0%	—	K 45.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 1.20
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	21	107	3.29	3.11	27.6%	9.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.77	4.77	20.8%	11.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	6	6	34	4.76	4.71	21.3%	10.3%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYY	8	8	49	4.69	4.67	21.5%	10.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCameron Foster (age 24) · Connor Staine (age 23) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%20.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2025	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2025	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	4	1	5	20	9	3	0	25%	1.2	45.0%	15.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.30	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	107	427	118	40	9	95%	4.8	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.8%	3.29	4.40	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	107	427	118	40	9	95%	4.8	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.8%	3.29	4.40	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	107	427	118	40	9	95%	4.8	27.6%	9.4%	18.3%	2.1%	3.29	3.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	79	335	71	34	10	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.60	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	314	68	31	9	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.56	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	300	65	30	9	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.57	4.58	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	67	284	61	29	9	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	62	263	56	27	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.78	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	56	237	49	25	8	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.87	4.96	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	34	144	31	15	5	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.71	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	49	207	45	21	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.67	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	50	23	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.68	4.69	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	51	24	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.77	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	48	24	8	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.84	4.90	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	50	211	44	22	8	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.7%	5.00	5.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	299	1264	269	129	42	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.78	4.43	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	86	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.78	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		26	22	112	447	94	52	12	85%	4.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.7%	3.22	4.26	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	801	169	92	22	85%	4.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.7%	3.22	4.26	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 103 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.40 (+1.17)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.99%	—	×0.740	19.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.64%	—	×1.180	11.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 5 IPFIP 1.20 → 2.53 (+1.33)K% 45.0% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.00%	—	×0.740	33.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.180	17.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.842	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.20 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Boudreau (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	20.8%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.58	21.4%	11.3%	225	-0.19	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	91
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	86
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	86
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	86
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	84
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	84
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	82
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	21.2%	10.3%	1.19	4.68
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*