Matthew Lugo — OGILVIE

Matthew LugoCF Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION406 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%11

BABIP296

ISO178

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1315.2%

xAVG

100.194

POWER55

Barrel%

7111.4

Avg EV

2787.4

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE35

Chase%

3634.4%

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	94	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+10	1.2
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	512	466	134	25	10	18	35	100	7	20	7	288	346	500	846	212	330	20	7	368	135	+22	+1	—	—	+11	3.5
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	140	120	33	3	0	6	11	34	6	2	3	275	365	450	815	175	329	24	8	358	129	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	87	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2024	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	146	129	33	11	0	6	12	38	5	7	0	256	342	481	823	225	318	26	8	364	132	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	171	146	46	10	4	11	20	36	2	9	1	315	398	664	1.062	349	354	21	12	448	189	+18	+1	—	—	+4	2.4
2025	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	306	93	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.1
2025	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	462	424	111	28	5	13	32	136	4	11	7	262	320	443	763	182	356	29	7	336	113	+7	-1	—	—	+10	1.7
2025	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	104	86	24	7	0	1	16	26	1	4	1	279	394	395	790	116	390	25	15	360	130	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	306	93	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	142	25	3	1	1	9	52	3	3	0	176	240	232	473	56	258	33	6	208	27	-14	+1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	431	99	16	3	4	25	131	7	15	4	230	283	309	592	79	306	28	5	257	60	-22	+1	—	—	+10	-1.1
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	512	479	114	20	8	14	23	126	7	20	7	238	283	401	684	163	288	25	4	293	84	-9	+1	—	—	+11	0.3
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	299	60	17	1	4	13	109	5	8	4	201	246	304	550	104	284	34	4	236	46	-21	+0	—	—	+7	-1.4
2024	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	146	132	24	7	0	5	9	51	5	7	0	182	260	348	609	167	244	35	6	262	63	-6	+1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	171	156	38	7	3	9	13	43	2	9	1	244	310	500	810	256	284	25	8	345	120	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	300	89	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.1
2025	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	462	432	84	21	3	9	24	179	4	11	7	194	243	319	563	125	304	39	5	245	52	-26	-1	—	—	+10	-1.7
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	142	25	3	1	1	9	52	3	3	0	176	240	232	473	56	267	33	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	431	99	16	3	4	25	131	7	15	4	230	283	309	592	79	316	28	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	652	604	144	25	10	18	29	161	13	22	10	238	288	402	690	164	293	25	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	652	586	167	28	10	24	46	134	13	22	10	285	350	490	840	205	330	21	7	366	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	299	60	17	1	4	13	109	5	8	4	201	246	304	550	104	295	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	288	61	14	3	13	22	93	7	16	1	212	284	417	701	205	264	29	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	317	275	79	21	4	17	32	74	7	16	1	287	372	578	950	291	337	23	10	409	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	600	120	27	5	16	28	243	6	15	8	200	243	342	585	142	305	38	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	636	579	151	37	6	18	48	186	6	15	8	261	323	439	762	178	355	29	8	336	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	144	25	3	1	1	9	52	3	3	0	174	240	229	469	56	258	33	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	434	99	16	3	4	25	131	7	15	4	228	283	306	589	78	306	28	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	652	605	144	25	10	18	29	161	13	22	10	238	288	402	690	164	288	25	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	301	60	17	1	4	13	109	5	8	4	199	246	302	548	103	284	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	285	61	14	3	13	22	93	7	16	1	214	284	421	705	207	266	29	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	597	120	27	5	16	28	243	6	15	8	201	243	343	586	142	303	38	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	301	60	17	1	4	13	109	5	8	4	199	246	302	548	103	284	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	285	61	14	3	13	22	93	7	16	1	214	284	421	705	207	266	29	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	597	120	27	5	16	28	243	6	15	8	201	243	343	586	142	303	38	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	KC	—	406	364	79	18	4	10	28	123	8	14	7	217	287	371	658	154	294	30	7	283	78	-11	+0	+0	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA RAW	KC	—	159	128	33	6	2	3	23	40	4	11	3	258	385	406	791	148	345	25	14	353	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA RAW	KC	—	247	223	60	17	2	11	17	62	4	3	4	269	332	511	843	242	322	25	7	364	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AAA MLE	KC	45%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		300	33	11	296	86	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	25	MLB CTX	KC	45%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						296	25	0	278	86	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	KC	—	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0							25	0	278	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	AAA MLE	KC	—	415	372	80	18	4	10	29	126	8	14	7	215	286	366	652	151	292	30	7	283	78	-11	+0	-0	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	59%	415	380	84	18	3	13	26	129	6	18	5	221	282	387	668	166	297	31	6	300	89	-5	+2	-7	+1	+9	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	63%	546	497	113	24	4	18	36	166	8	23	7	227	290	400	691	173	297	30	7	302	90	-6	+2	-9	+2	+12	0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	65%	536	487	110	23	4	17	36	162	8	21	6	226	290	394	684	168	296	30	7	302	90	-6	+2	-10	+2	+12	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	65%	414	377	85	18	3	13	28	125	6	15	4	225	290	393	682	167	294	30	7	300	89	-5	+1	-8	+1	+9	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	KC	65%	407	370	81	17	3	12	28	124	6	14	4	219	285	378	663	159	292	30	7	297	87	-6	+1	-9	+1	+9	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	59%	244	223	48	10	2	7	15	76	4	10	3	215	277	372	649	157	294	31	6	283	89	-3	+1	-4	+1	+5	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	63%	345	314	70	15	3	10	23	105	5	15	4	223	287	385	672	162	293	30	7	285	90	-4	+1	-6	+1	+7	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	65%	351	319	71	15	3	10	24	106	5	14	4	223	287	382	670	160	292	30	7	285	90	-4	+1	-6	+1	+8	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	65%	269	244	54	11	2	8	19	81	4	10	3	221	288	381	670	160	291	30	7	283	89	-3	+1	-5	+1	+6	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	KC	65%	263	239	52	11	2	7	18	80	4	9	3	218	284	368	652	151	289	30	7	280	87	-4	+1	-6	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1546	1412	311	64	13	46	99	473	23	58	17	220	282	382	664	161	294	31	6	284	77	-19	+5	-31	+8	+33	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	130	27	5	19	42	199	10	24	7	219	282	377	659	158	293	31	6	284	77	-8	+2	-13	+3	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4880	4483	983	202	40	129	281	1498	75	170	53	219	277	369	645	149	296	31	6	282	77	-30	+8	-46	+11	+52	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	131	27	5	17	37	200	10	23	7	219	276	367	643	147	297	31	6	282	77	-8	+2	-13	+3	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,654	55	64	225	282	397	-15	-20	1.4	1.4
/162	664	22	26	-6.1	-8.0	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Lugo (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	50	35	219/279/385	166	300	8	12	32%	6%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael A. Taylor 2016 · MLB	25	47→53	48→55	55→60	41	232/288/369	138	330	16	24	34%	7%	85	+0.2	233/286/384	151	326	17	26	32%	7%	88	+0.4	240/298/383	143	310	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→54	48→45	58→65	42	230/293/371	140	312	17	33	31%	7%	87	+0.4	233/305/343	110	322	10	40	28%	9%	85	+0.2	233/306/336	103	319	9	43	28%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	42→44	54→60	55→60	45	220/289/398	177	279	22	23	29%	8%	93	+0.8	215/295/355	140	316	16	29	34%	9%	85	+0.2	221/295/426	205	300	26	17	34%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Terry Evans 2008 · AAA	26	49→52	50→55	53→55	37	242/284/396	153	327	17	22	31%	4%	90	+0.6	229/271/372	143	315	16	21	31%	5%	79	-0.2	216/258/354	138	290	15	21	31%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	43→44	51→55	56→55	42	220/284/382	162	298	19	23	32%	7%	86	+0.3	202/275/330	128	280	14	17	31%	8%	72	-0.7	185/267/299	114	254	13	16	31%	9%	59	-1.1
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	39→47	47→50	53→55	45	190/292/330	139	296	15	31	38%	10%	79	-0.2	212/286/364	152	311	18	24	36%	7%	84	+0.1	216/282/366	150	316	19	25	36%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Cade Marlowe 2023 · AAA	26	47→53	52→55	57→60	42	233/300/404	172	329	20	25	34%	8%	98	+1.2	213/284/345	132	321	14	34	35%	8%	78	-0.3	216/288/335	118	322	10	41	34%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Jake Marisnick 2016 · MLB	25	47→54	45→60	56→55	39	234/278/360	126	298	13	29	26%	4%	79	-0.2	226/282/391	165	298	20	21	30%	6%	88	+0.5	231/295/439	208	305	27	18	33%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	44→52	48→50	60	41	214/285/355	141	322	17	33	37%	8%	81	-0.1	197/277/351	154	302	18	33	38%	8%	78	-0.3	212/288/361	150	295	19	38	33%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Romy Gonzalez 2022 · MLB	25	44	49→50	52→55	39	222/275/368	146	313	18	19	34%	6%	80	-0.2	225/269/372	147	317	17	20	33%	5%	78	-0.3	277/323/436	159	352	16	16	25%	6%	111	+0.9
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	43→53	47→50	55→60	41	210/275/347	137	314	14	30	36%	8%	75	-0.5	213/283/367	154	319	17	28	36%	8%	83	+0.1	202/278/363	161	298	19	30	36%	9%	79	-0.2
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	242/311/382	139	321	14	32	28%	9%	97	+1.1	232/303/359	127	319	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.4	235/304/374	140	334	14	24	32%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Bradley Zimmer 2018 · MLB	25	48→51	47→50	59→60	43	229/300/370	141	334	13	29	34%	8%	90	+0.6	230/301/362	132	338	13	22	33%	8%	88	+0.5	202/291/307	105	324	12	23	37%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Jake Slaughter 2023 · AA	26	46→47	47→50	54→55	40	225/294/356	130	314	15	24	32%	6%	85	+0.2	218/287/358	140	305	16	20	32%	7%	82	+0.0	207/277/344	136	292	16	20	33%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Jose Siri 2022 · MLB	27	50→55	50→60	57→55	34	239/284/395	156	359	17	26	37%	5%	89	+0.5	225/276/423	198	311	26	21	35%	6%	94	+0.9	204/261/411	207	270	29	21	36%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Monte Harrison 2022 · MLB	26	46→44	48→50	61→60	35	208/275/345	137	369	18	34	45%	7%	76	-0.4	196/259/307	111	368	12	32	46%	7%	60	-1.6	177/238/268	92	341	9	37	48%	7%	41	-1.6
✕Keon Broxton 2017 · MLB	27	48→50	49→55	62→60	44	229/299/386	157	340	15	36	35%	9%	93	+0.8	208/282/363	155	336	18	32	40%	9%	82	-0.0	192/267/339	148	314	19	33	42%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Derek Fisher 2019 · MLB	25	45→50	52→55	51→55	43	227/297/392	164	320	20	18	34%	8%	94	+0.9	222/303/388	166	312	20	14	33%	10%	95	+1.0	198/288/363	165	272	23	13	34%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	43→45	47→50	54→55	43	214/282/352	138	289	14	19	30%	7%	79	-0.2	212/275/341	129	288	13	21	30%	7%	74	-0.5	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	51→52	46→50	55→60	45	250/303/381	130	299	13	27	21%	6%	93	+0.8	225/288/362	137	265	14	21	20%	7%	83	+0.1	222/287/368	146	263	15	26	21%	7%	82	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps