Matthew Lugo — OGILVIE

Matthew LugoLF Rocket City Trash Pandas

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2028

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .266 / .388

PA152

HR6

SB6

K%36

BB%5

MLB%55%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

42↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.6M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$14M	+$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	157	142	25	3	1	1	9	52	3	3	0	.176	.240	.232	.473	.056	.267	33	6	.208	17	-15	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.9
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	469	432	100	16	3	4	24	130	7	15	4	.231	.283	.310	.593	.079	.317	28	5	.259	56	-23	+1	+0	+2	+13	-0.7
2022	21	A+	2 teams	652	606	141	24	9	20	27	156	13	22	10	.233	.280	.401	.681	.168	.278	24	4	.286	77	-17	+0	+0	+2	+18	0.4
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	322	299	60	17	1	4	13	114	5	8	4	.201	.246	.304	.550	.104	.303	35	4	.239	41	-21	+0	+0	+1	+9	-1.1
2024	23	AA	2 teams	317	288	62	14	2	15	22	96	7	16	1	.215	.287	.434	.721	.219	.266	30	7	.310	95	-2	+3	+0	+1	+9	1.2
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	636	600	122	27	6	16	28	242	6	15	8	.203	.246	.348	.594	.145	.310	38	4	.256	54	-33	-0	-4	+2	+18	-1.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	2 teams	83	69	16	2	0	0	11	28	2	4	0	.232	.354	.261	.615	.029	.381	34	13	.285	76	-2	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	LAA	69	63	14	3	0	2	5	24	1	2	0	.222	.290	.365	.655	.143	.317	35	7	.294	83	-1	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.0
TOT	25	MLB	LAA	152	132	30	5	0	2	16	52	3	6	0	.227	.325	.311	.635	.083	.354	34	11	.289	80	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 73%	LAA	415	374	86	16	2	14	32	123	6	12	1	.230	.301	.396	.697	.166	.299	30	8	.308	94	-3	+2	-6	+1	+12	0.7
2028	27	MLB 89%	LAA	421	379	87	16	2	14	33	123	6	12	1	.230	.301	.393	.695	.164	.299	29	8	.309	95	-2	+2	-6	+2	+12	0.7
2029	28	MLB 94%	LAA	422	379	87	16	2	14	34	123	6	12	1	.230	.303	.393	.696	.164	.298	29	8	.309	95	-3	+2	-7	+2	+12	0.6
2030	29	MLB	LAA	414	372	85	16	2	13	33	121	6	11	1	.228	.302	.387	.689	.159	.297	29	8	.307	93	-3	+2	-7	+1	+12	0.5
2031	30	MLB	LAA	407	365	82	15	2	13	33	121	6	10	0	.225	.300	.384	.683	.159	.296	30	8	.304	91	-4	+2	-8	+1	+12	0.3
2032	31	MLB	LAA	392	352	79	15	2	12	32	118	5	8	0	.224	.298	.381	.679	.156	.294	30	8	.300	88	-5	+2	-8	+1	+11	0.0
2033	32	MLB	LAA	373	335	74	14	2	11	30	114	5	6	0	.221	.295	.373	.668	.152	.293	31	8	.296	84	-7	+1	-9	+1	+11	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	LAA	343	309	66	12	1	10	27	107	4	4	0	.214	.285	.356	.641	.142	.291	31	8	.290	80	-8	+1	-9	+1	+10	-0.5
2035	34	MLB	LAA	299	269	56	10	1	8	24	96	4	3	0	.208	.283	.342	.625	.134	.289	32	8	.283	75	-8	+1	-9	+1	+8	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6108	5564	1226	234	38	171	406	1860	90	159	31	.220	.284	.368	.652	.148	.296	30	7	.287	78	-155	+19	-74	+22	+173	-1.5
/ 162G	—			650	592	130	25	4	18	43	198	10	17	3	.220	.284	.367	.650	.147	.296	30	7	.287	78	-17	+2	-8	+2	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	.257	.344	.331	.675	.074	.340	23	10	.307	93	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	.270	.341	.364	.705	.093	.335	20	8	.317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+13	1.5
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	512	466	134	25	10	18	35	100	7	20	7	.288	.346	.500	.846	.212	.330	20	7	.368	140	+23	+1	—	—	+15	4.0
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	140	120	33	3	0	6	11	34	6	2	3	.275	.365	.450	.815	.175	.329	24	8	.358	132	+5	-1	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	.242	.297	.381	.677	.138	.327	28	6	.297	85	-5	+0	—	—	+9	0.4
2024	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	146	129	33	11	0	6	12	38	5	7	0	.256	.342	.481	.823	.225	.318	26	8	.364	137	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	171	146	46	10	4	11	20	36	2	9	1	.315	.398	.664	1.062	.349	.354	21	12	.448	201	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2025	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	.232	.243	.464	.707	.232	.293	34	0	.306	92	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.0
2025	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	462	424	111	28	5	13	32	136	4	11	7	.262	.320	.443	.763	.182	.356	29	7	.336	115	+8	-1	—	—	+13	2.1
2025	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	104	86	24	7	0	1	16	26	1	4	1	.279	.394	.395	.790	.116	.390	25	15	.360	134	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	.232	.243	.464	.707	.232	.293	34	0	.306	92	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Lugo (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	50	35	.214/.266/.388	.174	.303	6	4	36%	5%	81	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Romy Gonzalez 2023 · MLB	26	44	52→55	50→55	37	.225/.272/.383	.158	.319	21	17	36%	6%	80	+0.4	.241/.284/.400	.159	.327	18	20	31%	5%	89	+1.0	.282/.326/.450	.168	.355	17	19	25%	5%	116	+1.5
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	41→46	54→60	49→50	41	.216/.279/.394	.178	.298	22	15	34%	7%	86	+0.8	.225/.298/.429	.204	.290	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	.219/.298/.421	.202	.276	27	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Joe Benson 2013 · MLB	25	43→50	52→60	51→50	41	.220/.286/.394	.174	.297	19	15	32%	7%	89	+1.0	.209/.275/.332	.123	.289	11	13	30%	7%	68	-0.5	.208/.279/.321	.113	.282	9	13	28%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	52→50	37	.208/.266/.387	.178	.310	23	17	39%	7%	79	+0.3	.209/.272/.395	.186	.271	26	12	32%	7%	84	+0.6	.200/.266/.385	.185	.241	27	10	30%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→45	55→60	54→60	39	.221/.279/.401	.180	.298	24	19	34%	6%	89	+0.9	.219/.293/.380	.161	.300	19	27	32%	9%	89	+0.9	.221/.295/.429	.208	.301	26	17	34%	9%	97	+0.7
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2023 · MLB	25	44→45	52→55	43→45	36	.218/.271/.374	.155	.334	21	8	40%	6%	78	+0.2	.223/.288/.394	.171	.338	24	7	38%	8%	90	+1.0	.217/.289/.391	.174	.320	25	6	38%	8%	86	+0.4
✕Wladimir Balentien 2008 · AAA	24	42→45	52→55	49→50	41	.218/.275/.386	.167	.290	21	12	32%	7%	82	+0.5	.221/.281/.392	.171	.271	21	9	26%	7%	86	+0.8	.219/.279/.399	.180	.260	22	7	25%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Daniel Palka 2017 · AAA	25	39→43	55→60	49→50	38	.207/.262/.389	.182	.297	24	10	38%	7%	78	+0.2	.219/.270/.394	.175	.296	24	6	33%	6%	82	+0.5	.212/.281/.401	.189	.265	26	4	30%	8%	87	+0.7
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2022 · MLB	25	43	51→55	49→50	39	.222/.272/.381	.159	.296	20	9	32%	6%	79	+0.3	.218/.283/.385	.167	.287	21	8	31%	7%	86	+0.8	.205/.273/.381	.176	.259	23	5	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Terry Evans 2007 · AA	25	44→52	51→55	52→55	37	.228/.282/.385	.158	.309	20	19	33%	5%	85	+0.7	.235/.279/.385	.150	.326	17	21	32%	5%	83	+0.6	.230/.270/.375	.145	.320	15	23	32%	5%	74	-0.0
●Mickey Moniak 2023 · MLB	25	39→49	51→60	50	37	.208/.252/.369	.161	.273	19	10	32%	5%	68	-0.5	.239/.277/.426	.187	.312	23	11	30%	4%	94	+1.3	.246/.285/.451	.204	.307	26	11	28%	4%	101	+1.4
●Alex Liddi 2014 · MLB	25	42→52	49→60	49→50	37	.215/.262/.366	.151	.308	17	10	35%	6%	71	-0.3	.209/.251/.350	.141	.312	15	9	36%	5%	63	-0.9	.220/.273/.402	.182	.288	26	8	33%	6%	84	+0.4
✕Michael Hermosillo 2021 · MLB	26	39→46	49→55	49→55	38	.201/.276/.347	.146	.291	17	13	36%	6%	73	-0.1	.223/.311/.402	.179	.301	21	15	32%	7%	102	+1.9	.209/.294/.409	.200	.252	28	18	29%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Jai Miller 2010 · AAA	25	45→46	49→55	50→55	40	.222/.281/.374	.152	.319	17	13	35%	7%	82	+0.5	.203/.266/.369	.166	.343	20	11	44%	7%	75	-0.0	.179/.249/.349	.170	.325	22	11	49%	8%	60	-0.7
●David Villar 2022 · AA	25	43→42	52→60	48→40	38	.218/.283/.380	.161	.312	20	6	35%	6%	85	+0.7	.219/.303/.409	.190	.291	25	5	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.206/.295/.384	.178	.272	23	3	32%	9%	88	+0.8
●Tyler Fitzgerald 2023 · AA	25	38→48	51→55	53→55	34	.195/.259/.352	.157	.307	20	14	41%	6%	67	-0.5	.227/.286/.397	.170	.317	20	21	33%	6%	90	+1.0	.234/.294/.402	.168	.313	20	23	31%	7%	93	+1.0
●Adolis García 2019 · MLB	26	41→48	50→60	48→50	35	.218/.250/.376	.157	.282	18	13	30%	4%	69	-0.4	.210/.249/.390	.180	.283	23	13	34%	4%	73	-0.1	.239/.300/.446	.207	.298	27	16	29%	7%	106	+2.3
✕Alex Castellanos 2014 · MLB	27	42→50	51→55	53→50	39	.218/.282/.382	.164	.290	19	17	31%	6%	85	+0.7	.210/.270/.351	.141	.299	15	12	33%	6%	72	-0.2	.208/.268/.348	.140	.303	14	8	34%	6%	66	-0.3
●Jo Adell 2023 · MLB	24	40→44	54→65	47→50	35	.212/.262/.389	.176	.300	22	9	36%	5%	78	+0.2	.217/.279/.423	.206	.277	28	12	32%	7%	95	+1.4	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
✕Wilkin Ramirez 2011 · AAA	25	41→50	51→55	54→55	36	.211/.263/.371	.160	.316	19	22	38%	6%	73	-0.1	.225/.265/.379	.154	.308	18	17	32%	5%	76	+0.1	.238/.272/.387	.149	.308	16	16	28%	4%	77	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)