Matthew Lugo — OGILVIE

Matthew LugoLF Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA HR -4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION332 act + 221 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .283 / .377

PA221

HR7

SB11

K%32

BB%6

BABIP298

ISO159

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1017.8%

xwOBA

100.260

POWER55

Barrel%

8413.3

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE35

Chase%

1040.3%

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$7M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	157	142	25	3	1	1	9	52	3	3	0	176	240	232	473	56	267	33	6	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	469	432	99	15	3	4	24	135	7	15	4	229	281	306	586	76	319	29	5	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	2 teams	—	652	604	147	26	9	19	29	153	13	22	10	243	293	411	703	167	293	23	4	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	2 teams	—	652	586	167	28	10	24	46	134	13	22	10	285	350	490	840	205	330	21	7	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	300	57	14	1	4	12	115	5	8	4	190	233	283	517	93	286	36	4	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	317	288	61	12	3	15	22	96	7	16	1	212	284	431	714	219	260	30	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	317	275	79	21	4	17	32	74	7	16	1	287	372	578	950	291	337	23	10	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	636	599	115	26	5	16	29	248	6	15	8	192	237	332	569	140	296	39	5	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	636	579	151	37	6	18	48	186	6	15	8	261	323	439	762	178	355	29	8	336	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	LAA	—	332	293	65	13	2	9	26	97	9	13	5	222	305	372	677	150	295	29	8	298	86	-5	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.6
YTD	25	AAA	LAA	—	332	280	75	16	2	11	38	77	9	13	5	268	372	457	829	189	328	23	11	366	138	+14	+1	+0	+1	+9	2.6
ROS	25	AAA	LAA	55%	221	201	44	9	1	7	14	71	4	11	3	219	283	377	660	159	301	32	6	301	88	-3	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.2
ROS	25	MLB	LAA	55%	122	111	25	5	1	4	8	39	2	6	2	225	289	396	686	171	299	32	7	284	76	-3	+0	-2	+0	+3	-0.1
FULL	25	AAA	LAA	—	454	404	90	18	3	13	34	136	11	19	7	223	301	379	679	156	297	30	7	294	83	-9	+1	-2	+2	+13	0.5
TOT	25	AAA	LAA	—	553	494	109	22	3	16	40	168	13	24	8	220	296	374	670	154	296	30	7	299	87	-8	+2	-4	+2	+16	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	LAA	63%	606	549	125	25	4	21	41	189	11	27	7	228	295	403	697	175	300	31	7	305	92	-6	+3	-10	+2	+17	0.6
2028	27	MLB	LAA	66%	594	537	121	24	3	20	42	182	10	27	6	225	294	393	687	168	299	31	7	307	93	-5	+3	-10	+2	+17	0.8
2029	28	MLB	LAA	67%	582	525	120	24	3	20	42	177	10	25	6	229	298	400	698	171	298	30	7	306	93	-5	+3	-10	+2	+16	0.6
2030	29	MLB	LAA	66%	571	515	116	23	3	19	42	174	9	23	5	225	295	392	687	167	296	30	7	305	91	-6	+3	-11	+2	+16	0.4
2031	30	MLB	LAA	65%	559	504	112	22	3	18	41	171	9	20	5	222	292	385	677	163	295	31	7	301	89	-7	+2	-11	+2	+16	0.2
2032	31	MLB	LAA	65%	548	494	108	21	3	17	40	170	9	17	4	219	289	377	666	158	292	31	7	297	86	-9	+2	-12	+2	+16	-0.2
2027	26	MLB	LAA	63%	384	348	78	15	2	13	26	120	7	17	4	224	291	391	682	167	298	31	7	290	80	-9	+2	-6	+1	+11	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	LAA	66%	390	353	80	16	2	13	27	120	7	18	4	227	295	394	688	167	298	31	7	292	82	-8	+2	-6	+1	+11	-0.0
2029	28	MLB	LAA	67%	388	350	79	15	2	13	28	118	7	17	4	226	296	391	688	166	296	30	7	292	82	-8	+2	-7	+1	+11	-0.1
2030	29	MLB	LAA	66%	375	339	76	15	2	12	27	114	6	15	4	224	293	386	679	162	295	30	7	290	80	-8	+1	-7	+1	+11	-0.2
2031	30	MLB	LAA	65%	364	328	73	14	2	12	27	112	6	13	3	223	294	387	681	165	293	31	7	287	78	-9	+1	-7	+1	+10	-0.3
2032	31	MLB	LAA	65%	355	320	71	14	2	11	26	110	6	11	3	222	293	381	674	159	290	31	7	283	75	-10	+1	-8	+1	+10	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2448	2218	498	96	14	82	169	757	42	97	24	225	292	391	683	167	299	31	7	290	80	-56	+10	-48	+11	+69	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	132	25	4	22	45	201	11	26	6	224	291	392	684	168	298	31	7	290	80	-15	+3	-13	+3	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	6234	5690	1250	244	42	181	387	1933	103	229	63	220	282	373	654	153	296	31	6	287	78	-155	+21	-72	+22	+177	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	130	25	4	19	40	202	11	24	7	219	281	371	652	152	295	31	6	287	78	-16	+2	-7	+2	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	93	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+13	1.5
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	512	466	134	25	10	18	35	100	7	20	7	288	346	500	846	212	330	20	7	368	140	+23	+1	—	—	+15	4.0
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	140	120	33	3	0	6	11	34	6	2	3	275	365	450	815	175	329	24	8	358	132	+5	-1	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	85	-5	+0	—	—	+9	0.4
2024	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	146	129	33	11	0	6	12	38	5	7	0	256	342	481	823	225	318	26	8	364	137	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	171	146	46	10	4	11	20	36	2	9	1	315	398	664	1.062	349	354	21	12	448	201	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2025	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	306	92	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.0
2025	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	462	424	111	28	5	13	32	136	4	11	7	262	320	443	763	182	356	29	7	336	115	+8	-1	—	—	+13	2.1
2025	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	104	86	24	7	0	1	16	26	1	4	1	279	394	395	790	116	390	25	15	360	134	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	306	92	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,464	84	99	225	289	395	-23	-20	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	23	27	225	289	395	-6.3	-5.4	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Lugo (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	50	35	220/296/374	154	296	16	24	30%	7%	87	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	44→43	51→55	60	40	219/289/375	157	325	20	33	37%	8%	85	+0.7	199/279/367	168	305	21	33	39%	8%	80	+0.4	219/291/395	177	297	25	40	34%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44	51→60	59→60	44	221/293/377	156	305	19	31	33%	8%	88	+0.9	219/300/386	167	319	20	25	35%	10%	93	+1.3	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Michael A. Taylor 2016 · MLB	25	46→53	48→55	55→60	40	227/284/365	139	329	17	24	35%	7%	80	+0.4	232/284/382	150	326	17	26	32%	7%	85	+0.7	242/299/384	143	312	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	39→44	48→55	53→55	45	191/295/337	145	304	16	31	39%	10%	80	+0.4	218/290/385	167	318	20	24	36%	7%	89	+1.0	221/285/392	171	317	22	26	36%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	42→43	52→55	56→55	41	217/280/383	166	298	20	23	34%	7%	84	+0.6	203/276/341	138	281	16	17	32%	8%	72	-0.2	188/269/315	127	256	15	16	31%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	43→53	48→55	55→60	41	213/274/360	148	314	16	30	36%	8%	76	+0.0	216/283/384	168	322	20	28	37%	8%	85	+0.7	207/280/385	178	304	21	30	37%	9%	82	+0.4
✕Terry Evans 2007 · AA	25	45→52	52→55	52→55	37	232/285/396	164	313	21	20	32%	5%	89	+1.0	236/279/385	149	329	16	21	32%	5%	83	+0.6	230/270/375	145	320	15	23	32%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Romy Gonzalez 2022 · MLB	25	43→41	50	52→55	37	218/267/370	152	309	19	19	35%	6%	75	-0.0	222/264/367	145	315	17	20	34%	5%	72	-0.2	253/296/402	149	335	16	16	28%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Cade Marlowe 2023 · AAA	26	47→52	55	57→60	41	238/304/426	188	335	23	25	35%	8%	105	+2.1	215/285/351	136	323	14	34	35%	8%	77	+0.1	213/285/330	117	316	9	42	33%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→48	49→55	58→60	40	227/283/383	156	332	16	25	35%	7%	84	+0.6	218/290/386	168	342	19	35	39%	9%	89	+0.9	199/280/366	166	324	20	40	42%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Monte Harrison 2022 · MLB	26	48→44	52→50	60	34	216/280/375	159	382	22	34	46%	7%	82	+0.5	201/260/321	120	379	14	32	47%	7%	59	-1.1	180/240/278	98	352	10	37	48%	7%	37	-1.4
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	45→52	50	57→60	41	234/284/381	148	293	18	31	27%	5%	85	+0.7	215/279/345	130	270	16	25	26%	6%	73	-0.1	206/267/320	115	269	15	25	28%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Wilkin Ramirez 2010 · AAA	24	45→49	49→55	57→55	37	223/271/367	144	326	16	27	36%	6%	76	+0.0	215/261/379	164	306	20	19	35%	5%	74	-0.1	240/274/397	157	307	17	16	27%	4%	80	+0.2
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→48	53→55	53→55	44	228/293/405	176	290	21	24	29%	8%	95	+1.4	199/253/331	132	275	13	16	31%	6%	59	-1.1	189/253/305	116	256	9	10	28%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	43→45	49→55	53→55	42	219/285/370	151	290	16	19	30%	7%	82	+0.5	213/277/349	136	287	15	21	30%	7%	73	-0.1	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Jake Slaughter 2023 · AA	26	46→47	48→50	54→55	40	226/297/364	138	321	16	24	33%	6%	86	+0.8	220/288/369	149	305	18	20	32%	7%	84	+0.6	209/278/355	146	288	18	20	33%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Bradley Zimmer 2018 · MLB	25	48→51	48→50	58→60	42	228/299/373	145	335	15	29	34%	8%	89	+1.0	230/301/365	135	338	14	22	34%	8%	88	+0.9	203/292/309	105	325	12	23	37%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Jose Siri 2022 · MLB	27	50→57	52→65	57→55	34	243/287/415	172	366	20	26	38%	5%	95	+1.4	227/278/435	208	311	27	21	35%	6%	97	+1.5	206/264/422	216	269	31	17	36%	6%	87	+0.5
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	53→50	37	208/268/384	176	312	22	17	40%	7%	79	+0.3	213/276/406	193	274	27	11	32%	7%	89	+0.9	206/270/403	197	248	29	10	30%	7%	83	+0.4