Matthew Lugo
CF Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 317 | .287/.372/.578 | 17 | 16 | 103 | — | .229/.300/.448 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 566 | .265/.333/.435 | 14 | 15 | 79 | — | .218/.265/.352 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBLAA | 70 | .232/.243/.464 | 4 | 0 | 93 | -0.1 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 425 | .261/.348/.470 | 15 | 14 | 79 | — | .215/.286/.366 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBKC | 15 | .143/.200/.143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBKC | 70 | .230/.288/.406 | 2 | 4 | 97 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 273 | .230/.288/.402 | 9 | 16 | 96 | 0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 28 | MLBKC | 293 | .228/.287/.397 | 9 | 15 | 95 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 157 | 136 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 257 | 344 | 331 | 675 | 74 | 340 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 469 | 418 | 113 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 270 | 341 | 364 | 705 | 93 | 335 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 512 | 466 | 134 | 25 | 10 | 18 | 35 | 100 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 288 | 346 | 500 | 846 | 212 | 330 | 20 | 7 | 368 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 140 | 120 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 275 | 365 | 450 | 815 | 175 | 329 | 24 | 8 | 358 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 322 | 289 | 70 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 242 | 297 | 381 | 677 | 138 | 327 | 28 | 6 | 297 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 146 | 129 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 256 | 342 | 481 | 823 | 225 | 318 | 26 | 8 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 171 | 146 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 36 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 315 | 398 | 664 | 1.062 | 349 | 354 | 21 | 12 | 448 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 70 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 243 | 464 | 707 | 232 | 293 | 34 | 0 | 306 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 462 | 424 | 111 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 136 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 262 | 320 | 443 | 763 | 182 | 356 | 29 | 7 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 104 | 86 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 279 | 394 | 395 | 790 | 116 | 390 | 25 | 15 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 143 | 343 | 250 | 40 | 7 | 167 | 0 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +0 | 0.0 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 266 | 240 | 63 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 67 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 263 | 327 | 504 | 831 | 242 | 313 | 25 | 7 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 159 | 128 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 40 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 258 | 385 | 406 | 791 | 148 | 345 | 25 | 14 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 85 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 235 | 410 | 645 | 193 | 286 | 35 | 1 | 281 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +2 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 157 | 141 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 184 | 253 | 241 | 494 | 57 | 264 | 33 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 469 | 430 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 235 | 289 | 314 | 603 | 79 | 316 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 512 | 480 | 114 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 124 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 237 | 281 | 408 | 689 | 171 | 280 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 322 | 298 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 109 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 211 | 259 | 315 | 574 | 104 | 301 | 34 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 146 | 132 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 205 | 281 | 379 | 660 | 174 | 263 | 32 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 171 | 156 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 250 | 316 | 506 | 822 | 256 | 298 | 25 | 8 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 70 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 243 | 464 | 707 | 232 | 293 | 34 | 0 | 305 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 462 | 432 | 94 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 167 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 218 | 265 | 352 | 617 | 134 | 330 | 36 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 143 | 343 | 250 | 40 | 7 | 168 | 0 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +0 | 0.0 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 266 | 245 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 216 | 270 | 392 | 662 | 176 | 276 | 30 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 159 | 136 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 213 | 314 | 324 | 638 | 110 | 297 | 31 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 157 | 141 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 184 | 253 | 241 | 494 | 57 | 281 | 33 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 157 | 136 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 257 | 344 | 331 | 675 | 74 | 340 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 469 | 430 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 235 | 289 | 314 | 603 | 79 | 323 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 469 | 418 | 113 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 270 | 341 | 364 | 705 | 93 | 335 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 652 | 606 | 145 | 25 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 158 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 239 | 286 | 414 | 701 | 175 | 287 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 652 | 586 | 167 | 28 | 10 | 24 | 46 | 134 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 285 | 350 | 490 | 840 | 205 | 330 | 21 | 7 | 366 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 322 | 298 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 109 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 211 | 259 | 315 | 574 | 104 | 312 | 34 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 322 | 289 | 70 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 242 | 297 | 381 | 677 | 138 | 327 | 28 | 6 | 297 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 287 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 230 | 303 | 449 | 752 | 220 | 284 | 28 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 317 | 275 | 79 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 74 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 287 | 372 | 578 | 950 | 291 | 337 | 23 | 10 | 409 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 636 | 599 | 132 | 30 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 228 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 220 | 263 | 369 | 632 | 149 | 329 | 36 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 636 | 579 | 151 | 37 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 186 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 261 | 323 | 439 | 762 | 178 | 355 | 29 | 8 | 336 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 396 | 85 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 135 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 215 | 283 | 369 | 652 | 154 | 291 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 440 | 382 | 98 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 113 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 257 | 343 | 458 | 801 | 202 | 322 | 26 | 10 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 157 | 143 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 253 | 238 | 491 | 56 | 264 | 33 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 469 | 433 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 233 | 289 | 312 | 601 | 79 | 316 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 652 | 607 | 145 | 25 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 158 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 239 | 286 | 414 | 700 | 175 | 280 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 322 | 300 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 109 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 210 | 259 | 313 | 572 | 103 | 301 | 34 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 284 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 232 | 303 | 454 | 757 | 222 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 636 | 596 | 132 | 30 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 228 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 221 | 263 | 371 | 634 | 149 | 325 | 36 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 399 | 85 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 135 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 213 | 283 | 366 | 649 | 153 | 283 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 284 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 232 | 303 | 454 | 757 | 222 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 636 | 596 | 132 | 30 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 228 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 221 | 263 | 371 | 634 | 149 | 325 | 36 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 399 | 85 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 135 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 213 | 283 | 366 | 649 | 153 | 283 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 45% | 380 | 349 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 119 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 234 | 291 | 417 | 708 | 183 | 310 | 31 | 6 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +3 | -4 | +1 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 45% | 70 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 288 | 406 | 693 | 175 | 307 | 31 | 6 | 305 | 97 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 56% | 489 | 449 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 151 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 233 | 291 | 414 | 705 | 181 | 308 | 31 | 6 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +4 | -5 | +2 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 62% | 475 | 436 | 101 | 21 | 4 | 16 | 30 | 146 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 232 | 291 | 409 | 699 | 177 | 305 | 31 | 6 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +3 | -6 | +2 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | KC | 63% | 463 | 425 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 29 | 142 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 230 | 289 | 402 | 691 | 172 | 303 | 31 | 6 | 305 | 92 | -4 | +3 | -6 | +2 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 63% | 451 | 413 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 138 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 227 | 286 | 394 | 680 | 167 | 299 | 31 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -6 | +2 | -7 | +2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 56% | 273 | 250 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 85 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 230 | 288 | 402 | 691 | 173 | 305 | 31 | 6 | 304 | 96 | -1 | +2 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 62% | 293 | 269 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 90 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 228 | 287 | 397 | 685 | 169 | 303 | 31 | 6 | 302 | 95 | -2 | +2 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | KC | 63% | 291 | 267 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 89 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 286 | 391 | 677 | 165 | 300 | 31 | 6 | 299 | 92 | -3 | +2 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 63% | 286 | 262 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 87 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 224 | 283 | 383 | 666 | 159 | 297 | 30 | 6 | 295 | 90 | -4 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1228 | 1131 | 255 | 51 | 9 | 40 | 72 | 381 | 17 | 55 | 10 | 225 | 282 | 393 | 675 | 167 | 301 | 31 | 6 | 299 | 81 | -12 | +7 | -19 | +8 | +27 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 202 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 225 | 282 | 392 | 674 | 167 | 302 | 31 | 6 | 299 | 81 | -6 | +4 | -10 | +4 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5026 | 4623 | 1049 | 214 | 43 | 140 | 286 | 1528 | 76 | 193 | 53 | 227 | 283 | 383 | 666 | 156 | 305 | 30 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -18 | +13 | -30 | +11 | +46 | 2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 136 | 28 | 6 | 18 | 37 | 198 | 10 | 25 | 7 | 227 | 284 | 385 | 669 | 157 | 306 | 30 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +4 | -9 | +3 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 266 PAwOBA .352 → .284 (−68)K% 25.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 16.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 8.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .352 → .284; ISO .242 → .182; BABIP .313 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 159 PAwOBA .349 → .287 (−62)K% 25.2% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.52% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .349 → .287; ISO .148 → .127; BABIP .345 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 462 PAwOBA .327 → .268 (−58)K% 29.4% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.44% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.57% | ÷1.046 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.048 | 21.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.048 | 8.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.079 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.048 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.51% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .327 → .268; ISO .182 → .139; BABIP .356 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 171 PAwOBA .434 → .357 (−77)K% 21.1% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.09% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 18.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .434 → .357; ISO .349 → .280; BABIP .354 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 146 PAwOBA .354 → .278 (−76)K% 26.0% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.03% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.22% | ÷0.944 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 3.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.58% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.050 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.09% | ÷1.141 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.050 | 8.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.47% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .354 → .278; ISO .225 → .166; BABIP .318 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 322 PAwOBA .293 → .248 (−44)K% 27.6% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.90% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 20.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.50% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 8.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .293 → .248; ISO .138 → .106; BABIP .327 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 512 PAwOBA .360 → .293 (−67)K% 19.5% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.53% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.73% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 4.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .360 → .293; ISO .212 → .178; BABIP .330 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 469 PAwOBA .312 → .264 (−48)K% 20.0% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.04% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.10% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.23% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.030 | 25.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.030 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×1.030 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.858 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .312 → .264; ISO .093 → .079; BABIP .335 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .