Angel Bastardo

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#400ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	24	24	119	4.68	3.51	29.4%	10.9%	—	K 22.8% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.73
2024	22	AABOS	10	10	45	5.36	3.87	26.6%	10.6%	—	K 21.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.70
2026	24	AAABOS	40	0	54	4.64	3.91	31.6%	14.3%	—	K 27.2% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	2	2	14	4.59	4.59	26.9%	13.2%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBBOS	10	10	58	4.50	4.50	26.6%	12.6%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBBOS	12	12	72	4.50	4.51	26.2%	12.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$1M2033Ext$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 5.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsLucas Sims (age 25) · David Phelps (age 25) · Brandon Woodruff (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%26.9%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 1	12	12	51	202	37	12	1	100%	4.2	12.5%	7.4%	5.0%	0.7%	3.71	3.37	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 1	12	12	51	202	37	12	1	100%	4.2	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	0.5%	3.71	2.61	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	6	30	147	33	12	1	60%	3.0	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.0%	6.67	3.65	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	10	6	30	147	33	12	1	60%	3.0	22.4%	8.2%	14.3%	0.7%	6.67	2.53	—
2022	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	22	82	363	85	45	4	100%	3.7	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	1.6%	4.50	4.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	22	82	363	85	45	4	100%	3.7	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	1.1%	4.50	3.31	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	506	149	55	14	100%	5.0	22.8%	12.4%	10.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.73	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	506	149	55	14	100%	5.0	29.4%	10.9%	18.6%	2.8%	4.68	3.51	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.6%	5.36	4.70	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.6%	5.36	4.70	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.1%	3.0%	5.36	3.87	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	0	54	231	73	33	7	0%	1.4	27.2%	12.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.26	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	0	54	231	73	33	7	0%	1.4	27.2%	12.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.26	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	0	54	231	73	33	7	0%	1.4	31.6%	14.3%	17.3%	3.0%	4.64	3.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	2	2	14	59	16	8	2	100%	7.0	26.9%	13.2%	13.7%	3.1%	4.59	4.59	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	119	504	134	64	16	100%	6.0	26.6%	12.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	110	462	121	57	15	100%	6.1	26.2%	12.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	433	112	53	14	100%	6.0	25.9%	12.2%	13.7%	3.2%	4.58	4.62	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	95	402	103	50	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.3%	13.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.74	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	86	364	92	46	13	100%	6.2	25.2%	12.6%	12.6%	3.6%	4.82	4.92	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	325	81	42	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	13.0%	11.8%	3.8%	5.00	5.12	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	65	31	7	100%	5.8	26.6%	12.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	80	37	9	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.50	4.51	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	86	41	11	100%	6.1	25.9%	12.2%	13.7%	3.2%	4.54	4.58	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	85	41	11	100%	6.1	25.6%	12.3%	13.2%	3.3%	4.62	4.69	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	75	317	80	40	11	100%	6.2	25.2%	12.6%	12.6%	3.5%	4.77	4.87	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	72	38	11	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.0%	11.8%	3.7%	4.95	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	431	1821	468	228	60	100%	6.0	25.7%	12.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.33	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	217	106	28	100%	6.0	25.7%	12.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		118	74	382	1648	331	199	42	63%	3.2	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.5%	4.74	4.32	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	39	200	864	174	104	22	63%	3.2	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.5%	4.74	4.32	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 54 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.26 (+0.36)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.60%	—	×0.860	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 45 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.70 (+0.86)K% 26.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.810	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.55%	—	×1.100	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.018	×1.200	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 103 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.42 (+1.29)K% 31.8% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.81%	—	×0.770	24.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.931	×1.250	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 16 IPFIP 5.91 → 6.66 (+0.74)K% 14.5% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.49%	—	×0.810	11.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.100	14.35%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.048	×1.200	4.98%

Result: FIP 5.91 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 82 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.39 (+1.09)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.42%	—	×0.740	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.40%	—	×1.180	14.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.873	×1.300	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 30 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.65 (+1.04)K% 22.4% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.680	15.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.250	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.951	×1.400	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Red Sox 1 · 51 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.37 (+0.79)K% 18.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.32%	—	×0.680	12.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.94%	—	×1.250	7.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.69%

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Bastardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.57	26.3%	13.9%	331	-0.02	—	—	—
Lucas Sims R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP-	3.98	28.4%	11.0%	3.4%	.290	2.63	36.9%	28.1%	73	-1.35	2.35	883	78
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	74
Brandon Woodruff R 2018 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	22.0%	9.8%	2.4%	.291	2.72	29.8%	23.7%	375	-1.08	2.68	1,247	72
Cam Sanders R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	22.2%	14.8%	3.1%	.232	4.30	25.8%	9.7%	170	-0.53	3.22	519	70
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	70
Ryne Stanek R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	21.6%	12.1%	2.2%	.296	3.59	29.3%	19.0%	208	-0.43	2.96	771	70
Cody Martin R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	25	SW	4.58	19.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	4.25	19.9%	11.8%	277	-0.33	3.56	402	69
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	69
Octavio Dotel R 2000 · 4.81 FIP	26	SW	4.81	25.2%	10.3%	4.6%	.300	2.55	31.0%	22.5%	289	-2.26	2.03	946	69
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SP-	4.14	19.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.01	17.0%	6.5%	227	+0.87	4.14	536	68
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	68
Cole Sands R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP-	4.38	21.3%	8.9%	3.5%	.358	3.04	25.4%	19.1%	196	-1.34	2.28	474	68
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	68
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	68
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	68
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	68
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	68
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	67
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 3.41 FIP	24	SW	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.63	22.6%	8.7%	175	+1.22	3.41	257	67
Keyvius Sampson R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	25	SW	4.13	22.5%	10.9%	2.8%	.246	5.08	19.6%	3.2%	79	+0.95	4.10	316	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	104	26.0%	12.6%	1.28	4.65
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11