Angel Bastardo
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 139 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%22.4%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP139
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 12 | 12 | 51 | 202 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 12.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 3.71 | 3.37 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 12 | 12 | 51 | 202 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 0.5% | 3.71 | 2.61 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 10 | 6 | 30 | 147 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 60% | 3.0 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 6.67 | 3.68 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 10 | 6 | 30 | 147 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 60% | 3.0 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 0.7% | 6.67 | 2.53 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 22 | 82 | 363 | 85 | 45 | 4 | 100% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 4.54 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 22 | 82 | 363 | 85 | 45 | 4 | 100% | 3.7 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 4.50 | 3.31 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 506 | 149 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 506 | 149 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 29.4% | 10.9% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 10 | 10 | 45 | 199 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 4.67 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 10 | 10 | 45 | 199 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.6% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 3.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 21 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 133 | 0 | 139 | 588 | 132 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 171 | 728 | 173 | 92 | 22 | — | — | 23.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.79 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 14 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 135 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.67 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 136 | 65 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 139 | 586 | 134 | 63 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 135 | 569 | 129 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.71 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 129 | 543 | 122 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 95 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 106 | 50 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 110 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 108 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 84 | 518 | 2186 | 496 | 240 | 70 | 86% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.33 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 93 | 27 | 86% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 74 | 359 | 1557 | 305 | 190 | 41 | 75% | 3.6 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 41 | 200 | 867 | 170 | 106 | 23 | 75% | 3.6 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Angel Bastardo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.64 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 421 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.78 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.4% | .327 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.67 | 2.69 | 315 | 77 |
| Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.99 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 186 | -0.54 | 3.33 | 475 | 76 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 76 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 76 |
| José Ureña R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.41 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 428 | +0.09 | 3.87 | 1,251 | 76 |
| Shaun Anderson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .317 | 4.67 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 150 | +0.43 | 3.72 | 862 | 76 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 76 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 75 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .338 | 4.74 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 209 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 340 | 75 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .337 | 6.11 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +2.41 | 3.70 | 418 | 75 |
| Cody Martin R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.78 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 3.9% | .296 | 4.31 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 277 | -0.47 | 3.66 | 402 | 74 |
| Chance Adams R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.70 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.79 | 602 | 74 |
| Peter Solomon R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .283 | 5.61 | 17.7% | 5.7% | 286 | +0.74 | 2.87 | 516 | 74 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 74 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.81 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 324 | -0.69 | 3.46 | 572 | 73 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 73 |
| Bubba Derby R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .322 | 5.57 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 163 | +1.78 | 3.74 | 550 | 73 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 137 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 1.22 | 4.71 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |