Angel Bastardo — OGILVIE

Angel Bastardo P Worcester Red Sox

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5550

CTRL—40

CMD3045

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 1	12	12	51	202	37	12	1	100%	4.2	12.5%	7.4%	5.0%	0.7%	3.71	3.37	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 1	12	12	51	202	37	12	1	100%	4.2	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	0.5%	3.71	2.61	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	6	30	147	33	12	1	60%	3.0	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.0%	6.67	3.65	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	10	6	30	147	33	12	1	60%	3.0	22.4%	8.2%	14.3%	0.7%	6.67	2.53	—
2022	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	22	82	363	85	45	4	100%	3.7	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	1.6%	4.50	4.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	22	82	363	85	45	4	100%	3.7	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	1.1%	4.50	3.31	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	506	149	55	14	100%	5.0	22.8%	12.4%	10.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.73	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	506	149	55	14	100%	5.0	22.8%	12.4%	10.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.73	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	506	149	55	14	100%	5.0	29.4%	10.9%	18.6%	2.8%	4.68	3.51	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.6%	5.36	4.70	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.6%	5.36	4.70	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	10	10	45	199	53	21	6	100%	4.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.1%	3.0%	5.36	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	39	0	53	228	73	32	7	0%	1.4	26.6%	12.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.31	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	39	0	53	228	73	32	7	0%	1.4	26.6%	12.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	BOS	39	0	53	228	73	32	7	0%	1.4	32.0%	14.0%	18.0%	3.1%	4.72	3.86	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	59	253	79	35	8	—	—	31.1%	13.9%	17.2%	3.1%	4.74	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	134	0	141	595	135	68	18	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.3%	11.3%	3.1%	4.74	4.69	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	134	0	141	595	136	66	18	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.63	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	132	0	139	586	134	64	18	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	128	0	135	569	129	63	18	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	122	0	129	543	122	61	18	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.79	4.86	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	115	0	121	510	113	59	18	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.04	-0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	107	0	113	476	103	57	18	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.8%	5.12	5.24	-0.9
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	65	0	68	287	65	33	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.3%	11.3%	3.0%	4.70	4.65	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	93	0	98	414	95	46	12	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.59	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	105	0	110	464	106	51	14	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.8%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	110	0	115	486	110	54	15	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	109	0	114	481	108	54	16	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	104	0	109	460	102	53	16	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.99	-0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	99	0	104	439	95	52	16	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.7%	5.07	5.19	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		683	0	717	3029	679	342	98	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.75	4.42	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	95	27	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.75	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		117	74	381	1645	329	198	42	63%	3.3	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.5%	4.75	4.33	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	39	200	864	173	104	22	63%	3.3	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.5%	4.75	4.33	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Bastardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.4%	12.4%	3.1%	—	4.66	22.8%	11.7%	421	-0.21	—	—	—
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	79
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	77
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	77
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	76
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.88	21.5%	9.9%	274	-0.11	4.06	464	76
Cody Martin R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	25	SW	4.58	19.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	4.25	19.9%	11.8%	277	-0.33	3.56	402	76
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	23.3%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.74	22.5%	9.1%	172	-0.90	3.29	461	76
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	74
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	74
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	73
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	73
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	72
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	72
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	72
Logan Verrett R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SW	3.81	18.5%	6.7%	2.6%	.277	5.15	15.8%	6.3%	164	+1.34	3.81	550	72
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	72
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	72
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	132	22.5%	11.4%	1.27	4.80
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32