Lucas Sims

P Charlotte Knights

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 213 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	60	51	4.26	4.99	23.5%	14.5%	-0.3	K 22.8% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.04
2025	31	MIX2 levels	52	46	7.77	5.39	21.5%	18.4%	-0.5	K 19.3% · BB 17.2% · FIP 5.25
2026	32	MIX2 levels	23	23	6.56	4.73	28.3%	18.6%	-0.0	K 28.2% · BB 18.8% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	33	MLBCWS	167	175	5.24	5.38	22.8%	16.7%	-1.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBCWS	106	111	5.50	5.68	21.9%	17.2%	-1.3
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBCWS	76	80	5.81	6.02	21.0%	17.7%	-1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -4.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSteve Delabar (age 33) · Jason Bulger (age 31) · Jhan Mariñez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.24

FIP5.38

K%22.8%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	93	404	100	54	3	100%	4.6	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	1.0%	4.37	3.98	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	93	404	100	54	3	100%	4.6	24.8%	13.4%	11.4%	0.7%	4.37	3.11	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	141	632	159	91	15	96%	5.0	21.0%	15.5%	5.5%	2.4%	4.40	4.60	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	141	632	159	91	15	96%	5.0	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	2.4%	4.40	4.16	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	29	173	724	176	56	28	85%	5.1	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	4.2%	4.37	4.55	+1.7
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	29	173	724	176	56	28	85%	5.1	24.3%	7.7%	16.6%	3.9%	4.37	4.14	+2.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	117	500	131	51	14	66%	4.0	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.0%	3.69	4.11	+1.8
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	19	117	500	131	51	14	66%	4.0	26.2%	10.2%	16.0%	2.8%	3.69	3.72	+2.4
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	20	122	517	159	55	17	50%	3.0	28.4%	11.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.57	3.98	+2.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	20	122	517	159	55	17	50%	3.0	30.8%	10.6%	20.1%	3.3%	4.57	3.66	+2.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	20	0	26	103	34	11	3	0%	1.3	33.0%	10.7%	22.3%	2.7%	2.45	3.15	+0.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	20	0	26	103	34	11	3	0%	1.3	33.0%	10.7%	22.3%	2.9%	2.45	3.26	+0.4
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	52	217	80	18	8	4%	1.0	39.0%	7.7%	31.3%	2.8%	4.35	2.35	+1.4
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	2	52	217	80	18	8	4%	1.0	36.9%	8.3%	28.6%	3.7%	4.35	3.06	+0.9
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	2	11	46	10	7	1	20%	1.1	21.7%	15.2%	6.5%	2.2%	6.75	4.39	+0.0
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	2	11	46	10	7	1	20%	1.1	21.7%	15.2%	6.5%	2.2%	6.75	4.41	+0.0
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	64	270	75	40	5	0%	0.9	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	1.8%	2.95	3.59	+0.7
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	64	270	75	40	5	0%	0.9	27.8%	14.8%	13.0%	1.9%	2.95	3.65	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	51	221	52	32	8	0%	0.8	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	3.8%	4.26	5.04	-0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	51	221	52	32	8	0%	0.8	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	3.8%	4.26	5.04	-0.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	51	221	52	32	8	0%	0.8	23.5%	14.5%	9.0%	3.6%	4.26	4.99	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	46	228	49	42	6	0%	0.9	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	2.9%	7.77	5.25	-0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	46	228	49	42	6	0%	0.9	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	2.9%	7.77	5.25	-0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	46	228	49	42	6	0%	0.9	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	2.6%	7.77	5.39	-0.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	23	113	32	21	3	0%	1.0	28.2%	18.8%	9.4%	3.3%	6.56	4.90	-0.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	23	113	32	21	3	0%	1.0	28.2%	18.8%	9.4%	3.3%	6.56	4.90	-0.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	23	113	32	21	3	0%	1.0	28.3%	18.6%	9.7%	2.7%	6.56	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			272	14	328	1429	376	173	45	5%	1.2	26.3%	12.1%	14.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.17	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CWS	167	0	175	739	169	123	23	0%	1.0	22.8%	16.7%	6.2%	3.1%	5.24	5.38	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CWS	111	0	117	494	108	85	17	0%	1.1	21.9%	17.2%	4.8%	3.4%	5.50	5.68	-1.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	CWS	84	0	88	371	78	66	14	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.7%	3.2%	3.8%	5.81	6.02	-1.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	CWS	106	0	111	469	103	81	16	0%	1.0	21.9%	17.2%	4.8%	3.4%	5.50	5.68	-1.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	CWS	76	0	80	338	71	60	13	0%	1.1	21.0%	17.7%	3.2%	3.8%	5.81	6.02	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		454	14	519	2236	550	313	74	3%	1.1	24.6%	14.0%	10.6%	3.3%	5.14	4.61	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	5	200	861	212	121	28	3%	1.1	24.6%	14.0%	10.6%	3.3%	5.14	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		438	119	918	3975	966	494	116	27%	2.1	24.3%	12.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.41	4.22	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	26	200	866	210	108	25	27%	2.1	24.3%	12.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.41	4.22	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 13 IPFIP 4.61 → 4.90 (+0.29)K% 32.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.84%	—	×0.860	28.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.90%	—	×0.900	18.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.61 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 34 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.10 (+0.27)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.95%	—	×0.900	16.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.947	×1.100	2.98%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 5 IPFIP 8.28 → 8.61 (+0.33)K% 18.2% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.880	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.050	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	9.09%	÷1.088	×1.100	9.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 8.28 → 8.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 79 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.95 (+0.59)K% 30.0% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.880	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.050	11.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.957	×1.100	3.04%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 101 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.90 (+0.50)K% 27.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.19%	—	×0.880	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.050	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.988	×1.100	2.90%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAGwinnett Braves · 115 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.52 (+0.63)K% 28.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.14%	—	×0.880	24.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.46%	—	×1.050	7.84%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷0.972	×1.100	4.59%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMississippi Braves · 91 IPFIP 3.09 → 3.72 (+0.63)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.810	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.81%	—	×1.100	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷1.084	×1.200	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.09 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 50 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.01 (+0.26)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.880	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.35%	—	×1.050	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.98%	÷1.132	×1.100	4.84%

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Sims (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.83	21.5%	4.1%	205	+0.45	—	—	—
Steve Delabar R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	33	SU	4.62	20.4%	15.6%	2.3%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	229	68
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	64
Jhan Mariñez R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	17.4%	11.4%	4.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	63
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	62
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	62
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	62
JC Ramírez R 2022 · 6.17 FIP	33	SU	6.17	15.7%	14.0%	4.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	61
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	61
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	61
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	59
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	58
Tony Fiore R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	31	SU	5.17	14.3%	12.4%	3.1%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	142	58
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	57
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	57
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	57
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	56
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	287	56
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	56
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	246	56
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	79	24.1%	15.0%	1.26	5.17
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*