Lucas Sims
P
Chicago White Sox
+0.0
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 213 lbs
MLB
ERA5.11
FIP5.17
xFIP4.92
SIERA4.64
K%22.1%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%7.3%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5555
CU (7%)
FB-0.8 (46%)
SL-0.9 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 20 | 20 | 93 | 404 | 100 | 54 | 3 | 19.5% | 15.4% | 1.1% | 4.37 | 3.99 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | 28 | 27 | 141 | 632 | 159 | 91 | 15 | 21.0% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 4.40 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 34 | 29 | 173 | 724 | 176 | 56 | 28 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 4.37 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 19 | 117 | 500 | 131 | 51 | 14 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 20 | 122 | 517 | 159 | 55 | 17 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 20 | 0 | 26 | 103 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 33.0% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 2.45 | 3.11 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 52 | 2 | 52 | 217 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 39.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 2.35 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 75 | 40 | 5 | 27.9% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 2.95 | 3.54 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 52 | 32 | 8 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 3.9% | 4.26 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 52 | 0 | 46 | 228 | 49 | 42 | 6 | 19.6% | 19.0% | 3.0% | 7.77 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ATL | 26 | — | 26 | 110 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 22.7% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 34 | 148 | 34 | 22 | 3 | 22.9% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 5.13 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 21.0% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 20.2% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 422 | 119 | 903 | 3900 | 944 | 483 | 113 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.21 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 26 | 200 | 864 | 209 | 107 | 25 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Sims (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 22.7% | 14.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.34 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 91 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 75 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 73 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.59 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 241 | 72 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 299 | 72 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.65 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 249 | 71 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 71 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.96 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 3.0% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 269 | 71 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 71 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.90 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 254 | 70 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2024 · 5.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.48 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 150 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 69 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 69 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.53 | 11.8% | 14.0% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 146 | 68 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 68 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 68 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.