Lucas Sims
P
Chicago White Sox
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 213 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION33 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.92
FIP5.18
xFIP4.92
SIERA4.64
K%22.2%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%7.5%
IP34
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
CU (7%)
FB-0.8 (46%)
SL-0.9 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 20 | 20 | 93 | 404 | 100 | 54 | 3 | 19.5% | 15.4% | 1.2% | 4.37 | 4.05 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | 28 | 27 | 141 | 632 | 159 | 91 | 15 | 21.0% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 34 | 29 | 173 | 724 | 176 | 56 | 28 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 4.37 | 4.60 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 19 | 117 | 500 | 131 | 51 | 14 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 3.69 | 4.14 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 20 | 122 | 517 | 159 | 55 | 17 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 20 | 0 | 26 | 103 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 33.0% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 2.45 | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 52 | 2 | 52 | 217 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 39.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 2.38 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21.7% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 6.75 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 75 | 40 | 5 | 27.9% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 52 | 32 | 8 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.26 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 52 | 0 | 46 | 228 | 49 | 42 | 6 | 19.6% | 19.0% | 3.0% | 7.77 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 17 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 24 | 16 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.74 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CWS | 24 | — | 24 | 99 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 22.2% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 42 | 187 | 46 | 31 | 4 | 24.6% | 16.4% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 2.86 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 21.3% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 20.4% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 432 | 119 | 914 | 3950 | 959 | 493 | 114 | 24.3% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.22 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 26 | 200 | 865 | 210 | 108 | 25 | 24.3% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Sims (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 22.2% | 14.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.57 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 59 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 77 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 70 |
| AJ Ramos R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 3.4% | .292 | 4.88 | 27.3% | 16.6% | 53 | -0.15 | 2.55 | 266 | 67 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 67 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 66 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.92 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 269 | 66 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 66 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 66 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 66 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 66 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.76 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 299 | 65 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 65 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 65 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 65 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.49 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 4.9% | .273 | 2.50 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 112 | -2.99 | 2.40 | 617 | 64 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 64 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 64 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.