Abdiel Medina
P
ACL Mariners
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 15 | 6 | 49 | 214 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 40% | 3.2 | 16.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 4.25 | 3.63 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 15 | 6 | 49 | 214 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 40% | 3.2 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 16.4% | 0.9% | 4.25 | 2.52 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 3 | 38 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 30% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.76 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 3 | 38 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 30% | 3.8 | 24.7% | 4.7% | 20.0% | 1.3% | 3.76 | 2.40 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 11 | 7 | 50 | 225 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 64% | 4.5 | 13.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.80 | 5.56 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 11 | 7 | 50 | 225 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 64% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.80 | 4.31 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 4 | 43 | 192 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 40% | 4.3 | 10.6% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 5.15 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 4 | 43 | 192 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 40% | 4.3 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.95 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 11 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 20.5% | -9.3% | 9.5% | 13.91 | 9.96 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 11 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 13.91 | 7.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 20 | 191 | 842 | 117 | 82 | 28 | 35% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 21 | 200 | 882 | 122 | 86 | 29 | 35% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abdiel Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 20 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 79 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 78 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 76 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 76 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 75 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 75 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 74 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 74 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 74 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 73 |
| Connor Schultz R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 73 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 21.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .268 | 4.72 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.67 | 213 | 73 |
| Blair Henley R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 73 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 73 |
| Luis Contreras R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.56 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.8% | 14.4% | 42 | -0.44 | 3.12 | 258 | 73 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 72 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 72 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 71 |