Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 4 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 3.7 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 1.84 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 4 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 3.7 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 1.84 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 26 | 24 | 119 | 523 | 108 | 49 | 16 | 92% | 4.6 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.92 | 5.46 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 26 | 24 | 119 | 523 | 108 | 49 | 16 | 92% | 4.6 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 31 | 145 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 27% | 2.0 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 6.16 | 5.45 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 31 | 145 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 27% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 5.5% | 6.16 | 5.55 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.69 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 24 | 0 | 31 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.39 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 61 | 272 | 59 | 25 | 10 | — | — | 21.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.42 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 83 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 28 | 197 | 876 | 153 | 91 | 39 | 39% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.06 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 28 | 200 | 888 | 155 | 92 | 39 | 39% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.06 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Stanley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.4% | — | 4.80 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 29 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 81 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 78 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 76 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 74 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 74 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 74 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 74 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 73 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 73 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 72 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 72 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 72 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 1.32 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |