Ronny Henriquez — OGILVIE

Ronny Henriquez P Miami Marlins

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2027

ERA3.31

FIP3.89

xFIP3.39

SIERA2.84

K%27.1%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%18.7%

IP55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p9036.0%

p9032.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

SL+12.7 (52%)

SI (2%)

FB-1.3 (32%)

CH-1.7 (17%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 2	11	11	58	219	79	8	2	24.5%	4.6%	1.3%	1.55	2.31	+1.7
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	21	19	82	357	99	27	6	20.5%	8.9%	1.8%	4.50	3.49	+1.5
2021	21	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	21	16	94	387	105	25	17	21.7%	7.2%	4.8%	4.71	4.83	+0.4
2022	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	27	14	107	462	115	36	20	22.1%	8.1%	5.2%	5.30	5.10	+0.2
2023	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	39	0	61	280	53	39	6	16.5%	14.4%	2.5%	5.64	4.90	+0.0
2024	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	50	4	74	319	74	21	11	21.0%	6.8%	3.6%	3.39	4.18	+0.8
2025	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	69	0	73	303	98	25	8	32.3%	8.3%	2.7%	2.22	2.92	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	MIA	16	—	16	70	20	6	2	28.6%	8.4%	3.2%	3.24	3.90	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	MIA	55	—	55	231	66	20	7	28.6%	8.5%	3.2%	3.64	3.91	+0.6
2028	28	MLB	MIA	54	—	54	228	65	19	7	28.5%	8.5%	3.3%	3.82	3.93	+0.6
2029	29	MLB	MIA	53	—	53	223	62	19	7	28.1%	8.6%	3.3%	3.93	4.01	+0.6
2030	30	MLB	MIA	51	—	51	216	59	19	7	27.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.03	4.10	+0.5
2031	31	MLB	MIA	49	—	49	208	56	18	7	26.9%	8.8%	3.4%	4.13	4.20	+0.4
2032	32	MLB	MIA	47	—	47	200	53	18	7	26.3%	9.0%	3.5%	4.24	4.32	+0.3
2033	33	MLB	MIA	45	—	45	191	49	17	7	25.7%	9.2%	3.6%	4.36	4.45	+0.3
2034	34	MLB	MIA	43	—	43	181	45	17	7	24.9%	9.3%	3.7%	4.50	4.59	+0.2
2035	35	MLB	MIA	40	—	40	171	41	16	6	24.2%	9.6%	3.8%	4.64	4.74	+0.1
2036	36	MLB	MIA	38	—	38	160	37	16	6	23.4%	9.8%	3.9%	4.80	4.90	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			238	64	549	2327	524	195	79	22.5%	8.4%	3.4%	4.05	4.11	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—			87	23	200	848	191	71	29	22.5%	8.4%	3.4%	4.05	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ronny Henriquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	28.6%	8.4%	3.2%	—	3.95	28.4%	19.9%	161	+0.05	—	—	—
Luke Bard R 2026 · 2.87 FIP	26	SW	2.87	28.7%	8.0%	2.1%	.362	4.58	21.8%	13.9%	128	+1.71	2.87	388	75
Jaden Hill R 2025 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	75
Gerardo Reyes R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	29.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.310	4.49	24.7%	9.0%	46	+0.43	3.15	371	73
Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 2.61 FIP	26	SW	2.61	29.1%	9.1%	1.5%	.313	3.79	21.4%	13.0%	193	+1.18	2.48	507	73
Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	72
Nick Goody R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	26	SW	3.28	32.6%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	5.48	26.3%	14.9%	88	+2.20	2.37	305	72
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	26	SW	3.58	27.2%	8.5%	3.1%	.243	3.61	25.3%	16.4%	38	+0.03	2.27	183	72
AJ Ramos R 2028 · 2.90 FIP	28	SW	2.90	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.48	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.58	2.55	266	72
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	26	SW	2.93	30.7%	10.9%	1.9%	.299	3.32	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.39	1.77	526	72
Chad Sobotka R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	29.5%	10.4%	4.2%	.344	4.41	15.2%	0.8%	39	+0.16	2.92	278	72
Trevor Gott R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	26	SW	2.99	26.6%	7.9%	2.1%	.272	4.41	24.1%	15.6%	99	+1.42	2.70	421	71
Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.83	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.66	2.83	239	71
Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	26.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.38	2.67	178	71
Peter Strzelecki R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.3%	3.2%	.325	3.11	26.5%	16.8%	170	-0.59	2.87	328	70
Craig Kimbrel R 2027 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	70
Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	37.1%	9.6%	4.1%	.271	6.03	20.0%	11.7%	15	+2.60	3.43	180	70
Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	26	SW	3.09	23.1%	6.6%	2.0%	.353	3.00	25.6%	19.7%	255	-0.09	2.48	642	70
Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	26	SW	3.69	24.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.291	3.65	25.1%	14.5%	132	-0.04	3.19	446	69
Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	26	SW	3.72	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.80	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	544	69
Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	69

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 1.669 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.8M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$11M	+$3M