Justin Sterner
P
Athletics
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 85
ERA3.88
FIP4.11
K%24.8%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%18.1%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p7729.6%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
FB (39%)
SL (30%)
CT-2.3 (30%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 78 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 4.9% | 3.45 | 4.96 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 78 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 32.5% | 8.8% | 23.8% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 4.5% | 3.94 | 4.54 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.8% | 10.4% | 20.4% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 3.66 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 71 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 5.2% | 5.27 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 71 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.5% | 9.0% | 21.5% | 5.6% | 5.27 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 51 | 210 | 64 | 17 | 7 | 3% | 1.4 | 27.6% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 3.6% | 3.20 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 51 | 210 | 64 | 17 | 7 | 3% | 1.4 | 30.5% | 8.1% | 22.4% | 3.3% | 3.20 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 68 | 281 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 68 | 281 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 7.5% | 17.8% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Athletics | 45 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 5.6% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 4.89 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 0 | 27 | 116 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 18.1% | 4.1% | 3.88 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 18.1% | 4.1% | 3.88 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 70 | 293 | 69 | 18 | 15 | — | — | 23.5% | 6.1% | 17.4% | 5.0% | 4.49 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 70 | 295 | 69 | 18 | 15 | — | — | 23.3% | 6.0% | 17.3% | 5.0% | 4.49 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 68 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 4.48 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 62 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 4.72 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 55 | 19 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 4.8% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 58 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 4.72 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 4.8% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 298 | 1 | 313 | 1314 | 318 | 91 | 58 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 1 | 200 | 839 | 203 | 58 | 37 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 247 | 2 | 321 | 1352 | 346 | 115 | 62 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 3.98 | 4.53 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 1 | 200 | 842 | 215 | 72 | 39 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 3.98 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Sterner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 26.8% | 7.2% | 3.6% | — | 4.88 | 23.8% | 16.5% | 183 | +0.80 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 86 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 83 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.53 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .304 | 3.99 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 114 | -0.54 | 2.90 | 484 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 80 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.23 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .283 | 3.66 | 20.5% | 12.4% | 148 | +0.43 | 2.72 | 530 | 80 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.02 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.45 | 3.57 | 224 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 78 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2024 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 78 |
| Matt Magill R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 259 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 77 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 26.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .280 | 3.18 | 26.6% | 19.8% | 132 | -0.46 | 2.56 | 364 | 77 |
| Rob Wooten R 2027 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | .299 | 3.74 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.52 | 3.19 | 191 | 77 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 77 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 77 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 1.65 | 4.47 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |