Justin Sterner — OGILVIE

Justin Sterner P Athletics

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.76

FIP3.98

K%24.3%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%17.5%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7929.9%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB (40%)

SL (30%)

CT-2.3 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	57	240	78	21	7	0%	1.8	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	4.7%	3.45	4.83	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	57	240	78	21	7	0%	1.8	32.5%	8.8%	23.8%	2.9%	3.45	3.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	211	65	22	7	0%	1.3	26.5%	9.6%	16.9%	4.3%	3.94	4.46	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	211	65	22	7	0%	1.3	30.8%	10.4%	20.4%	3.3%	3.94	3.66	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	233	71	21	13	0%	1.6	25.0%	8.3%	16.8%	5.7%	5.27	5.19	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	233	71	21	13	0%	1.6	25.0%	8.3%	16.8%	5.7%	5.27	5.19	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	55	233	71	21	13	0%	1.6	30.5%	9.0%	21.5%	5.6%	5.27	4.75	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	51	210	64	17	7	3%	1.4	26.1%	8.0%	18.1%	3.8%	3.20	4.00	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	51	210	64	17	7	3%	1.4	26.1%	8.0%	18.1%	3.8%	3.20	4.00	+0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	51	210	64	17	7	3%	1.4	30.5%	8.1%	22.4%	3.3%	3.20	3.38	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	68	281	71	21	11	2%	1.1	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.44	3.90	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	68	281	71	21	11	2%	1.1	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.44	3.90	+0.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	1	68	281	71	21	11	2%	1.1	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.9%	3.44	4.04	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			107	1	112	469	114	31	21	1%	1.0	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	4.5%	4.27	4.34	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	46	0	43	184	40	12	11	0%	0.9	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	6.1%	6.12	5.46	-0.5
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	46	0	43	184	40	12	11	0%	0.9	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	6.1%	6.12	5.46	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	OAK	46	0	43	184	40	12	11	0%	0.9	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	6.0%	6.12	5.37	-0.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	OAK	46	0	43	184	40	12	11	0%	0.9	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	6.0%	6.12	5.37	-0.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	3.8%	3.76	3.98	—
ROS	29	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	3.8%	3.76	3.98	—
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	43	184	40	12	11	—	—	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	6.0%	6.12	5.46	-0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	43	180	40	12	11	—	—	22.2%	6.7%	15.5%	6.1%	6.12	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	66	277	67	20	12	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	4.4%	4.60	4.77	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	58	0	61	258	60	19	12	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.4%	15.8%	4.6%	4.84	5.00	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	OAK	59	0	62	262	63	19	12	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	4.4%	4.60	4.77	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	55	0	58	245	57	18	11	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.4%	15.8%	4.6%	4.84	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		222	1	232	978	234	68	44	0%	1.0	24.0%	6.9%	17.0%	4.5%	4.50	4.43	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	1	200	842	202	59	38	0%	1.0	24.0%	6.9%	17.0%	4.5%	4.50	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		248	2	321	1359	340	111	64	1%	1.3	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	4.7%	4.15	4.60	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	1	200	846	212	69	40	1%	1.3	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	4.7%	4.15	4.60	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Sterner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	26.5%	6.9%	3.6%	—	4.88	23.6%	16.4%	127	+0.81	—	—	—
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	84
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	84
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	81
Danny Farquhar R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	21.7%	7.6%	3.3%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.40	3.62	224	81
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	80
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	80
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	80
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	80
Shane Greene R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	23.3%	6.5%	4.5%	.304	3.93	23.0%	15.2%	114	-0.49	2.86	484	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	79
Daniel Hudson R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	29	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.1%	2.2%	.319	3.84	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.45	1.68	468	77
Matt Magill R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	27.9%	7.4%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	259	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	77
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	77
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	77
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	76
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	76
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	76
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	24.6%	7.1%	1.62	4.43
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63