Justin Sterner
P
Athletics
+0.5
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA3.85
FIP4.30
xFIP2.68
SIERA2.79
K%25.6%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%17.5%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL5050
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p7426.7%
xwOBA vs
p700.293
FB (40%)
SL (28%)
CT-2.3 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 32 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 78 | 21 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 3.45 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 38 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 34 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 71 | 21 | 13 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.27 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 36 | 1 | 51 | 210 | 64 | 17 | 7 | 27.6% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 3.20 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | 62 | 1 | 68 | 281 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.44 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Athletics | 9 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 10 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.66 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 52 | 15 | 7 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.62 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 57 | 249 | 62 | 19 | 8 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.79 | 3.51 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 18 | 8 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.29 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 50 | 18 | 8 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.02 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 2 | 288 | 1223 | 316 | 109 | 54 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 3.87 | 4.46 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 219 | 76 | 37 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 3.87 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Sterner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | — | 4.44 | 23.7% | 15.6% | 161 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 85 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 82 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 81 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Rob Wooten R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 80 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.45 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .304 | 3.79 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 114 | -0.66 | 2.84 | 484 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 79 |
| Tony Barnette R 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.