Nick Mears
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.6
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.24
FIP3.98
xFIP4.10
SIERA4.29
K%24.0%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%16.1%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p4020.7%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+1.8 (49%)
CH (12%)
SI (11%)
CU (10%)
SL-1.4 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 34 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 69 | 18 | 5 | 26.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.28 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47 | 0 | 42 | 189 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 1 | 32 | 137 | 36 | 20 | 2 | 22.4% | 16.8% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 41 | 1 | 44 | 199 | 63 | 33 | 2 | 28.5% | 17.5% | 1.0% | 4.91 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 54 | 0 | 58 | 256 | 75 | 23 | 7 | 29.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 5.93 | 3.06 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 66 | 0 | 60 | 235 | 47 | 13 | 7 | 20.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 52 | 220 | 53 | 19 | 5 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 3.35 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | KC | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 2 | 295 | 1266 | 321 | 142 | 31 | 25.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 3.75 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 217 | 96 | 21 | 25.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Mears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.15 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 146 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 82 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 75 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.86 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.49 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 127 | +1.63 | 2.86 | 596 | 75 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 75 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 74 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 74 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.91 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.0% | .325 | 3.57 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.66 | 2.91 | 210 | 73 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.88 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.88 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.08 | 2.88 | 249 | 73 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 73 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.28 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .376 | 5.85 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.57 | 3.28 | 162 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2020
Service 4.128 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.5M | ||