Nick Mears — OGILVIE

Nick Mears P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.91

FIP3.80

K%22.8%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1018.7%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

FB+1.8 (49%)

CH (11%)

SI (12%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.4 (27%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	47	192	69	18	5	0%	1.4	26.9%	8.4%	18.5%	2.9%	3.28	3.46	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	47	192	69	18	5	0%	1.4	35.9%	9.4%	26.6%	2.6%	3.28	2.69	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	0	5	26	7	7	1	0%	1.2	26.9%	26.9%	0.0%	3.8%	5.40	6.35	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	0	5	26	7	7	1	0%	1.2	26.9%	26.9%	0.0%	3.8%	5.40	7.10	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	42	189	48	21	7	0%	0.9	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	3.9%	5.14	4.68	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	42	189	48	21	7	0%	0.9	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	3.7%	5.14	4.48	+0.0
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	32	137	36	20	2	3%	1.0	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.0%	4.50	4.46	+0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	32	137	36	20	2	3%	1.0	26.3%	14.6%	11.7%	1.5%	4.50	3.54	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	44	199	63	33	2	2%	1.1	27.5%	16.0%	11.5%	1.0%	4.91	3.35	+0.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	44	199	63	33	2	2%	1.1	27.5%	16.0%	11.5%	1.0%	4.91	3.35	+0.6
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	44	199	63	33	2	2%	1.1	31.7%	16.6%	15.1%	1.0%	4.91	3.08	+0.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.6%	5.93	3.19	+0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.6%	5.93	3.19	+0.9
2024	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.7%	5.93	3.27	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	3.0%	3.28	3.69	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	3.0%	3.28	3.69	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	3.0%	3.28	3.70	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			190	0	183	788	189	79	23	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.66	3.96	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	4.53	+0.0
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	4.53	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.4%	5.12	4.42	+0.0
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.4%	5.12	4.42	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB MLE	KC	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.2%	14.7%	2.9%	3.91	3.80	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	KC	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.8%	8.2%	14.7%	2.9%	3.91	3.80	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	20	88	16	10	2	—	—	18.3%	11.8%	6.5%	2.4%	5.06	4.49	+0.0
FULL	29	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	20	86	16	10	2	—	—	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	2.5%	5.06	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	58	0	61	259	59	22	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	57	242	53	21	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.55	0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	55	21	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	50	20	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		298	0	297	1269	296	121	38	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.54	3.98	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	854	199	81	26	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.54	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		298	2	307	1317	328	145	35	1%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	2.6%	4.54	3.84	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	1	200	858	214	95	23	1%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	2.6%	4.54	3.84	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Mears (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	24.8%	7.3%	2.9%	—	4.43	22.3%	13.6%	119	+0.52	—	—	—
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	87
Daniel Hudson R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	29	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.1%	2.2%	.319	3.84	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.45	1.68	468	86
Bryan Shaw R 2017 · 2.78 FIP	29	SU	2.78	23.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.307	4.46	19.6%	10.0%	127	+1.68	2.78	596	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	77
Kelvin Herrera R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	22.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	297	76
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	76
Blake Treinen R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.8%	2.0%	.332	2.94	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.21	1.53	547	76
Hunter Strickland R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	18.4%	9.5%	2.7%	.271	4.48	22.0%	13.3%	83	+0.26	2.30	523	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	75
Danny Farquhar R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	21.7%	7.6%	3.3%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.40	3.62	224	75
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	74
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	74
Joe Kelly R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	29	SU	3.35	21.8%	10.9%	1.3%	.248	3.30	25.4%	15.3%	117	-0.05	2.38	556	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	74
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	74
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	74
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	23.1%	8.2%	1.19	4.24
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63