Nick Mears
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 217 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 88
ERA3.92
FIP3.83
K%22.9%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%14.6%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p1018.7%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.382
FB+1.8 (49%)
CH (11%)
SI (12%)
CU (13%)
SL-1.4 (27%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 69 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.9% | 8.4% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.28 | 3.36 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 69 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.9% | 9.4% | 26.6% | 2.6% | 3.28 | 2.69 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 6.35 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 7.10 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 42 | 189 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 42 | 189 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.4% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 32 | 137 | 36 | 20 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 16.8% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 4.50 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 32 | 137 | 36 | 20 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.50 | 3.54 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 44 | 199 | 63 | 33 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 17.5% | 11.0% | 0.9% | 4.91 | 3.40 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 44 | 199 | 63 | 33 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 1.0% | 4.91 | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 54 | 0 | 58 | 256 | 75 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 9.0% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 5.93 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 54 | 0 | 58 | 256 | 75 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 9.0% | 20.3% | 2.7% | 5.93 | 3.27 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 60 | 235 | 47 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.8% | 5.4% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 3.28 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 60 | 235 | 47 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 21 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 5.12 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 44 | 185 | 39 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 369 | 0 | 371 | 1580 | 364 | 149 | 49 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.06 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 196 | 80 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 298 | 2 | 307 | 1317 | 330 | 148 | 35 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 3.85 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 215 | 97 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Mears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 24.8% | 7.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 172 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 81 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 74 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 73 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 73 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 73 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 73 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 73 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.02 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.45 | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 1.28 | 4.42 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |