Nick Mears

P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBMIL	54	58	5.93	3.27	29.3%	9.0%	0.9
2025	28	MIX2 levels	66	60	3.28	3.70	20.0%	5.5%	0.6	K 20.8% · BB 5.4% · FIP 3.69
2026	29	MLBKC	21	19	5.12	4.44	18.1%	12.0%	0.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	31	33	4.32	4.29	22.5%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBKC	33	35	4.44	4.52	21.8%	8.6%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	23	24	4.64	4.78	21.0%	9.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo54

K%22

xwOBA vs10

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Kiko Calero (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.32

FIP4.29

K%22.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1018.7%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	47	192	69	18	5	0%	1.4	26.9%	8.4%	18.5%	2.9%	3.28	3.46	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	47	192	69	18	5	0%	1.4	35.9%	9.4%	26.6%	2.6%	3.28	2.69	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	0	5	26	7	7	1	0%	1.2	26.9%	26.9%	0.0%	3.8%	5.40	6.35	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	0	5	26	7	7	1	0%	1.2	26.9%	26.9%	0.0%	3.8%	5.40	7.10	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	42	189	48	21	7	0%	0.9	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	3.9%	5.14	4.68	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	42	189	48	21	7	0%	0.9	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	3.7%	5.14	4.48	+0.0
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	32	137	36	20	2	3%	1.0	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.0%	4.50	4.46	+0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	32	137	36	20	2	3%	1.0	26.3%	14.6%	11.7%	1.5%	4.50	3.54	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	44	199	63	33	2	2%	1.1	28.1%	16.0%	12.1%	1.0%	4.91	3.30	+0.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	44	199	63	33	2	2%	1.1	31.7%	16.6%	15.1%	1.0%	4.91	3.08	+0.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.6%	5.93	3.19	+0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.6%	5.93	3.19	+0.9
2024	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	54	0	58	256	75	23	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	9.0%	20.3%	2.7%	5.93	3.27	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	3.0%	3.28	3.69	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	3.0%	3.28	3.69	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	60	235	47	13	7	0%	0.9	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	3.0%	3.28	3.70	+0.6
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	21	0	19	83	15	10	2	0%	0.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	2.4%	5.12	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			190	0	183	788	189	79	23	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.66	3.96	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	31	0	33	139	31	11	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.32	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	35	0	37	157	34	13	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.3%	4.44	4.52	+0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	24	0	25	107	22	10	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.5%	4.64	4.78	-0.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	KC	16	0	17	71	14	7	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.8%	4.89	5.06	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	32	13	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.3%	4.44	4.52	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	23	0	24	101	21	9	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.5%	4.64	4.78	-0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	KC	15	0	16	68	14	6	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.8%	4.89	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	0	259	1106	256	107	34	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.06	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	855	198	83	26	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		298	2	307	1317	329	145	35	1%	1.0	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.6%	4.54	3.83	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	1	200	858	214	95	23	1%	1.0	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.6%	4.54	3.83	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 24 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.01 (+0.22)K% 36.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.45%	—	×0.860	31.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.76%	—	×0.900	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.062	×1.100	0.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 25 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.46 (+0.45)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.47%	—	×0.880	22.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.04%	—	×1.050	16.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.013	×1.100	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ABradenton Marauders · 5 IPFIP 1.63 → 2.50 (+0.87)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.740	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 1.63 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 19 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.64 (+0.38)K% 30.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.880	26.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.050	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.096	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 30 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.46 (+1.04)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.96%	—	×0.770	26.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.150	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.069	×1.250	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 12 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.87 (+1.94)K% 41.3% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.30%	—	×0.740	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.22%	—	×1.180	17.96%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.009	×1.300	5.60%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAltoona Curve · 5 IPFIP 1.63 → 2.23 (+0.60)K% 30.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.810	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.783	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 1.63 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Mears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	22.5%	8.2%	3.0%	—	4.72	21.2%	12.3%	79	+0.43	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	76
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	74
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	74
Yennier Cano R 2024 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.1%	9.2%	2.4%	.310	3.30	21.6%	13.7%	108	-0.10	2.43	381	71
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	71
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.41	24.1%	16.8%	99	-0.55	2.08	360	71
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	71
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2001 · 3.20 FIP	30	SU	3.20	22.0%	8.7%	1.6%	.267	3.95	18.5%	11.1%	181	+0.75	2.94	381	70
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	70
Matt Lindstrom R 2010 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	17.6%	7.8%	2.1%	.356	2.94	17.8%	11.4%	162	-0.81	2.40	443	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	69
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	69
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	69
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	69
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	69
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	69
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	69
Jeff Fulchino R 2010 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.319	4.44	20.4%	9.3%	35	+0.14	3.36	178	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	43	23.1%	9.8%	1.19	4.60
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*