Ethan Hankins prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ethan Hankins P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 2	2	2	3	14	6	0	0	100%	1.5	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	6.00	-0.52	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 2	2	2	3	14	6	0	0	100%	1.5	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	6.00	-0.90	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	5	5	21	94	28	12	3	100%	4.3	22.0%	15.1%	7.0%	4.2%	4.64	5.45	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	5	5	21	94	28	12	3	100%	4.3	29.8%	12.8%	17.0%	3.2%	4.64	3.99	—
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	15	15	46	201	50	26	3	100%	3.1	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	1.8%	4.70	4.33	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	15	15	46	201	50	26	3	100%	3.1	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	1.8%	4.70	4.33	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	15	15	46	201	50	26	3	100%	3.1	24.9%	12.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.70	3.47	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	1	1	2	9	3	2	0	100%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	1	1	2	9	3	2	0	100%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	1	1	2	9	3	2	0	100%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	11.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	4	4	27	114	25	13	3	100%	6.8	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.70	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	43	10	5	1	100%	5.1	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	99	20	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		24	24	73	321	69	46	7	100%	3.0	21.6%	14.3%	7.2%	2.3%	4.56	4.38	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	66	200	879	190	126	20	100%	3.0	21.6%	14.3%	7.2%	2.3%	4.56	4.38	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Hankins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.2%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.70	22.3%	10.9%	27	+0.00	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	76
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	71
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	70
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.03	18.0%	7.4%	189	-0.29	4.48	340	70
Jimmy Lambert R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	25.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.276	5.13	20.8%	10.0%	114	+0.43	3.43	526	68
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	68
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	68
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	68
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	68
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	68
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	418	68
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	67
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	67
Dane Acker R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.3%	14.1%	2.7%	.229	4.39	19.5%	8.5%	164	-0.16	4.29	257	67
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	67
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	67
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.63	13.2%	-1.2%	29	+3.67	4.18	347	67
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	22.2%	11.5%	1.16	4.69
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68