Gabriel Arias — OGILVIE

Gabriel AriasSS Cleveland Guardians

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 353 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9186vR 73

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .280 / .420

PA353

HR15

SB7

K%34

BB%6

BABIP306

ISO193

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

1018.7%

xwOBA

310.287

POWER55

Barrel%

6610.6

Avg EV

6890.3

Bat Spd

9076.3

EYE30

Chase%

2436.7%

SPEED50

Sprint

3226.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 657 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

200

457

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

292

277

◀L

ISO

184

129

◀◀L

BABIP

332

315

◀L

36.5%

33.3%

▶R

BB%

4.5%

5.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+1.7	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$10M		$16M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	3 teams	—	346	328	64	7	3	0	11	144	4	6	6	195	230	235	465	40	346	42	3	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK	3 teams	—	346	322	86	13	4	5	17	100	4	6	6	267	312	379	691	112	372	29	5	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	A	2 teams	—	570	529	99	21	3	4	32	230	1	5	3	187	235	261	496	74	319	40	6	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	A	2 teams	—	570	514	124	29	3	6	47	164	1	5	3	241	306	344	650	103	340	29	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	511	485	119	17	3	18	17	176	4	8	4	245	277	404	681	159	342	34	3	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	511	477	144	21	4	17	25	128	4	8	4	302	342	470	811	168	378	25	5	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	483	448	124	27	4	10	27	131	5	5	1	277	325	422	747	145	368	27	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	483	436	124	29	3	13	39	110	5	5	1	284	350	454	804	170	351	23	8	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	—	507	455	102	11	1	15	38	145	9	8	2	224	297	352	648	127	291	29	7	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	—	507	452	102	15	1	15	41	129	9	8	2	226	303	363	666	137	279	25	8	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	463	420	88	20	0	13	38	152	3	5	6	210	280	350	630	140	293	33	8	279	72	-15	-1	+4	+5	+13	0.6
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	463	427	90	24	0	10	31	139	3	5	6	211	269	337	606	126	287	30	7	272	67	-17	-1	+4	+5	+13	0.3
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	457	436	110	23	9	10	14	145	6	18	3	252	285	415	700	163	355	32	3	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	457	426	118	28	6	15	24	115	6	18	3	277	325	477	801	200	347	25	5	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	3 teams	—	667	611	135	34	3	16	40	227	9	15	7	221	279	365	644	144	318	34	6	281	73	-20	+0	+5	+7	+19	1.1
2025	25	MLB	3 teams	—	667	601	143	32	3	21	50	214	9	15	7	238	306	406	712	168	328	32	7	315	99	-1	+0	+5	+7	+19	3.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	CLE	—	115	108	27	2	0	8	6	44	1	3	0	250	296	491	786	241	339	38	5	325	107	+1	+1	+2	+1	+3	0.8
YTD	26	MLB	CLE	—	115	107	27	2	0	8	7	43	1	3	0	252	304	495	800	243	339	37	6	350	126	+3	+1	+2	+1	+3	1.0
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	100%	353	326	74	16	1	15	20	120	4	7	1	227	280	420	700	193	308	34	6	308	94	-3	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.3
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	100%	353	326	75	16	1	15	20	120	4	7	1	230	283	423	706	193	309	34	6	300	88	-5	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.1
FULL	26	MLB	CLE	—	468	434	102	18	1	23	26	164	5	10	1	235	286	440	726	205	317	35	6	306	92	-4	+2	+2	+5	+13	1.9
TOT	26	MLB	CLE	—	468	434	101	18	1	23	26	164	5	10	1	233	284	438	722	205	313	35	6	312	97	-2	+2	+2	+5	+13	2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	CLE	92%	465	430	98	21	2	19	27	158	5	10	2	228	281	419	700	191	306	34	6	306	92	-4	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.6
2028	28	MLB	CLE	92%	459	424	97	21	2	19	27	156	5	9	2	229	283	422	705	193	306	34	6	305	92	-4	+1	-0	+5	+13	1.5
2029	29	MLB	CLE	92%	448	413	92	20	1	18	27	154	5	8	2	223	279	407	685	184	305	34	6	303	90	-5	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.3
2030	30	MLB	CLE	92%	437	404	89	20	1	17	26	151	4	7	1	220	274	401	675	181	304	35	6	301	88	-6	+1	-2	+5	+12	1.1
2031	31	MLB	CLE	92%	422	390	85	19	1	16	25	147	4	6	1	218	272	395	667	177	302	35	6	297	85	-7	+1	-2	+5	+12	0.8
2027	27	MLB	CLE	92%	428	395	90	20	2	17	25	145	5	9	2	228	282	418	700	190	307	34	6	298	87	-7	+1	+1	+5	+12	1.2
2028	28	MLB	CLE	92%	422	390	87	19	1	17	25	144	4	8	2	223	277	408	685	185	307	34	6	298	86	-7	+1	-0	+5	+12	1.1
2029	29	MLB	CLE	92%	412	380	85	19	1	16	25	141	4	8	1	224	279	405	684	182	306	34	6	296	85	-7	+1	-1	+4	+12	1.0
2030	30	MLB	CLE	92%	402	371	82	18	1	16	24	139	4	7	1	221	276	404	680	183	305	35	6	293	83	-8	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.8
2031	31	MLB	CLE	92%	388	358	78	17	1	15	23	135	4	6	1	218	273	397	669	179	302	35	6	289	80	-9	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3439	3167	701	159	11	121	211	1168	35	62	18	221	277	393	671	172	306	34	6	291	81	-73	+5	+1	+41	+97	7.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	132	30	2	23	40	221	7	12	3	220	278	392	670	172	304	34	6	291	81	-14	+1	+0	+8	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	6588	6099	1376	277	34	190	369	2236	68	117	41	226	277	376	653	150	320	34	6	286	77	-172	+7	+1	+64	+187	8.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	135	27	3	19	36	221	7	12	4	224	276	374	650	150	318	34	6	286	77	-17	+1	+0	+6	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	64	62	15	1	0	0	2	16	0	1	0	242	266	258	524	16	326	25	3	240	42	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	—	168	153	42	6	3	0	10	51	3	4	6	275	331	353	684	78	408	30	6	307	93	-1	-2	—	—	+5	0.2
2017	17	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	—	114	107	29	6	1	5	5	33	1	1	0	271	310	486	796	215	348	29	4	345	122	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	504	455	109	27	3	6	41	149	1	3	3	240	304	352	655	112	340	30	8	292	82	-10	-1	—	—	+14	0.3
2018	18	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	66	59	15	2	0	0	6	15	0	2	0	254	323	288	611	34	341	23	9	281	73	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	511	477	144	21	4	17	25	128	4	8	4	302	342	470	811	168	378	25	5	355	130	+17	+0	—	—	+14	3.2
2021	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	483	436	124	29	3	13	39	110	5	5	1	284	350	454	804	170	351	23	8	355	130	+16	+1	—	—	+14	3.1
2022	22	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	57	47	9	1	1	1	8	16	1	1	0	191	321	319	641	128	267	28	14	293	83	-1	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.1
2022	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	323	288	69	9	0	13	25	78	6	5	1	240	313	406	720	167	279	24	8	319	102	+1	+1	—	—	+9	1.1
2022	22	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	17	13	3	1	0	0	3	7	1	1	0	231	412	308	719	77	500	41	18	348	125	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	22	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	110	104	21	4	0	1	5	28	1	1	1	202	245	269	515	67	267	25	5	236	39	-8	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	23	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	315	66	15	0	10	28	113	1	3	4	210	276	352	629	143	290	33	8	282	74	-10	-1	+4	+5	+10	0.8
2023	23	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	118	112	24	9	0	0	3	26	2	2	2	214	248	295	543	80	279	22	3	243	44	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	161	153	34	9	1	3	6	53	1	5	2	222	256	353	609	131	316	33	4	269	64	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
2024	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	178	167	53	10	5	6	8	40	3	11	0	317	360	545	904	228	388	22	4	394	160	+12	+2	—	—	+5	2.0
2024	24	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	118	106	31	9	0	6	10	22	2	2	1	292	364	547	912	255	321	19	8	398	163	+8	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2025	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	471	432	95	25	2	11	27	162	7	8	4	220	277	363	640	144	319	34	6	284	76	-13	+0	+5	+7	+13	1.3
2025	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	16	13	4	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	1	308	438	538	976	231	333	19	19	431	188	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	25	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	180	156	44	7	1	9	20	49	2	7	2	282	371	513	884	231	350	27	11	384	152	+11	+1	—	—	+5	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1034	947	204	50	4	25	69	344	10	17	10	215	276	356	632	140	307	33	7	282	74	-31	-1	+4	+16	+29	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	3,652	128	67	223	275	395	+39	+20	8.3	7.9
	/162	664	23	12	223	275	395	+7.1	+3.6	1.5	pk7: 8
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Arias (OGILVIE)	26	35	55	50	30	233/284/438	205	313	23	10	35%	6%	97	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	38→37	56→55	53→50	35	214/252/400	187	277	25	17	33%	4%	77	+0.1	219/282/362	143	318	16	10	34%	7%	79	+0.3	222/301/341	118	337	12	5	34%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	38→40	55	48→50	41	209/273/391	182	282	24	10	35%	8%	83	+0.6	194/263/337	143	269	16	13	33%	8%	65	-0.7	175/255/305	131	241	15	14	32%	9%	52	-1.0
●Tom Murphy 2017 · MLB	26	39→34	52→60	47→45	34	206/248/374	168	289	20	5	36%	5%	68	-0.5	203/251/366	163	308	19	6	39%	5%	67	-0.5	250/322/470	220	318	31	2	30%	9%	122	+1.4
✕Michael Chavis 2022 · MLB	26	43→46	54→60	45	36	227/277/398	172	303	23	7	33%	5%	87	+0.8	227/271/379	152	299	19	7	30%	5%	79	+0.3	219/271/388	169	270	22	7	27%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	38→40	52→60	49→45	43	202/278/367	165	273	21	5	33%	8%	79	+0.3	237/301/444	207	322	27	7	33%	8%	108	+2.3	221/284/435	214	280	29	2	32%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Travis Demeritte 2021 · MLB	26	43→44	53→60	48→50	41	219/286/397	178	313	21	7	36%	8%	90	+1.0	213/272/380	167	323	21	11	38%	7%	79	+0.3	194/252/361	167	290	22	12	40%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	38→43	54→55	53→50	40	206/264/388	182	272	22	17	33%	7%	79	+0.3	206/253/347	141	293	17	15	35%	5%	63	-0.9	197/240/321	124	286	16	15	36%	5%	48	-1.2
✕Wendell Rijo 2022 · AAA	26	40→41	55	48→50	39	219/270/401	182	272	25	9	30%	6%	85	+0.7	216/276/359	143	290	16	17	30%	6%	76	+0.1	215/276/365	150	278	15	27	28%	6%	76	+0.0
✕David Sheaffer 2021 · AAA	26	43	50→60	49→40	38	221/266/374	153	297	19	6	32%	5%	76	+0.0	202/248/304	102	291	9	5	32%	5%	49	-1.8	174/218/261	87	251	7	1	33%	5%	23	-1.0
✕René Pinto 2023 · MLB	26	41	52→60	46→40	34	217/254/382	165	301	21	5	35%	4%	72	-0.2	209/250/383	174	294	23	4	36%	5%	72	-0.2	195/239/378	183	269	27	2	38%	5%	63	-0.4
●Eric Haase 2019 · MLB	26	37→44	53→65	46→40	36	202/251/374	172	283	22	5	37%	6%	69	-0.4	211/264/410	199	296	28	5	38%	6%	85	+0.7	226/282/450	225	294	33	2	35%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Brendon Davis 2022 · AAA	25	42→44	54→50	50	39	222/279/402	180	297	22	10	33%	6%	89	+0.9	198/272/347	149	262	17	11	30%	8%	72	-0.2	173/258/299	126	232	14	12	30%	8%	51	-1.1
✕Dilson Herrera 2021 · MLB	27	39→49	55→50	47→50	41	213/274/394	181	276	23	11	32%	7%	85	+0.7	203/260/354	151	298	19	8	37%	6%	68	-0.5	146/205/283	138	208	20	0	41%	6%	25	-1.1
✕Luke Ritter 2023 · AAA	26	38→42	51→55	46→45	37	199/267/351	153	301	19	8	39%	7%	71	-0.3	204/290/366	162	314	21	6	39%	9%	85	+0.7	196/289/349	153	306	20	4	39%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Alex Jackson 2023 · MLB	27	40→35	51→60	50→30	39	203/279/366	163	298	19	6	37%	7%	80	+0.4	204/265/374	170	269	21	4	32%	6%	76	+0.0	186/246/363	177	237	23	1	32%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	52→50	50→55	42	223/298/390	167	299	20	13	31%	7%	94	+1.3	223/301/370	147	293	16	20	28%	8%	89	+1.0	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Donnie Murphy 2010 · MLB	27	43→40	52→65	49→45	40	223/281/393	170	300	20	9	32%	6%	87	+0.8	230/290/428	198	276	24	5	26%	6%	100	+1.7	225/289/444	220	260	27	2	25%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	40	53→55	49→50	46	212/285/390	178	284	21	12	32%	9%	88	+0.9	221/294/375	154	351	16	13	38%	9%	87	+0.8	196/277/339	144	353	15	13	45%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	35→32	51→55	50	44	187/277/350	163	274	19	12	37%	9%	75	-0.0	186/266/343	157	299	19	12	42%	8%	69	-0.4	165/248/320	156	268	21	12	44%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	37→41	53→60	46→50	42	197/281/370	173	278	22	10	36%	8%	82	+0.5	208/303/397	189	294	24	7	35%	10%	98	+1.6	199/309/387	188	287	24	5	36%	12%	95	+1.0