Gabriel Arias — OGILVIE

Gabriel AriasSS Cleveland Guardians

INJURED · Injured 10-Day (D10)

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB K +5%HR +5% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.5 · 2027

wRC+†vL 8283vR 65

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .272 / .388

PA210

HR7

K%33

BB%6

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

38↘30

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$10M		$16M	+$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	3 teams	346	328	64	7	3	0	11	141	4	6	6	.195	.230	.235	.465	.040	.340	41	3	.206	16	-33	-1	+0	+4	+10	-2.1
2018	18	A	2 teams	570	529	104	23	3	4	32	214	1	5	3	.197	.244	.274	.518	.078	.318	38	6	.231	35	-42	-0	+0	+6	+16	-2.0
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	511	485	116	16	3	16	17	175	4	8	4	.239	.271	.384	.654	.144	.336	34	3	.283	75	-15	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2021	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	483	448	117	26	3	10	27	132	5	5	1	.261	.310	.400	.710	.138	.346	27	6	.309	95	-3	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.7
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	507	457	97	11	1	15	36	149	9	8	2	.212	.283	.339	.622	.127	.276	29	7	.279	71	-16	+1	-3	+2	+14	-0.3
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	463	420	89	19	0	13	38	152	3	5	6	.212	.282	.350	.632	.138	.297	33	8	.282	74	-14	-1	+4	+5	+13	0.7
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	457	436	111	23	9	10	14	139	6	18	3	.255	.287	.417	.705	.163	.351	30	3	.303	90	-5	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.1
2025	25	MLB	3 teams	667	611	135	35	3	15	40	227	9	15	7	.221	.279	.362	.640	.141	.320	34	6	.281	73	-20	+0	+5	+7	+19	1.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	32	30	6	1	0	2	2	12	0	0	0	.200	.250	.433	.683	.233	.250	38	6	.295	84	-1	+0	+2	+0	+1	0.3
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	178	163	37	8	1	7	11	60	2	3	1	.227	.284	.417	.701	.190	.296	34	6	.294	83	-3	+0	+2	+2	+5	0.6
TOT	26	MLB	CLE	210	193	43	9	1	9	13	72	2	3	1	.223	.279	.420	.699	.197	.301	34	6	.294	83	-4	+0	+4	+2	+6	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB	CLE	463	427	93	20	2	17	28	144	5	8	2	.218	.274	.393	.667	.176	.281	31	6	.294	83	-9	+1	+5	+5	+13	1.5
2028	28	MLB	CLE	458	423	92	20	2	17	28	143	4	7	2	.217	.273	.395	.667	.177	.281	31	6	.293	82	-9	+1	+4	+5	+13	1.3
2029	29	MLB	CLE	447	412	88	19	2	16	28	141	4	6	1	.214	.270	.386	.656	.172	.280	32	6	.290	80	-10	+1	+3	+5	+13	1.2
2030	30	MLB	CLE	436	402	85	18	2	15	27	139	4	5	1	.211	.268	.378	.646	.167	.279	32	6	.287	78	-11	+1	+2	+5	+12	0.9
2031	31	MLB	CLE	421	388	81	18	2	14	26	136	4	3	0	.209	.266	.374	.639	.165	.277	32	6	.284	75	-12	+1	+1	+5	+12	0.7
2032	32	MLB	CLE	402	370	76	16	2	13	25	132	4	1	0	.205	.263	.365	.628	.159	.275	33	6	.279	71	-13	+0	+1	+4	+11	0.4
2033	33	MLB	CLE	372	343	69	15	1	12	23	125	3	0	0	.201	.257	.356	.613	.155	.273	34	6	.273	67	-14	+0	-0	+4	+11	0.0
2034	34	MLB	CLE	327	301	59	13	1	10	20	112	3	0	0	.196	.253	.346	.599	.150	.271	34	6	.266	62	-14	+0	-2	+4	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7508	6943	1513	307	40	204	431	2461	74	103	39	.218	.271	.362	.633	.144	.303	33	6	.279	71	-243	+5	+20	+74	+213	7.0
/ 162G	—			650	601	131	27	3	18	37	213	6	9	3	.218	.270	.363	.632	.145	.303	33	6	.279	71	-21	+1	+2	+6	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	64	62	15	1	0	0	2	16	0	1	0	.242	.266	.258	.524	.016	.326	25	3	.240	42	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	168	153	42	6	3	0	10	51	3	4	6	.275	.331	.353	.684	.078	.408	30	6	.307	93	-1	-2	—	—	+5	0.2
2017	17	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	114	107	29	6	1	5	5	33	1	1	0	.271	.310	.486	.796	.215	.348	29	4	.345	122	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	504	455	109	27	3	6	41	149	1	3	3	.240	.304	.352	.655	.112	.340	30	8	.292	82	-10	-1	—	—	+14	0.3
2018	18	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	66	59	15	2	0	0	6	15	0	2	0	.254	.323	.288	.611	.034	.341	23	9	.281	73	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	511	477	144	21	4	17	25	128	4	8	4	.302	.342	.470	.811	.168	.378	25	5	.355	130	+17	+0	—	—	+14	3.2
2021	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	483	436	124	29	3	13	39	110	5	5	1	.284	.350	.454	.804	.170	.351	23	8	.355	130	+16	+1	—	—	+14	3.1
2022	22	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	57	47	9	1	1	1	8	16	1	1	0	.191	.321	.319	.641	.128	.267	28	14	.293	83	-1	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.1
2022	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	323	288	69	9	0	13	25	78	6	5	1	.240	.313	.406	.720	.167	.279	24	8	.319	102	+1	+1	—	—	+9	1.1
2022	22	ROK	ACL Guardians	17	13	3	1	0	0	3	7	1	1	0	.231	.412	.308	.719	.077	.500	41	18	.348	125	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	22	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	110	104	21	4	0	1	5	28	1	1	1	.202	.245	.269	.515	.067	.267	25	5	.236	39	-8	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	23	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	345	315	66	15	0	10	28	113	1	3	4	.210	.276	.352	.629	.143	.290	33	8	.282	74	-10	-1	+4	+5	+10	0.8
2023	23	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	118	112	24	9	0	0	3	26	2	2	2	.214	.248	.295	.543	.080	.279	22	3	.243	44	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	161	153	34	9	1	3	6	53	1	5	2	.222	.256	.353	.609	.131	.316	33	4	.269	64	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
2024	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	178	167	53	10	5	6	8	40	3	11	0	.317	.360	.545	.904	.228	.388	22	4	.394	160	+12	+2	—	—	+5	2.0
2024	24	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	118	106	31	9	0	6	10	22	2	2	1	.292	.364	.547	.912	.255	.321	19	8	.398	163	+8	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2025	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	471	432	95	25	2	11	27	162	7	8	4	.220	.277	.363	.640	.144	.319	34	6	.284	76	-13	+0	+5	+7	+13	1.3
2025	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	16	13	4	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	1	.308	.438	.538	.976	.231	.333	19	19	.431	188	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	25	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	180	156	44	7	1	9	20	49	2	7	2	.282	.371	.513	.884	.231	.350	27	11	.384	152	+11	+1	—	—	+5	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1034	947	204	50	4	25	69	344	10	17	10	.215	.276	.356	.632	.140	.307	33	7	.282	74	-31	-1	+4	+16	+29	1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Arias (OGILVIE)	26	35	55	50	30	.216/.270/.391	.175	.281	8	4	31%	6%	83	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wendell Rijo 2022 · AAA	26	40→42	53→55	47→50	40	.218/.270/.388	.170	.274	22	9	30%	6%	81	+0.4	.220/.281/.366	.146	.293	16	17	29%	7%	80	+0.4	.223/.287/.368	.145	.289	15	27	27%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	36→33	52→55	50	44	.192/.280/.359	.167	.275	20	12	36%	9%	79	+0.3	.185/.266/.345	.160	.294	20	12	41%	8%	69	-0.4	.162/.246/.317	.156	.267	21	12	45%	8%	51	-1.1
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	39→37	53→55	43→40	47	.207/.296/.381	.174	.274	20	3	31%	9%	91	+1.1	.196/.287/.363	.167	.257	19	6	30%	10%	82	+0.5	.177/.274/.338	.161	.222	20	6	29%	11%	68	-0.3
✕Riley Adams 2022 · MLB	26	45→42	50	49→40	43	.217/.315/.376	.159	.331	17	5	36%	9%	98	+1.6	.220/.297/.377	.157	.309	17	4	32%	8%	90	+1.0	.219/.291/.378	.159	.300	17	2	31%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Travis Demeritte 2021 · MLB	26	41→43	53→60	48→50	41	.212/.280/.385	.172	.302	20	7	35%	8%	85	+0.7	.215/.275/.384	.169	.322	21	11	38%	7%	82	+0.5	.197/.256/.365	.168	.292	22	12	39%	7%	65	-0.3
●Tom Murphy 2016 · MLB	25	38→35	52→65	43→45	37	.203/.257/.368	.166	.281	21	5	35%	6%	71	-0.3	.211/.255/.384	.173	.307	20	5	37%	5%	74	-0.1	.244/.316/.459	.215	.308	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.2
✕Korey Lee 2023 · MLB	25	39→43	51→50	52→50	39	.208/.258/.363	.155	.277	20	10	32%	6%	69	-0.4	.210/.252/.332	.122	.291	14	12	32%	5%	58	-1.2	.210/.250/.315	.106	.286	12	12	30%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	37→40	52→55	49→45	43	.199/.274/.359	.160	.270	20	5	34%	8%	76	+0.0	.230/.296/.426	.196	.314	25	7	33%	8%	102	+1.8	.213/.276/.413	.200	.269	28	2	32%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA	26	38→42	50→55	45	40	.202/.263/.354	.152	.266	18	6	31%	6%	69	-0.4	.219/.281/.377	.158	.285	18	7	29%	7%	83	+0.6	.217/.281/.374	.157	.284	18	7	29%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	38→45	54→55	52→50	39	.206/.262/.384	.178	.276	22	16	34%	6%	77	+0.1	.207/.256/.352	.145	.293	17	15	34%	6%	66	-0.6	.197/.240/.322	.125	.287	16	15	36%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	56→60	53→50	35	.216/.255/.404	.187	.281	25	17	33%	4%	79	+0.3	.222/.283/.373	.151	.316	18	11	33%	7%	82	+0.5	.225/.303/.344	.119	.336	12	5	34%	9%	81	+0.2
✕J.P. Arencibia 2012 · MLB	26	38→47	57→60	43→30	42	.211/.264/.405	.194	.248	25	2	27%	6%	83	+0.6	.215/.260/.405	.190	.260	26	3	29%	5%	82	+0.5	.202/.243/.386	.184	.242	27	1	30%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Eric Haase 2019 · MLB	26	37→41	54→65	46→40	36	.201/.252/.380	.179	.282	23	5	37%	6%	71	-0.3	.207/.261/.403	.196	.292	27	5	38%	6%	82	+0.5	.218/.277/.437	.219	.284	32	2	35%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	44→30	46	.235/.294/.401	.166	.288	20	3	26%	8%	94	+1.3	.232/.287/.380	.148	.304	18	3	28%	7%	85	+0.7	.223/.277/.353	.130	.278	13	2	24%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Brendon Davis 2023 · AAA	26	39→44	52→50	47→50	44	.210/.278/.378	.167	.268	20	10	30%	7%	82	+0.5	.192/.269/.327	.135	.262	15	13	31%	8%	66	-0.6	.163/.251/.275	.112	.231	11	17	33%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	37→40	54→55	48→50	42	.201/.271/.377	.176	.280	22	10	36%	8%	79	+0.3	.195/.263/.334	.139	.273	16	13	33%	8%	64	-0.8	.180/.260/.311	.131	.248	15	14	32%	9%	55	-0.8
✕Ryan Cordell 2018 · AAA	26	41	50→55	51→50	40	.216/.263/.367	.151	.276	18	14	29%	5%	72	-0.2	.207/.256/.332	.125	.280	13	12	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.182/.237/.307	.125	.258	16	13	35%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Johan Mieses 2022 · AAA	27	37→32	55	48→50	41	.206/.272/.384	.178	.253	25	7	30%	6%	82	+0.5	.228/.302/.420	.192	.300	25	10	31%	8%	103	+1.9	.222/.313/.433	.210	.294	28	11	32%	10%	107	+0.8
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→43	53→50	50→55	42	.227/.302/.402	.174	.300	21	13	30%	7%	98	+1.6	.225/.303/.374	.149	.296	16	19	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.217/.302/.357	.140	.282	15	25	27%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2007 · MLB	26	42→48	50→55	49→60	37	.217/.266/.368	.151	.289	18	16	31%	5%	74	-0.1	.225/.263/.371	.146	.319	16	31	34%	3%	72	-0.2	.223/.266/.365	.142	.327	17	25	36%	3%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)