Santiago Guerrero

P DSL Giants Black

Age 20 LHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	11	11	35	3.34	4.16	24.8%	21.7%	—	K 16.9% · BB 27.1% · FIP 5.59
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	4	4	21	5.85	5.85	20.9%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	3	3	16	5.50	5.36	21.5%	16.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLuke Fox (age 22) · Jacob Heatherly (age 20) · Liam Sullivan (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%20.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	35	157	39	34	1	100%	3.2	16.9%	27.1%	-10.2%	0.9%	3.34	5.59	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	35	157	39	34	1	100%	3.2	16.9%	27.1%	-10.2%	0.9%	3.34	5.59	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	11	35	157	39	34	1	100%	3.2	24.8%	21.7%	3.2%	0.6%	3.34	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	4	4	21	89	19	18	3	100%	5.2	20.9%	20.0%	0.9%	2.9%	5.85	5.85	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	6	6	33	140	30	24	4	100%	5.5	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.50	5.36	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	3	3	16	68	15	11	2	100%	5.3	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.50	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	15	12	2	100%	5.4	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.50	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	184	147	25	100%	4.8	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.50	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		11	11	35	157	27	42	1	100%	3.2	16.9%	27.1%	-10.2%	0.9%	3.34	5.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	63	200	897	152	243	8	100%	3.2	16.9%	27.1%	-10.2%	0.9%	3.34	5.59	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	20.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.36	21.5%	4.7%	33	-0.49	—	—	—
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	85
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	84
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	78
Reinold Navarro L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	21.7%	22.6%	1.4%	.211	4.32	29.4%	5.7%	95	-0.60	3.55	119	78
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	77
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	77
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	77
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	75
José Alvarado L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	15.1%	20.1%	1.7%	.347	3.00	25.3%	11.6%	183	-2.31	1.57	524	74
Jacob Schlesener L 2017 · 5.08 FIP	20	SP	5.08	20.2%	23.2%	1.4%	.279	7.35	15.4%	-23.6%	17	+2.27	5.08	132	74
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	74
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	73
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	71
Liam Norris L 2022 · 6.64 FIP	20	SP	6.64	19.5%	22.6%	4.2%	.296	5.53	27.7%	4.1%	80	-1.11	3.98	184	71
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2024 · 6.74 FIP	19	SP	6.74	15.3%	21.7%	4.0%	.411	3.87	14.1%	0.5%	64	-2.87	3.39	148	70
Yeury Gervacio L 2019 · 4.68 FIP	20	SP	4.68	16.0%	14.4%	2.0%	.250	4.36	23.9%	12.3%	70	-0.32	4.10	184	69
Neal Cotts L 2003 · 5.79 FIP	23	SP	5.79	14.5%	24.6%	1.5%	.341	4.30	20.5%	11.4%	180	-1.49	2.08	536	69
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	69
Lewis Sifontes L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	18	SP	4.81	12.5%	17.4%	1.0%	.340	6.30	17.7%	0.1%	63	+1.49	4.81	123	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.3%	18.1%	1.11	5.64
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*