Jeans Carrizalez

C DSL Astros Orange

Age 18 L/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Astros Or…	84	.262/.429/.415	2	0	55	—	.159/.310/.232
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	194	.206/.292/.290	2	1	68	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	58	.210/.297/.302	1	0	73	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	151	.214/.301/.312	2	1	77	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA77

wRC+72

ISO67

BB%42

Chase%39

K%29

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRonny Hernandez (age 18) · Carlos Rodriguez (age 19) · Meibrys Viloria (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+68

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .289 / .288

PA76

HR1

K%29

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	65	17	4	0	2	12	22	7	0	0	262	429	415	844	154	366	26	14	390	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	69	11	2	0	1	8	27	7	0	0	159	310	232	541	72	235	32	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	69	11	2	0	1	8	27	7	0	0	159	310	232	541	72	244	32	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	65	17	4	0	2	12	22	7	0	0	262	429	415	844	154	366	26	14	390	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	69	11	2	0	1	8	27	7	0	0	159	310	232	541	72	235	32	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	84	69	11	2	0	1	8	27	7	0	0	159	310	232	541	72	235	32	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	194	172	36	7	1	2	15	56	5	1	1	206	292	290	582	84	290	29	8	269	68	-7	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	169	149	32	6	1	2	13	48	5	1	1	210	297	302	598	91	292	28	8	276	73	-5	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	312	275	59	11	2	4	25	87	9	2	1	214	301	312	613	98	293	28	8	281	77	-9	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	422	373	80	15	2	6	34	116	12	2	2	217	304	321	625	104	294	27	8	286	80	-10	-0	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	501	441	97	18	3	8	41	136	14	3	2	220	306	329	636	109	295	27	8	290	83	-10	-0	+0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	520	458	102	19	3	9	43	140	14	3	2	223	308	337	645	114	296	27	8	294	85	-9	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	458	103	19	3	10	43	140	14	3	2	224	309	339	648	116	297	27	8	295	86	-9	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	458	103	19	3	10	43	140	14	3	2	224	309	341	650	117	297	27	8	296	86	-9	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	458	103	19	3	10	43	140	14	3	2	224	309	341	651	117	296	27	8	296	86	-8	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	520	458	103	19	3	10	43	140	14	3	3	223	308	339	647	116	296	27	8	294	85	-9	-1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	59%	520	458	102	19	3	9	43	142	14	2	4	221	306	334	640	113	295	27	8	292	84	-10	-1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	61%	520	458	100	18	2	9	43	143	14	2	10	218	303	327	631	109	293	28	8	288	81	-12	-4	-1	+9	+11	0.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	62%	520	460	98	18	2	8	42	145	13	2	32	215	300	319	619	104	291	28	8	283	78	-14	-12	-2	+9	+11	-0.8
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	58	51	11	2	0	1	5	16	2	0	0	210	297	302	598	91	292	28	9	276	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	151	134	28	5	1	2	12	42	4	1	1	214	301	312	613	98	293	28	8	281	77	-4	-0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	229	201	44	8	1	4	19	63	7	1	1	217	304	321	625	104	294	28	8	286	80	-5	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	284	251	56	10	2	5	23	77	8	2	1	220	306	329	636	109	295	27	8	290	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	299	265	59	11	2	5	24	80	8	2	1	223	308	337	645	114	296	27	8	294	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	296	262	59	11	2	5	24	80	8	2	1	224	309	339	648	116	297	27	8	295	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	295	261	60	11	2	6	24	79	8	2	1	224	309	341	650	117	297	27	8	296	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	294	260	59	11	2	6	24	79	8	2	1	224	309	341	651	117	296	27	8	296	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	289	255	56	10	1	5	24	78	8	1	1	223	308	339	647	116	296	27	8	294	85	-5	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	59%	307	271	61	11	2	6	25	84	8	1	2	221	306	334	640	113	295	27	8	292	84	-6	-1	-0	+5	+7	0.5
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	61%	317	280	61	11	2	5	26	87	8	1	6	218	303	327	631	109	293	27	8	288	81	-7	-2	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	62%	324	287	61	11	1	5	26	90	8	1	20	215	300	319	619	104	291	28	8	283	78	-9	-8	-1	+6	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3143	2778	615	112	18	55	256	855	85	16	36	221	307	334	641	113	298	27	8	291	82	-64	-11	-3	+56	+68	4.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	127	23	4	11	53	177	18	3	7	221	307	332	639	111	297	27	8	291	82	-13	-2	-1	+12	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5724	5041	1107	205	30	97	470	1566	160	29	63	220	306	330	636	110	296	27	8	290	82	-118	-19	-4	+101	+122	8.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	125	23	3	11	53	178	18	3	7	219	304	327	631	108	295	27	8	290	82	-14	-2	-0	+12	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.8	3,219	55	17	221	303	332	+57	+32	7.0	6.4
/162	664	11	3	+11.9	+6.6	1.4	pk7: 6
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeans Carrizalez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	204/289/288	83	290	1	0	29%	8%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ronny Hernandez 2023 · A	18	40→50	42→40	48→30	49	196/272/301	105	246	10	5	24%	8%	64	-1.3	220/294/293	73	298	4	3	25%	9%	70	-0.9	229/306/323	94	287	11	1	22%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	37	39→45	46→45	53	177/289/262	85	262	6	6	31%	12%	63	-1.4	182/260/254	72	283	5	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	43→48	38→45	46→40	50	204/277/287	83	255	5	5	21%	9%	62	-1.4	233/285/320	87	295	6	3	22%	6%	72	-0.7	246/292/359	114	319	10	2	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Yasmil Bucce 2024 · A	19	41	38→55	49→40	44	194/265/274	79	279	5	4	30%	8%	55	-2.0	199/299/306	107	308	10	4	35%	11%	76	-0.4	192/301/328	137	300	16	2	37%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Omar Alfonzo 2022 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	55	191/300/261	69	279	4	4	30%	13%	66	-1.1	194/282/281	87	288	8	4	32%	10%	63	-1.3	205/285/317	112	311	13	2	36%	9%	70	-0.6
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→51	43→55	48→45	42	203/262/304	101	271	11	4	29%	6%	61	-1.5	241/298/398	157	309	18	7	27%	7%	95	+1.0	240/301/413	173	300	21	6	27%	7%	98	+0.9
✕Robert Lopez 2022 · A	18	37	38→45	48→45	45	176/263/256	80	259	5	6	32%	8%	51	-2.3	191/259/271	80	288	6	4	33%	8%	52	-2.2	190/257/269	80	283	7	3	33%	8%	47	-0.8
✕Axiel Plaz 2024 · A	18	41→51	39→50	47→40	43	182/289/272	90	310	5	5	38%	9%	65	-1.2	197/270/335	138	273	17	3	33%	7%	72	-0.7	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/266	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	48	-2.5	199/258/259	60	256	3	6	22%	6%	48	-2.5	279/317/335	56	337	1	3	17%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Cam Collier 2024 · A	19	46→44	40→45	47→40	46	215/292/308	93	309	8	5	31%	9%	72	-0.7	214/289/325	111	309	11	3	32%	9%	76	-0.4	204/279/320	116	291	12	1	32%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	43	41→45	45	56	204/303/316	112	273	7	8	26%	12%	79	-0.2	186/265/271	85	280	6	5	33%	9%	55	-2.0	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jonathan Mejía 2023 · A	18	40	40→45	47→50	50	192/295/293	101	272	6	6	29%	10%	72	-0.7	178/265/265	87	292	6	13	37%	9%	53	-2.1	169/262/280	111	278	11	16	40%	10%	54	-0.9
✕Johanfran Garcia 2024 · A	19	41	40→50	49→45	42	199/270/291	93	282	8	6	31%	7%	61	-1.5	219/276/349	130	326	16	5	36%	6%	76	-0.4	218/265/369	151	318	23	4	38%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Joe Mack 2022 · A	19	43→44	39→55	45	48	192/293/275	83	328	6	5	39%	12%	66	-1.1	203/280/302	99	298	11	2	33%	9%	67	-1.1	220/283/384	165	281	22	4	29%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Elis Cuevas 2023 · A	18	43	37→40	45→65	47	198/287/273	75	302	4	7	32%	10%	63	-1.3	198/276/286	88	264	7	25	26%	8%	62	-1.4	188/268/283	95	252	12	43	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Luis Toribio 2019 · A	18	38→39	42→50	48→40	53	188/292/291	103	256	9	5	28%	11%	70	-0.8	198/287/296	98	304	7	5	33%	10%	69	-0.9	174/257/288	114	290	12	2	41%	9%	53	-1.3

Jeans Carrizalez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps