Elis Cuevas
SS Frederick Keys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKBAL | 276 | .260/.382/.408 | 8 | 47 | 72 | — | .206/.305/.323 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 327 | .217/.330/.297 | 4 | 35 | 41 | — | .180/.268/.249 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+BAL | 218 | .251/.335/.419 | 7 | 24 | 59 | — | .199/.270/.337 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 1 | .198/.270/.303 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 57 | .203/.276/.316 | 1 | 3 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 112 | .207/.280/.326 | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | — | 124 | 98 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 265 | 411 | 367 | 779 | 102 | 385 | 26 | 18 | 362 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 217 | 187 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 305 | 401 | 455 | 855 | 150 | 382 | 19 | 11 | 384 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 81 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 234 | 388 | 359 | 747 | 125 | 289 | 22 | 17 | 345 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 159 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 9 | 33 | 7 | 270 | 380 | 428 | 808 | 157 | 285 | 13 | 11 | 358 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 117 | 97 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 196 | 313 | 278 | 591 | 82 | 281 | 28 | 13 | 275 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 210 | 179 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 39 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 229 | 340 | 307 | 647 | 78 | 277 | 19 | 11 | 303 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 191 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 61 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 251 | 335 | 419 | 754 | 168 | 328 | 28 | 6 | 334 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 124 | 106 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 160 | 282 | 236 | 518 | 75 | 248 | 32 | 12 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 217 | 196 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 53 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 189 | 267 | 270 | 538 | 82 | 248 | 24 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 81 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 325 | 309 | 634 | 103 | 277 | 30 | 12 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 170 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 9 | 33 | 7 | 206 | 297 | 329 | 626 | 124 | 218 | 18 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 117 | 103 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 155 | 243 | 223 | 467 | 68 | 235 | 37 | 9 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 210 | 186 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 194 | 282 | 263 | 546 | 70 | 249 | 25 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 196 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 199 | 270 | 337 | 607 | 138 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 124 | 106 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 160 | 282 | 236 | 518 | 75 | 246 | 32 | 12 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Black | — | 124 | 98 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 265 | 411 | 367 | 779 | 102 | 385 | 26 | 18 | 362 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 217 | 196 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 53 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 189 | 267 | 270 | 538 | 82 | 254 | 24 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 217 | 187 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 305 | 401 | 455 | 855 | 150 | 382 | 19 | 11 | 384 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 238 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 58 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 206 | 305 | 324 | 629 | 118 | 239 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 223 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 43 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 260 | 382 | 408 | 790 | 148 | 286 | 16 | 13 | 354 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 290 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 96 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 179 | 265 | 241 | 507 | 62 | 255 | 29 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 276 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 72 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 217 | 330 | 297 | 627 | 80 | 279 | 22 | 12 | 293 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 196 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 199 | 270 | 337 | 607 | 138 | 295 | 37 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 191 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 61 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 251 | 335 | 419 | 754 | 168 | 328 | 28 | 6 | 334 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 124 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 162 | 282 | 238 | 520 | 76 | 248 | 32 | 12 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 217 | 194 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 53 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 191 | 267 | 273 | 540 | 82 | 248 | 24 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 240 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 58 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 204 | 305 | 321 | 626 | 117 | 235 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 290 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 96 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 179 | 265 | 241 | 507 | 62 | 244 | 29 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 197 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 198 | 270 | 335 | 605 | 137 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 240 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 58 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 204 | 305 | 321 | 626 | 117 | 235 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 290 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 96 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 179 | 265 | 241 | 507 | 62 | 244 | 29 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 218 | 197 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 198 | 270 | 335 | 605 | 137 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 328 | 295 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 104 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 194 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 102 | 274 | 32 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -15 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 303 | 573 | 105 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 61 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 35% | 164 | 148 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 51 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 273 | 309 | 582 | 109 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 46% | 243 | 219 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 74 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 203 | 277 | 318 | 595 | 115 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 305 | 274 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 91 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 280 | 325 | 605 | 119 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 346 | 311 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 102 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 208 | 282 | 329 | 611 | 121 | 278 | 29 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 362 | 326 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 106 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 209 | 283 | 330 | 613 | 121 | 279 | 29 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 368 | 331 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 109 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 207 | 281 | 326 | 607 | 119 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 363 | 327 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 108 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 205 | 279 | 320 | 598 | 115 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 35% | 57 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 276 | 316 | 592 | 113 | 279 | 32 | 7 | 269 | 66 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 46% | 112 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 326 | 606 | 119 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 275 | 69 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 158 | 142 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 332 | 616 | 123 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 72 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 188 | 169 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 55 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 285 | 336 | 622 | 125 | 282 | 29 | 7 | 281 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 196 | 176 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 57 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 212 | 286 | 338 | 624 | 126 | 283 | 29 | 7 | 282 | 74 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 200 | 179 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 59 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 333 | 618 | 123 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 280 | 72 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 193 | 174 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 282 | 327 | 609 | 119 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 276 | 70 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1104 | 993 | 211 | 34 | 6 | 27 | 76 | 328 | 25 | 35 | 9 | 212 | 285 | 340 | 626 | 128 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 65 | -37 | +3 | -1 | +12 | +24 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 45 | 193 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 214 | 287 | 344 | 631 | 130 | 287 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 65 | -22 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3439 | 3076 | 616 | 96 | 19 | 67 | 242 | 1008 | 92 | 201 | 53 | 200 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 109 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -79 | +7 | -2 | +24 | +49 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 117 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 191 | 17 | 38 | 10 | 201 | 280 | 313 | 593 | 112 | 273 | 29 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -23 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 218 PAwOBA .328 → .256 (−72)K% 28.0% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.05% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 3.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 21.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.80% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .328 → .256; ISO .168 → .135; BABIP .328 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 210 PAwOBA .296 → .242 (−54)K% 18.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.57% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .296 → .242; ISO .078 → .068; BABIP .277 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 117 PAwOBA .271 → .205 (−66)K% 28.2% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 18.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .271 → .205; ISO .082 → .061; BABIP .281 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 195 PAwOBA .353 → .269 (−84)K% 12.8% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.13% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.73% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .269; ISO .157 → .126; BABIP .285 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 81 PAwOBA .341 → .288 (−53)K% 22.2% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.28% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 24.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .341 → .288; ISO .125 → .104; BABIP .289 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 217 PAwOBA .371 → .240 (−131)K% 18.9% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.89% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.34% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 16.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷0.991 | ×0.600 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.847 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .371 → .240; ISO .150 → .090; BABIP .382 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BAL Black · 124 PAwOBA .354 → .235 (−119)K% 25.8% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.74% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.79% | ÷1.030 | ×0.680 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷0.867 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.834 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.86% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 106, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .354 → .235; ISO .102 → .065; BABIP .385 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).