Robert Lopez — OGILVIE

Robert LopezC Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 182 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .267 / .281

PA182

HR2

K%25

BB%8

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Red	—	124	108	12	3	1	1	11	46	5	2	1	111	226	185	411	74	180	37	9	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Red	—	124	102	17	5	1	2	17	32	5	2	1	167	315	294	609	127	221	26	14	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	100	91	12	2	0	0	7	36	2	1	1	132	210	154	364	22	218	36	7	169	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	100	87	17	3	0	0	11	26	2	1	1	195	300	230	530	34	279	26	11	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	273	254	52	11	1	5	16	90	1	1	0	205	255	315	570	110	292	33	6	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	273	243	59	13	1	6	27	61	1	1	0	243	321	379	700	136	298	22	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	209	192	36	6	0	4	16	78	1	3	0	188	254	281	535	94	291	37	8	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	209	179	44	7	0	3	29	53	1	3	0	246	354	335	689	89	333	25	14	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	195	175	26	7	0	1	17	64	2	2	1	149	232	206	438	57	225	33	9	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	195	167	33	8	0	1	25	44	2	2	1	198	309	263	573	66	260	23	13	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	CLE	—	182	164	34	7	1	2	14	46	2	3	1	207	278	299	577	91	264	25	8	253	52	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	248	224	47	10	1	4	20	61	2	4	1	210	280	317	597	107	268	25	8	267	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	343	309	66	14	1	6	28	83	3	5	1	214	285	324	609	110	271	24	8	276	70	-12	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	398	359	79	16	2	8	32	96	4	5	1	220	291	343	634	123	272	24	8	281	73	-12	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.7
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	433	390	85	18	2	8	36	104	4	6	2	218	291	336	627	118	273	24	8	283	75	-12	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.8
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	448	404	88	18	2	9	37	108	4	6	2	218	290	339	629	121	273	24	8	283	75	-13	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.9
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	85	77	15	3	0	1	7	21	1	1	0	195	271	273	543	78	269	25	8	261	58	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	158	143	31	6	1	3	13	38	1	2	1	217	287	336	622	119	272	24	8	270	65	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	206	185	40	8	1	4	17	50	2	3	1	216	289	335	624	119	273	24	8	275	68	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	235	212	47	10	1	5	19	56	2	3	1	222	292	349	641	127	273	24	8	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	243	219	48	10	1	5	20	58	2	3	1	219	290	342	633	123	273	24	8	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	927	836	181	37	4	18	76	223	8	12	4	217	288	335	623	118	272	24	8	274	68	-34	+1	+0	+17	+26	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	26	3	13	53	156	6	8	3	218	290	340	630	121	274	24	8	274	68	-24	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	2953	2670	537	112	11	48	234	812	30	38	11	201	273	305	578	104	268	27	8	259	57	-145	+3	+0	+53	+84	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	119	25	2	11	52	179	7	8	2	202	276	308	583	105	269	28	8	259	57	-32	+1	+0	+12	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Red	—	124	102	17	5	1	2	17	32	5	2	1	167	315	294	609	127	221	26	14	289	80	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	100	87	17	3	0	0	11	26	2	1	1	195	300	230	530	34	279	26	11	257	55	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	273	243	59	13	1	6	27	61	1	1	0	243	321	379	700	136	298	22	10	314	98	-1	+0	—	—	+8	0.8
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	209	179	44	7	0	3	29	53	1	3	0	246	354	335	689	89	333	25	14	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.7
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	195	167	33	8	0	1	25	44	2	2	1	198	309	263	573	66	260	23	13	272	66	-7	+0	—	—	+6	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,109	19	15	215	283	326	+20	+12	1.5	1.6
	/162	664	11	9	215	283	326	+11.9	+7.2	0.9	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Lopez (OGILVIE)	22	30	20	40	50	199/267/281	82	264	2	3	25%	8%	52	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	42	35→30	42→30	47	198/274/259	61	274	3	4	27%	8%	50	-1.8	213/266/275	62	297	3	6	27%	6%	48	-1.9	241/305/316	75	293	8	1	20%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	38	185/246/256	71	259	4	4	29%	5%	37	-2.7	220/285/305	85	299	6	6	27%	5%	65	-0.7	236/303/318	83	317	6	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Noe Becerra 2009 · AAA	22	42	37→30	44→40	46	201/262/269	69	259	5	7	24%	7%	46	-2.0	226/280/312	86	274	7	7	19%	7%	64	-0.8	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	39→35	35→30	44→50	48	182/265/240	58	277	2	9	32%	10%	40	-2.4	219/302/285	66	307	2	16	26%	10%	67	-0.5	235/324/293	58	319	1	21	24%	11%	73	-0.1
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Elias Arias 2016 · A	22	45	36→30	46→55	46	211/274/274	63	275	4	13	24%	7%	52	-1.6	200/254/283	83	304	6	9	34%	6%	46	-2.0	161/210/245	83	254	7	9	38%	5%	13	-0.9
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Brian Serven 2017 · A	22	39	37→45	39→30	40	187/227/257	70	241	4	4	24%	4%	27	-3.3	192/247/283	91	253	6	4	26%	5%	43	-2.2	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕David Martin 2023 · A	22	45	39→30	49→30	42	211/285/301	89	298	5	7	29%	6%	65	-0.7	218/299/286	68	273	4	4	20%	8%	67	-0.5	236/329/295	58	282	5	1	16%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Cole Armstrong 2006 · A	22	39→36	41→50	41→30	42	194/237/295	102	240	9	3	23%	5%	41	-2.3	209/250/319	110	269	11	3	26%	5%	53	-1.5	228/278/362	134	273	17	1	23%	6%	76	+0.0
✕David Narodowski 2011 · A	22	36	40	42→45	46	181/257/264	83	246	8	7	29%	8%	43	-2.2	200/260/286	86	282	7	8	29%	7%	50	-1.8	185/240/258	73	257	4	7	28%	7%	30	-0.7
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Cody Morissette 2022 · A	22	40→30	39→45	43→50	44	195/263/280	86	281	6	5	31%	8%	50	-1.8	187/242/315	128	251	15	7	31%	6%	50	-1.7	177/232/287	110	241	13	21	31%	6%	37	-1.4
✕J.C. Escarra 2018 · A	23	39→46	38→45	43→45	50	186/276/271	85	246	4	3	25%	9%	54	-1.4	195/259/285	90	246	8	4	23%	6%	49	-1.8	223/294/353	130	256	11	4	17%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→40	44→45	40	197/250/273	76	268	5	7	28%	5%	42	-2.3	215/268/305	90	308	8	6	31%	5%	58	-1.2	215/271/305	90	313	9	6	32%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	41	37→40	45→50	44	197/255/273	76	263	4	7	26%	7%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	276	8	11	25%	7%	61	-1.0	203/270/297	93	260	8	13	24%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Josue Herrera 2019 · A	22	40	39→40	43→45	47	196/268/275	79	256	7	6	25%	8%	50	-1.7	201/268/304	103	290	9	6	31%	8%	58	-1.2	162/234/299	138	237	14	4	37%	9%	42	-0.5
✕Richie Fecteau 2017 · A	23	39	36→45	44→40	49	186/257/257	72	243	2	6	23%	8%	41	-2.3	219/269/321	102	294	9	4	27%	6%	62	-0.9	223/268/330	107	301	10	2	28%	5%	61	-0.5