Robert Lopez
C Lynchburg Hillcats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ALynchburg Hil… | 273 | .243/.321/.379 | 6 | 1 | 61 | — | .211/.269/.323 |
| 2024 | 20 | ALynchburg Hil… | 209 | .246/.354/.335 | 3 | 3 | 51 | — | .196/.273/.275 |
| 2025 | 21 | ALynchburg Hil… | 195 | .198/.309/.263 | 1 | 2 | 28 | — | .161/.247/.218 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCLE | 305 | .194/.270/.267 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ29% MLB | 24 | MLBCLE | 28 | .200/.276/.284 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 73 | .204/.280/.296 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Indians Red | — | 124 | 102 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 315 | 294 | 609 | 127 | 221 | 26 | 14 | 289 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 100 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 300 | 230 | 530 | 34 | 279 | 26 | 11 | 257 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 273 | 243 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 321 | 379 | 700 | 136 | 298 | 22 | 10 | 314 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 179 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 246 | 354 | 335 | 689 | 89 | 333 | 25 | 14 | 320 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 167 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 309 | 263 | 573 | 66 | 260 | 23 | 13 | 272 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 124 | 107 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 103 | 226 | 178 | 403 | 75 | 144 | 31 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 100 | 91 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 132 | 210 | 154 | 364 | 22 | 224 | 37 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 273 | 251 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 323 | 592 | 112 | 290 | 31 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 189 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 273 | 275 | 548 | 79 | 296 | 35 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 174 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 161 | 247 | 218 | 466 | 57 | 230 | 31 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 124 | 107 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 103 | 226 | 178 | 403 | 75 | 149 | 31 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians Red | — | 124 | 102 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 315 | 294 | 609 | 127 | 221 | 26 | 14 | 289 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 100 | 91 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 132 | 210 | 154 | 364 | 22 | 222 | 37 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 100 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 300 | 230 | 530 | 34 | 279 | 26 | 11 | 257 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 273 | 251 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 323 | 592 | 112 | 294 | 31 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 273 | 243 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 321 | 379 | 700 | 136 | 298 | 22 | 10 | 314 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 189 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 273 | 275 | 548 | 79 | 301 | 35 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 179 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 246 | 354 | 335 | 689 | 89 | 333 | 25 | 14 | 320 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 174 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 161 | 247 | 218 | 466 | 57 | 237 | 31 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 167 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 309 | 263 | 573 | 66 | 260 | 23 | 13 | 272 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 124 | 106 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 104 | 226 | 179 | 405 | 75 | 144 | 31 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 100 | 91 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 132 | 210 | 154 | 364 | 22 | 224 | 37 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 273 | 251 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 323 | 592 | 112 | 290 | 31 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 187 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 273 | 278 | 551 | 80 | 296 | 35 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 173 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 162 | 247 | 220 | 467 | 58 | 230 | 31 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 209 | 187 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 273 | 278 | 551 | 80 | 296 | 35 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 195 | 173 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 162 | 247 | 220 | 467 | 58 | 230 | 31 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 305 | 273 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 81 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 194 | 270 | 267 | 538 | 73 | 264 | 27 | 9 | 249 | 54 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 29% | 96 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 276 | 284 | 560 | 85 | 266 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 45% | 162 | 146 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 93 | 268 | 26 | 9 | 264 | 65 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 54% | 224 | 201 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 282 | 305 | 588 | 99 | 269 | 25 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 58% | 267 | 240 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 101 | 270 | 25 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 61% | 295 | 265 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 101 | 270 | 26 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 62% | 303 | 271 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 280 | 302 | 582 | 97 | 268 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 29% | 28 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 276 | 284 | 560 | 84 | 267 | 25 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 45% | 73 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 280 | 296 | 576 | 92 | 268 | 26 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 54% | 121 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 283 | 304 | 587 | 98 | 269 | 26 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 58% | 156 | 141 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 307 | 590 | 100 | 270 | 26 | 8 | 269 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 61% | 180 | 160 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 307 | 591 | 100 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 269 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 62% | 188 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 280 | 301 | 582 | 96 | 269 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 746 | 670 | 139 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 192 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 207 | 282 | 310 | 593 | 103 | 272 | 26 | 8 | 267 | 55 | -29 | +1 | -1 | +13 | +16 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 167 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 207 | 282 | 310 | 592 | 103 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 267 | 55 | -25 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2320 | 2087 | 399 | 81 | 7 | 28 | 196 | 660 | 24 | 25 | 8 | 191 | 268 | 277 | 545 | 86 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -57 | +1 | -2 | +25 | +31 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 185 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 191 | 269 | 279 | 548 | 87 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -26 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 195 PAwOBA .267 → .210 (−57)K% 22.6% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.56% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.184 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .267 → .210; ISO .066 → .053; BABIP .260 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 209 PAwOBA .311 → .244 (−67)K% 25.4% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.36% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.40% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.98% | ÷1.056 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.030 | 23.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.030 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .311 → .244; ISO .089 → .077; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 273 PAwOBA .308 → .258 (−49)K% 22.3% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.34% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.045 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.045 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.045 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 96, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .308 → .258; ISO .136 → .111; BABIP .298 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Guardians · 100 PAwOBA .251 → .173 (−78)K% 26.0% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷1.019 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 19.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.076 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 3.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .251 → .173; ISO .034 → .021; BABIP .279 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Indians Red · 124 PAwOBA .283 → .186 (−96)K% 25.8% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.71% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.03% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.86% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 8.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.017 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.35% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .283 → .186; ISO .127 → .070; BABIP .221 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).