Jonathan Mejía
SS Palm Beach Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKSTL | 205 | .299/.399/.425 | 3 | 18 | 59 | — | .207/.281/.283 |
| 2025 | 20 | ASTL | 324 | .183/.305/.308 | 6 | 18 | 36 | — | .146/.237/.240 |
| 2026 | 21 | ASTL | 321 | .220/.372/.424 | 12 | 9 | 70 | — | .172/.287/.322 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSTL | 431 | .165/.265/.283 | 9 | 10 | 57 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBSTL | 84 | .171/.269/.291 | 2 | 2 | 62 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 150 | .176/.274/.301 | 3 | 3 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 208 | 165 | 44 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 267 | 418 | 479 | 897 | 212 | 348 | 23 | 16 | 401 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 33 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 242 | 143 | 385 | 36 | 167 | 30 | 12 | 201 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 104 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 173 | 331 | 288 | 619 | 115 | 242 | 28 | 18 | 292 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 174 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 52 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 299 | 399 | 425 | 824 | 126 | 405 | 25 | 12 | 370 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 273 | 50 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 106 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 183 | 305 | 308 | 613 | 125 | 270 | 33 | 14 | 283 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 255 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 88 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 220 | 372 | 424 | 796 | 204 | 277 | 27 | 18 | 355 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 208 | 174 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 161 | 298 | 270 | 568 | 109 | 219 | 28 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 33 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 212 | 138 | 350 | 34 | 156 | 42 | 9 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 114 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 114 | 223 | 175 | 399 | 61 | 187 | 40 | 11 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 184 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 207 | 281 | 283 | 563 | 76 | 319 | 36 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 287 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 146 | 237 | 240 | 477 | 94 | 268 | 44 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 273 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 120 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 172 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 150 | 243 | 37 | 13 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 208 | 174 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 161 | 298 | 270 | 568 | 109 | 230 | 28 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 208 | 165 | 44 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 267 | 418 | 479 | 897 | 212 | 348 | 23 | 16 | 401 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 143 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 105 | 215 | 161 | 376 | 56 | 187 | 41 | 11 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 164 | 132 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 47 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 159 | 313 | 258 | 570 | 98 | 226 | 29 | 17 | 274 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 184 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 207 | 281 | 283 | 563 | 76 | 327 | 36 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 174 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 52 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 299 | 399 | 425 | 824 | 126 | 405 | 25 | 12 | 370 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 287 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 146 | 237 | 240 | 477 | 94 | 270 | 44 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 273 | 50 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 106 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 183 | 305 | 308 | 613 | 125 | 270 | 33 | 14 | 283 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 273 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 120 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 172 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 150 | 257 | 37 | 13 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 255 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 88 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 220 | 372 | 424 | 796 | 204 | 277 | 27 | 18 | 355 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 208 | 172 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 163 | 298 | 273 | 571 | 110 | 219 | 28 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 143 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 105 | 215 | 161 | 376 | 56 | 181 | 41 | 11 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 184 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 207 | 281 | 283 | 563 | 76 | 319 | 36 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 287 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 146 | 237 | 240 | 477 | 94 | 268 | 44 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 274 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 120 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 172 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 150 | 243 | 37 | 13 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 205 | 184 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 207 | 281 | 283 | 563 | 76 | 319 | 36 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 324 | 287 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 146 | 237 | 240 | 477 | 94 | 268 | 44 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 321 | 274 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 120 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 172 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 150 | 243 | 37 | 13 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 431 | 377 | 63 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 151 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 165 | 265 | 283 | 547 | 118 | 241 | 35 | 11 | 253 | 57 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 34% | 244 | 213 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 171 | 270 | 296 | 566 | 124 | 245 | 34 | 11 | 260 | 62 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 46% | 326 | 284 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 109 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 177 | 274 | 306 | 580 | 129 | 249 | 33 | 11 | 266 | 66 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 372 | 325 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 122 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 278 | 313 | 590 | 132 | 252 | 33 | 11 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 399 | 350 | 65 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 128 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 184 | 280 | 317 | 597 | 133 | 254 | 32 | 11 | 272 | 70 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 411 | 361 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 131 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 186 | 281 | 320 | 600 | 133 | 255 | 32 | 11 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 411 | 361 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 132 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 184 | 279 | 315 | 594 | 131 | 255 | 32 | 11 | 271 | 70 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 58% | 403 | 354 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 130 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 182 | 276 | 309 | 586 | 127 | 253 | 32 | 11 | 267 | 67 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 34% | 84 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 269 | 291 | 560 | 120 | 246 | 35 | 11 | 258 | 62 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 46% | 150 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 176 | 274 | 301 | 574 | 124 | 250 | 33 | 11 | 263 | 66 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 192 | 167 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 180 | 277 | 307 | 584 | 127 | 253 | 33 | 11 | 267 | 69 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 216 | 189 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 183 | 279 | 312 | 591 | 129 | 255 | 32 | 11 | 270 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 223 | 195 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 71 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 186 | 280 | 314 | 595 | 129 | 257 | 32 | 11 | 271 | 71 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 223 | 195 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 184 | 278 | 310 | 589 | 126 | 256 | 32 | 11 | 269 | 70 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 58% | 232 | 203 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 276 | 304 | 580 | 123 | 255 | 32 | 11 | 266 | 67 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1320 | 1155 | 210 | 35 | 12 | 29 | 142 | 429 | 12 | 26 | 11 | 182 | 278 | 308 | 586 | 126 | 257 | 32 | 11 | 267 | 62 | -49 | +1 | -1 | +14 | +29 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 103 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 211 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 181 | 278 | 306 | 583 | 125 | 256 | 32 | 11 | 267 | 62 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3996 | 3490 | 609 | 100 | 36 | 84 | 431 | 1373 | 43 | 113 | 39 | 174 | 273 | 296 | 569 | 121 | 255 | 34 | 11 | 260 | 62 | -108 | +3 | -2 | +30 | +60 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 99 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 223 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 174 | 273 | 298 | 570 | 123 | 254 | 34 | 11 | 260 | 62 | -25 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 321 PAwOBA .351 → .271 (−80)K% 27.4% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 12.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 16.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .351 → .271; ISO .204 → .159; BABIP .277 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 324 PAwOBA .277 → .222 (−54)K% 32.7% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.89% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.030 | 20.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.40% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.030 | 2.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.037 | ×1.030 | 3.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .277 → .222; ISO .125 → .103; BABIP .270 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 205 PAwOBA .364 → .255 (−109)K% 25.4% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.37% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.043 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.15% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×0.984 | ×1.008 | 25.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.38% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×0.984 | ×1.008 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | ×0.984 | ×1.008 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.98% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .364 → .255; ISO .126 → .089; BABIP .405 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 131 PAwOBA .288 → .195 (−92)K% 28.2% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 11.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 15.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 3.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.38% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .288 → .195; ISO .115 → .080; BABIP .242 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 33 PAwOBA .197 → .149 (−48)K% 30.3% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 10.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .197 → .149; ISO .036 → .026; BABIP .167 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Cardinals · 208 PAwOBA .392 → .255 (−137)K% 23.1% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.87% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.81% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.80% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | ×0.951 | ×1.022 | 12.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.97% | ÷0.910 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.022 | 7.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.022 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.98% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 82, 3B 119, K 98, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .392 → .255; ISO .212 → .116; BABIP .348 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).