Kay-Lan Nicasia
RF Biloxi Shuckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | ACarolina Mudc… | 112 | .227/.318/.433 | 4 | 10 | 47 | — | .168/.236/.327 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+MIL | 257 | .156/.307/.303 | 6 | 11 | 16 | — | .095/.218/.171 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAMIL | 42 | .083/.214/.083 | 0 | 5 | -34 | — | .053/.143/.053 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBMIL | 2 | .153/.254/.233 | 0 | 0 | 44 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBMIL | 46 | .158/.258/.246 | 1 | 1 | 48 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 50 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 320 | 190 | 510 | 333 | 36 | 16 | 256 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 164 | 138 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 232 | 346 | 435 | 780 | 203 | 287 | 25 | 14 | 344 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 342 | 287 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 105 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 332 | 352 | 684 | 136 | 309 | 31 | 14 | 310 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 97 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 227 | 318 | 433 | 751 | 206 | 281 | 28 | 11 | 328 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 211 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 98 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 156 | 307 | 303 | 611 | 147 | 252 | 38 | 16 | 288 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 83 | 214 | 83 | 298 | 176 | 45 | 14 | 164 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 50 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 275 | 52 | 10 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 164 | 147 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 150 | 228 | 265 | 494 | 116 | 220 | 37 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 342 | 302 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 162 | 249 | 258 | 508 | 96 | 273 | 42 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 168 | 236 | 327 | 563 | 158 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 222 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 132 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 95 | 218 | 171 | 389 | 77 | 212 | 51 | 12 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 143 | 53 | 195 | 164 | 55 | 10 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 50 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 263 | 52 | 10 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 50 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 320 | 190 | 510 | 333 | 36 | 16 | 256 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 164 | 147 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 150 | 228 | 265 | 494 | 116 | 221 | 37 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 164 | 138 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 232 | 346 | 435 | 780 | 203 | 287 | 25 | 14 | 344 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 342 | 302 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 162 | 249 | 258 | 508 | 96 | 283 | 42 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 342 | 287 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 105 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 332 | 352 | 684 | 136 | 309 | 31 | 14 | 310 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 168 | 236 | 327 | 563 | 158 | 241 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 97 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 227 | 318 | 433 | 751 | 206 | 281 | 28 | 11 | 328 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 222 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 132 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 95 | 218 | 171 | 389 | 77 | 207 | 51 | 12 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 211 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 98 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 156 | 307 | 303 | 611 | 147 | 252 | 38 | 16 | 288 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 143 | 53 | 195 | 133 | 55 | 10 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 83 | 214 | 83 | 298 | 176 | 45 | 14 | 164 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 50 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 275 | 52 | 10 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 164 | 148 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 149 | 228 | 264 | 492 | 115 | 220 | 37 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 342 | 304 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 144 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 161 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 95 | 273 | 42 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 102 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 236 | 324 | 560 | 157 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 220 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 132 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 95 | 218 | 173 | 391 | 77 | 212 | 51 | 12 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 143 | 53 | 195 | 164 | 55 | 10 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 112 | 102 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 236 | 324 | 560 | 157 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 257 | 220 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 132 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 95 | 218 | 173 | 391 | 77 | 212 | 51 | 12 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 42 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 143 | 53 | 195 | 164 | 55 | 10 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 2% | 200 | 174 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 79 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 256 | 235 | 491 | 81 | 260 | 40 | 11 | 232 | 44 | -13 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 254 | 233 | 488 | 81 | 256 | 50 | 0 | 231 | 44 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 31% | 147 | 128 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 160 | 260 | 248 | 508 | 88 | 262 | 39 | 11 | 239 | 48 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 31% | 46 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 258 | 246 | 504 | 88 | 258 | 39 | 11 | 237 | 48 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 239 | 244 | 483 | 98 | 227 | 39 | 11 | 237 | 33 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 85 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 71 | 254 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 147 | 240 | 244 | 484 | 97 | 228 | 39 | 11 | 237 | 33 | -40 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1201 | 1060 | 148 | 30 | 9 | 16 | 118 | 518 | 13 | 61 | 16 | 140 | 234 | 230 | 464 | 91 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 216 | 33 | -15 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 80 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 280 | 7 | 33 | 9 | 139 | 234 | 232 | 466 | 92 | 245 | 43 | 10 | 216 | 33 | -42 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 42 PAwOBA .161 → .118 (−43)K% 45.2% → 55.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 55.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 16.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .161 → .118; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .176 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 257 PAwOBA .282 → .192 (−90)K% 38.1% → 51.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.13% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 51.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.95% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.16% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 12.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .282 → .192; ISO .147 → .085; BABIP .252 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 112 PAwOBA .325 → .237 (−87)K% 27.7% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.68% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | — | 13.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.954 | — | 7.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.954 | — | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .325 → .237; ISO .206 → .147; BABIP .281 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 342 PAwOBA .307 → .230 (−77)K% 30.7% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.70% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 19.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .307 → .230; ISO .136 → .101; BABIP .309 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 164 PAwOBA .339 → .226 (−113)K% 25.0% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.02% | ÷1.017 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×0.995 | 14.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.995 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.09% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.995 | 2.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.144 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.50% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .339 → .226; ISO .203 → .132; BABIP .287 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 50 PAwOBA .251 → .161 (−91)K% 36.0% → 51.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 27.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .161; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).