Tommy Sacco Jr.
SS Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AAHOU | 532 | .248/.346/.378 | 11 | 19 | 71 | — | .215/.289/.324 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AAHOU | 460 | .188/.267/.244 | 3 | 14 | 20 | — | .169/.225/.221 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AAHOU | 267 | .200/.306/.335 | 7 | 14 | 42 | — | .167/.245/.268 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBHOU | 16 | .182/.250/.266 | 0 | 0 | 45 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBHOU | 49 | .183/.251/.267 | 1 | 1 | 46 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 107 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 198 | 280 | 323 | 603 | 125 | 250 | 24 | 10 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 418 | 346 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 66 | 102 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 225 | 356 | 382 | 737 | 156 | 282 | 24 | 16 | 336 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 84 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 275 | 398 | 391 | 789 | 116 | 383 | 26 | 17 | 358 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 448 | 391 | 95 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 52 | 83 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 243 | 336 | 376 | 712 | 133 | 283 | 19 | 12 | 322 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 244 | 209 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 55 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 220 | 321 | 282 | 603 | 62 | 286 | 23 | 12 | 280 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 216 | 201 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 154 | 206 | 204 | 410 | 50 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 190 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 175 | 154 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 195 | 287 | 286 | 573 | 91 | 275 | 29 | 10 | 266 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 92 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 211 | 341 | 434 | 775 | 224 | 234 | 27 | 15 | 344 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 107 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 160 | 215 | 270 | 485 | 110 | 226 | 34 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 418 | 374 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 138 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 163 | 248 | 262 | 510 | 99 | 224 | 33 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 84 | 73 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 337 | 356 | 694 | 110 | 351 | 31 | 12 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 448 | 406 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 101 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 209 | 280 | 318 | 598 | 108 | 258 | 23 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 244 | 219 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 201 | 271 | 260 | 531 | 59 | 265 | 27 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 216 | 204 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 71 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 132 | 173 | 176 | 349 | 44 | 192 | 33 | 4 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 175 | 160 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 163 | 230 | 225 | 455 | 62 | 250 | 35 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 92 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 175 | 275 | 350 | 625 | 175 | 200 | 34 | 11 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 107 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 160 | 215 | 270 | 485 | 110 | 226 | 34 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 107 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 198 | 280 | 323 | 603 | 125 | 250 | 24 | 10 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 418 | 374 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 138 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 163 | 248 | 262 | 510 | 99 | 230 | 33 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 418 | 346 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 66 | 102 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 225 | 356 | 382 | 737 | 156 | 282 | 24 | 16 | 336 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 480 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 127 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 217 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 108 | 274 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 532 | 460 | 114 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 66 | 105 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 248 | 346 | 378 | 724 | 130 | 297 | 20 | 12 | 328 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 423 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 165 | 222 | 210 | 433 | 45 | 237 | 30 | 6 | 197 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 410 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 115 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 188 | 267 | 244 | 510 | 56 | 251 | 25 | 9 | 237 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 241 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 92 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 166 | 242 | 266 | 507 | 100 | 240 | 34 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 230 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 76 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 200 | 306 | 335 | 640 | 135 | 262 | 28 | 12 | 293 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 107 | 99 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 162 | 215 | 273 | 488 | 111 | 226 | 34 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 418 | 373 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 138 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 164 | 248 | 263 | 510 | 99 | 224 | 33 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 478 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 127 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 218 | 289 | 326 | 616 | 109 | 273 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 426 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 164 | 222 | 209 | 431 | 45 | 231 | 30 | 6 | 197 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 241 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 92 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 166 | 242 | 266 | 507 | 100 | 233 | 34 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 478 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 127 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 218 | 289 | 326 | 616 | 109 | 273 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 426 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 164 | 222 | 209 | 431 | 45 | 231 | 30 | 6 | 197 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 241 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 92 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 166 | 242 | 266 | 507 | 100 | 233 | 34 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 10% | 317 | 288 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 180 | 248 | 263 | 511 | 83 | 255 | 32 | 8 | 235 | 45 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 10% | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 266 | 515 | 84 | 258 | 31 | 6 | 237 | 45 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 27% | 180 | 164 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 181 | 249 | 264 | 513 | 84 | 256 | 31 | 7 | 236 | 46 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 27% | 49 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 251 | 267 | 518 | 84 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 238 | 46 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 245 | 267 | 512 | 89 | 241 | 31 | 8 | 238 | 44 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 106 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 199 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 178 | 245 | 265 | 509 | 87 | 242 | 31 | 8 | 238 | 44 | -42 | +3 | -5 | +7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2119 | 1923 | 345 | 58 | 10 | 30 | 165 | 635 | 15 | 79 | 22 | 179 | 250 | 267 | 516 | 87 | 248 | 30 | 8 | 233 | 44 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 106 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 51 | 195 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 180 | 251 | 266 | 517 | 86 | 249 | 30 | 8 | 233 | 44 | -42 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 175 PAwOBA .258 → .212 (−47)K% 29.1% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .258 → .212; ISO .091 → .071; BABIP .275 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 92 PAwOBA .339 → .266 (−73)K% 27.2% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 15.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 7.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .339 → .266; ISO .224 → .176; BABIP .234 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 244 PAwOBA .276 → .235 (−41)K% 22.5% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.54% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.68% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 22.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.25% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 3.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .276 → .235; ISO .062 → .055; BABIP .286 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 216 PAwOBA .186 → .155 (−31)K% 27.8% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.948 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 15.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.55% | ÷0.930 | ×0.840 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.057 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .186 → .155; ISO .050 → .041; BABIP .213 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 448 PAwOBA .315 → .268 (−47)K% 18.5% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.53% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.38% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 19.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.908 | ×0.840 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.908 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.25% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 82, 3B 82, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .315 → .268; ISO .133 → .115; BABIP .283 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 84 PAwOBA .353 → .300 (−53)K% 26.2% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.19% | ÷1.006 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 25.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 9.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .353 → .300; ISO .116 → .102; BABIP .383 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 418 PAwOBA .330 → .230 (−100)K% 24.4% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷0.971 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.08% | ÷0.968 | ×0.870 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.980 | ×0.850 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.218 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 96, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .330 → .230; ISO .156 → .108; BABIP .282 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 107 PAwOBA .268 → .207 (−61)K% 24.3% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.30% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.28% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .268 → .207; ISO .125 → .095; BABIP .250 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).