Nerwilian Cedeño3B San Antonio Missions
Age 24 S/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AA HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 257 proj PA
wRC+†40
AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .239 / .283
PA257
HR4
SB5
K%31
BB%6
ISO98
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -17.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-17BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +7.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -0.90-0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.00.0-$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 37
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT28
scouting grade only
POWER37
scouting grade only
EYE41
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201917 ROKDSL Padres — 210182 24410 24622 41 132240165405 33197 3011 198 10 — — — — — —
201917 ROKDSL Padres — 210166 32610 40432 41 193356241597 48256 2019 292 82 — — — — — —
202119 ROKACL Padres — 6658 8511 6291 20 138231310541 172241 449 247 47 — — — — — —
202119 ROKACL Padres — 6654 13812 9201 20 241354537891 296333 3014 377 147 — — — — — —
202220 A2 teams — 362321 59936 341294 189 184270287557 103280 369 253 52 — — — — — —
202220 A2 teams — 362308 781557 47944 189 253359403762 149338 2613 342 120 — — — — — —
202321 A+2 teams — 289262 47728 221073 86 179251313564 134262 378 244 45 — — — — — —
202321 A+2 teams — 289252 561237 31813 86 222314377691 155295 2811 309 95 — — — — — —
202422 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 406371 621146 251506 96 167231267498 100259 376 220 27 — — — — — —
202422 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 406357 771467 391076 96 216303347651 132287 2610 293 83 — — — — — —
202523 AA2 teams — 271253 521203 12752 93 206247289536 83275 284 236 39 — — — — — —
202523 AA2 teams — 271246 581403 19602 93 236296329625 93296 227 281 73 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202624 MLBSD — 257239 45914 14792 52 188239285524 96259 315 238 40 -17 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725 MLBSD 31% 310285 561116 19923 63 196254305559 109263 306 250 50 -18 +0 +0 +1 +9 -0.8
202826 MLBSD 45% 365335 671327 231074 73 200260313573 113265 296 257 55 -19 +0 +0 +1 +10 -0.7
202927 MLBSD 49% 388356 721428 251124 73 202262320583 118267 296 260 57 -19 +0 +0 +1 +11 -0.6
203028 MLBSD 52% 402368 741528 271164 73 201263318581 117267 297 261 58 -19 +0 -1 +1 +11 -0.7
202725 MLBSD 31% 9689 17302 6291 21 191250292542 101260 306 240 42 -6 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.3
202826 MLBSD 45% 163150 30613 10482 31 200259313573 113262 296 246 47 -10 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.5
202927 MLBSD 49% 191175 35714 12552 42 200259320579 120263 296 250 49 -11 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.5
203028 MLBSD 52% 207189 37714 14602 42 196259307565 111263 297 250 50 -12 +0 -0 +1 +6 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 657603 11923313 421927 136 197258310568 113264 296 248 48 -39 +0 -0 +2 +19 -1.8
/ 162G— — 650597 11823313 421907 136 198259312570 114264 296 248 48 -38 +0 -0 +2 +18 -1.8
Career— — 33263030 5661101957 231105835 8239 187252292545 105263 327 244 45 -207 +1 -1 +12 +94 -10.3
/ 162G— — 650592 11021411 452077 168 186252291542 105262 327 244 45 -40 +0 -0 +2 +18 -2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201917 ROKDSL Padres — 210166 32610 40432 41 193356241597 48256 2019 292 82 -4 +0 — — +6 0.2
202119 ROKACL Padres — 6654 13812 9201 20 241354537891 296333 3014 377 147 +3 +0 — — +2 0.6
202220 ALake Elsinore Storm — 318270 691346 42794 188 256364400764 144337 2513 344 122 +8 +0 — — +9 1.8
202220 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 4438 9211 5150 01 237326421747 184348 3411 324 106 +0 -0 — — +1 0.1
202321 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 272241 531237 25753 66 220300382682 162286 289 303 90 -3 -1 — — +8 0.4
202321 ROKACL Padres — 1711 3000 660 20 273529273802 600 3535 406 169 +1 +0 — — +0 0.2
202422 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 406357 771467 391076 96 216303347651 132287 2610 293 83 -8 -1 — — +12 0.3
202523 AASan Antonio Missions — 140125 25802 12381 41 200275312587 112267 279 265 61 -6 +0 — — +4 -0.2
202523 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 131121 33601 7221 52 273318347665 74320 175 297 86 -2 +0 — — +4 0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA
91,7564716227293367+6+83.03.5
/162664186+2.4+3.01.1pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10
career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA
112,352344237273341+10+211.02.7
/162664101+3.0+5.80.3pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
26621312200257316+2+1-1.2-0.6
/1626641312+2.4+1.0-1.2pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Nerwilian Cedeño (OGILVIE) 24 28 37 50 41 186/239/283 97259 45 31% 6% 40 -1.0 ————————— —————————
✕Grae Kessinger
2022 · AA 		24 37→28 42→45 48→50 40 187/248/281 94262 1115 32% 6% 43 -2.2 194/265/312 118265 1414 31% 8% 59 -1.1 189/267/30011124911727%9%56-0.5
✕J.T. Arruda
2022 · A 		24 39→41 38→40 54→55 42 186/251/269 83279 513 33% 8% 41 -2.3 201/275/292 91299 620 32% 9% 58 -1.2 205/267/2979328192329%7%52-0.8
✕Arquímedes Gamboa
2022 · AAA 		24 39→44 41→40 52→50 47 189/268/283 94275 814 32% 10% 53 -1.5 205/285/303 98305 814 32% 10% 65 -0.7 198/284/2909229881533%10%58-0.7
✕Ismael Alcantara
2023 · AA 		24 38→28 45 50 37 195/254/318 123282 1312 35% 6% 56 -1.3 212/270/305 93320 917 34% 6% 59 -1.1 219/278/2927333972435%6%54-0.9
✕Oliver Dominguez
2013 · A 		24 40 40 50→45 45 194/265/290 97275 710 31% 8% 53 -1.5 200/256/298 98292 87 32% 7% 50 -1.7 161/205/243822308033%5%13-1.0
✕Jan Vázquez
2015 · AA 		24 41 43→40 45 38 204/259/309 105286 129 32% 5% 56 -1.3 208/280/299 91289 78 29% 7% 62 -0.9 211/289/296862827726%7%61-0.3
✕Jackson Cluff
2021 · A 		24 39→29 42→45 51→60 39 193/259/298 104285 912 34% 6% 53 -1.5 180/251/274 94284 813 37% 7% 44 -2.1 181/273/314133265152835%10%61-0.6
✕Nick Meyer
2021 · A 		24 35 36→40 52→50 40 172/231/233 61252 415 32% 6% 24 -3.6 212/280/299 87278 914 25% 8% 62 -0.9 207/281/29083267101625%8%57-0.6
✕Julian Escobedo
2023 · AA 		25 37→34 41→40 48→50 40 186/251/287 100259 914 31% 6% 46 -2.0 205/270/324 119291 1114 32% 7% 64 -0.8 182/254/327145270142036%6%54-0.3
✕Zavier Warren
2023 · AA 		24 36→39 46→45 52→45 45 188/258/312 125244 147 29% 8% 56 -1.3 189/256/304 115265 137 32% 8% 53 -1.5 177/246/28210525412733%8%42-1.6
✕Chase Simpson
2016 · A 		24 41→37 42→45 51→45 45 199/269/307 108284 96 32% 8% 59 -1.1 190/254/306 116279 106 34% 7% 53 -1.5 164/230/28412023810334%7%34-1.1
✕Riccio Torrez
2014 · AA 		24 39→33 40 47→45 40 193/253/283 89242 85 23% 4% 46 -2.0 204/256/297 93274 78 27% 5% 50 -1.7 159/184/229692284432%2%-3-1.0
✕Claudio Finol
2023 · AA 		23 38 37→40 50→45 40 187/240/263 77259 48 29% 5% 35 -2.8 204/263/296 92292 810 31% 7% 53 -1.5 181/246/2587726091232%7%35-0.7
✕Cody Bohanek
2019 · AAA 		24 39→36 38→40 47→50 41 189/267/262 73276 710 32% 7% 48 -1.9 173/266/261 88295 812 40% 8% 48 -1.9 147/253/2379026881643%8%36-1.6
✕Jacob Pearson
2022 · AA 		24 37→39 44→40 49→50 41 191/244/304 113257 1111 30% 6% 47 -1.9 196/261/302 106280 917 31% 7% 54 -1.4 179/251/2759625782231%8%40-1.0
✕Mario Yepez
2012 · A 		24 41 40 48→45 39 203/246/293 90260 76 25% 4% 44 -2.1 204/263/288 84291 75 30% 7% 51 -1.7 176/241/243672496230%7%29-0.9
✕Nick Quintana
2022 · A 		24 33→39 43→45 47→45 45 172/254/283 111243 116 33% 9% 47 -1.9 188/273/293 105265 115 31% 9% 58 -1.2 172/265/2689524010330%10%45-1.0
✕Michael Suiter
2016 · A 		24 40→38 38→40 49→50 37 196/245/270 75262 612 27% 4% 39 -2.5 211/265/302 91297 810 30% 5% 56 -1.3 210/270/3019130010832%6%55-0.5
✕Nicholas Romero
2011 · A 		24 41→42 40 49→45 44 201/266/296 95277 75 29% 7% 55 -1.4 187/250/267 80265 47 29% 7% 40 -2.4 153/221/219662182529%7%14-3.2
✕Joseph Rosa
2021 · A 		24 43→44 39→40 43→50 42 205/269/287 83288 69 30% 7% 54 -1.4 211/277/318 107313 917 33% 7% 65 -0.7 200/276/2999930682134%8%58-0.7