Cal Conley
SS Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAMississippi B… | 515 | .242/.308/.312 | 3 | 42 | 56 | — | .229/.273/.298 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AAATL | 524 | .196/.255/.238 | 1 | 21 | 16 | — | .175/.217/.212 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AAATL | 340 | .239/.314/.405 | 9 | 19 | 61 | — | .210/.269/.343 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBATL | 16 | .196/.243/.274 | 0 | 1 | 45 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBATL | 58 | .196/.244/.275 | 1 | 2 | 46 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 161 | 140 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 308 | 307 | 615 | 93 | 262 | 20 | 9 | 283 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 199 | 177 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 50 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 260 | 338 | 429 | 768 | 169 | 328 | 25 | 10 | 341 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 349 | 309 | 76 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 59 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 246 | 313 | 414 | 727 | 168 | 268 | 17 | 7 | 314 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 101 | 86 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 267 | 376 | 465 | 841 | 198 | 333 | 21 | 13 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 599 | 535 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 133 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 219 | 299 | 286 | 585 | 67 | 285 | 22 | 9 | 271 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 462 | 112 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 91 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 242 | 308 | 312 | 620 | 69 | 292 | 18 | 8 | 280 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 312 | 607 | 62 | 364 | 29 | 6 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 463 | 90 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 103 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 194 | 254 | 235 | 489 | 41 | 247 | 20 | 7 | 226 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 223 | 200 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 240 | 303 | 370 | 673 | 130 | 308 | 24 | 6 | 296 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 117 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 336 | 475 | 811 | 238 | 311 | 30 | 10 | 355 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 161 | 144 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 174 | 252 | 236 | 488 | 62 | 238 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 199 | 186 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 199 | 247 | 328 | 575 | 129 | 281 | 34 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 349 | 317 | 70 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 76 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 221 | 271 | 353 | 625 | 132 | 247 | 22 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 599 | 551 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 157 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 200 | 260 | 263 | 523 | 64 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 477 | 109 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 229 | 273 | 298 | 570 | 69 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 312 | 607 | 62 | 333 | 35 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 475 | 82 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 124 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 173 | 214 | 208 | 422 | 36 | 228 | 24 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 223 | 204 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 65 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 216 | 266 | 319 | 585 | 103 | 286 | 29 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 117 | 105 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 276 | 390 | 666 | 190 | 278 | 37 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 161 | 144 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 174 | 252 | 236 | 488 | 62 | 242 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 161 | 140 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 308 | 307 | 615 | 93 | 262 | 20 | 9 | 283 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 649 | 597 | 126 | 19 | 7 | 15 | 32 | 170 | 9 | 45 | 10 | 211 | 262 | 342 | 603 | 131 | 265 | 26 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 649 | 572 | 145 | 25 | 10 | 18 | 57 | 130 | 9 | 45 | 10 | 253 | 331 | 427 | 757 | 173 | 295 | 20 | 9 | 332 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 599 | 551 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 157 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 200 | 260 | 263 | 523 | 64 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 599 | 535 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 133 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 219 | 299 | 286 | 585 | 67 | 285 | 22 | 9 | 271 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 477 | 109 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 229 | 273 | 298 | 570 | 69 | 286 | 21 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 462 | 112 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 91 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 242 | 308 | 312 | 620 | 69 | 292 | 18 | 8 | 280 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 492 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 130 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 175 | 215 | 211 | 426 | 37 | 234 | 25 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 524 | 479 | 94 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 108 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 196 | 255 | 238 | 493 | 42 | 250 | 21 | 7 | 227 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 309 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 108 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 210 | 269 | 346 | 616 | 136 | 297 | 32 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 340 | 301 | 72 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 89 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 239 | 314 | 405 | 720 | 166 | 309 | 26 | 8 | 316 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 161 | 145 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 172 | 252 | 234 | 486 | 62 | 238 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 649 | 603 | 126 | 19 | 7 | 15 | 32 | 170 | 9 | 45 | 10 | 209 | 262 | 338 | 600 | 129 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 599 | 549 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 157 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 200 | 260 | 264 | 524 | 64 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 481 | 109 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 227 | 273 | 295 | 568 | 69 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 494 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 130 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 174 | 215 | 211 | 425 | 36 | 231 | 25 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 312 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 108 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 208 | 269 | 343 | 612 | 135 | 283 | 32 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 515 | 481 | 109 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 227 | 273 | 295 | 568 | 69 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 494 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 130 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 174 | 215 | 211 | 425 | 36 | 231 | 25 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 312 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 108 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 208 | 269 | 343 | 612 | 135 | 283 | 32 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | ATL | 10% | 380 | 354 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 104 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 196 | 243 | 274 | 518 | 79 | 263 | 27 | 5 | 235 | 45 | -25 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | ATL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 243 | 274 | 518 | 79 | 263 | 25 | 6 | 235 | 45 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 27% | 212 | 197 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 58 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 196 | 244 | 275 | 520 | 79 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 236 | 46 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 27% | 58 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 244 | 275 | 520 | 79 | 264 | 28 | 5 | 236 | 46 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 259 | 296 | 555 | 93 | 270 | 28 | 5 | 236 | 47 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 123 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 179 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 203 | 258 | 294 | 553 | 91 | 270 | 28 | 5 | 236 | 47 | -42 | +4 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3155 | 2911 | 587 | 103 | 19 | 33 | 166 | 820 | 37 | 180 | 47 | 202 | 254 | 284 | 538 | 82 | 267 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 47 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 121 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 169 | 8 | 37 | 10 | 202 | 254 | 285 | 539 | 83 | 266 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 47 | -42 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 223 PAwOBA .290 → .250 (−40)K% 24.2% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.003 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.003 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.003 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .290 → .250; ISO .130 → .103; BABIP .308 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 117 PAwOBA .345 → .276 (−69)K% 29.9% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 16.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 2.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.93% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .345 → .276; ISO .238 → .189; BABIP .311 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 507 PAwOBA .221 → .190 (−31)K% 20.3% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.32% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.71% | ÷1.036 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.108 | ×0.880 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.28% | ÷0.934 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.24% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 122, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .221 → .190; ISO .041 → .037; BABIP .247 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 17 PAwOBA .269 → .216 (−53)K% 29.4% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 26.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .269 → .216; ISO .062 → .042; BABIP .364 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMississippi Braves · 515 PAwOBA .276 → .251 (−25)K% 17.7% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.67% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.35% | ÷1.025 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.19% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.45% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.899 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.27% | ÷0.997 | ×0.880 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.906 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 99, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .276 → .251; ISO .069 → .069; BABIP .292 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMississippi Braves · 599 PAwOBA .263 → .236 (−28)K% 22.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.20% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.943 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 21.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .263 → .236; ISO .067 → .065; BABIP .285 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 349 PAwOBA .311 → .263 (−48)K% 16.9% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.91% | ÷1.050 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.16% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.127 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 110, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .311 → .263; ISO .168 → .133; BABIP .268 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Rome Braves · 199 PAwOBA .332 → .257 (−75)K% 25.1% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷0.970 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.05% | ÷1.052 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 20.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.928 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.47% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .332 → .257; ISO .169 → .140; BABIP .328 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).