Deiner Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 26 | INTLCardenales de… | 45 | .200/.317/.200 | 0 | 0 | 46 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTLTigres de Ara… | 159 | .310/.368/.423 | 2 | 5 | 120 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 102 | .255/.300/.319 | 0 | 3 | 73 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox | — | 275 | 220 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 48 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 250 | 393 | 341 | 734 | 91 | 316 | 17 | 15 | 342 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 131 | 116 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 267 | 341 | 336 | 677 | 69 | 341 | 19 | 8 | 307 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 97 | 88 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 284 | 344 | 420 | 764 | 136 | 368 | 21 | 4 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 151 | 141 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 270 | 313 | 326 | 640 | 57 | 355 | 23 | 4 | 290 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 132 | 124 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 282 | 321 | 395 | 716 | 113 | 355 | 22 | 5 | 317 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 348 | 312 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 77 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 244 | 306 | 343 | 649 | 99 | 312 | 22 | 7 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 255 | 231 | 57 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 247 | 298 | 316 | 614 | 69 | 329 | 26 | 6 | 273 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 77 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 257 | 276 | 392 | 668 | 135 | 270 | 12 | 3 | 291 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 119 | 109 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 312 | 359 | 349 | 708 | 37 | 362 | 13 | 7 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 458 | 738 | 208 | 312 | 28 | 4 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 168 | 159 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 226 | 263 | 371 | 635 | 145 | 296 | 26 | 4 | 279 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 29 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 280 | 379 | 400 | 779 | 120 | 389 | 24 | 14 | 352 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 99 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 236 | 306 | 270 | 576 | 34 | 339 | 28 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 130 | 200 | 174 | 374 | 43 | 176 | 24 | 8 | 180 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 92 | 89 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 187 | 258 | 445 | 90 | 280 | 41 | 2 | 196 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 81 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 176 | 247 | 243 | 490 | 68 | 255 | 28 | 9 | 228 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 107 | 96 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 219 | 279 | 260 | 539 | 42 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 45 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 317 | 200 | 517 | 241 | 13 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 159 | 142 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 310 | 368 | 423 | 790 | 113 | 408 | 23 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 102 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 300 | 319 | 619 | 64 | 324 | 21 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 275 | 233 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 59 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 172 | 290 | 236 | 526 | 64 | 215 | 21 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 131 | 120 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 256 | 250 | 506 | 50 | 276 | 27 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 97 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 213 | 271 | 315 | 585 | 101 | 298 | 30 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 151 | 143 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 224 | 260 | 266 | 526 | 42 | 344 | 34 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 132 | 126 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 262 | 290 | 373 | 663 | 111 | 348 | 29 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 348 | 321 | 65 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 202 | 247 | 277 | 524 | 75 | 290 | 33 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 255 | 236 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 83 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 237 | 274 | 288 | 562 | 51 | 339 | 33 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 77 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 240 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 133 | 252 | 17 | 1 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 458 | 738 | 208 | 279 | 32 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 168 | 161 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 193 | 222 | 292 | 513 | 99 | 283 | 32 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 346 | 656 | 115 | 326 | 34 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 25 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 160 | 167 | 327 | 42 | 175 | 28 | 4 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 92 | 90 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 122 | 132 | 189 | 321 | 67 | 245 | 51 | 1 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 81 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 130 | 173 | 182 | 355 | 52 | 222 | 42 | 5 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 275 | 233 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 59 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 172 | 290 | 236 | 526 | 64 | 225 | 21 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox | — | 275 | 220 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 48 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 250 | 393 | 341 | 734 | 91 | 316 | 17 | 15 | 342 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 131 | 120 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 256 | 250 | 506 | 50 | 286 | 27 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 131 | 116 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 267 | 341 | 336 | 677 | 69 | 341 | 19 | 8 | 307 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 97 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 213 | 271 | 315 | 585 | 101 | 317 | 30 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 97 | 88 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 284 | 344 | 420 | 764 | 136 | 368 | 21 | 4 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 269 | 65 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 90 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 242 | 274 | 316 | 590 | 74 | 354 | 32 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 265 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 64 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 275 | 317 | 358 | 675 | 83 | 355 | 23 | 5 | 303 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 348 | 321 | 65 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 202 | 247 | 277 | 524 | 75 | 302 | 33 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 348 | 312 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 77 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 244 | 306 | 343 | 649 | 99 | 312 | 22 | 7 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 451 | 424 | 100 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 130 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 236 | 265 | 307 | 572 | 71 | 324 | 29 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 451 | 414 | 110 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 90 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 266 | 311 | 338 | 649 | 72 | 327 | 20 | 6 | 288 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 321 | 302 | 61 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 202 | 245 | 318 | 562 | 116 | 294 | 32 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 321 | 297 | 70 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 236 | 288 | 350 | 639 | 114 | 318 | 26 | 5 | 286 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL MLE | 4 teams | — | 305 | 288 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 136 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 125 | 163 | 174 | 336 | 49 | 232 | 45 | 4 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL RAW | 4 teams | — | 305 | 282 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 85 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 184 | 236 | 248 | 484 | 64 | 260 | 28 | 6 | 220 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | INTL MLE | Cardenales de Lara | — | 45 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 317 | 200 | 517 | 241 | 13 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2020 | 26 | INTL RAW | Cardenales de Lara | — | 45 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 317 | 200 | 517 | 241 | 13 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL MLE | Tigres de Aragua | — | 159 | 142 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 310 | 368 | 423 | 790 | 113 | 408 | 23 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL RAW | Tigres de Aragua | — | 159 | 142 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 310 | 368 | 423 | 790 | 113 | 408 | 23 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 102 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 300 | 319 | 619 | 64 | 324 | 21 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 102 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 300 | 319 | 619 | 64 | 324 | 21 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 275 | 234 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 59 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 171 | 290 | 235 | 525 | 64 | 215 | 21 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 131 | 121 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 198 | 256 | 248 | 504 | 50 | 276 | 27 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 97 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 211 | 271 | 311 | 582 | 100 | 298 | 30 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 269 | 65 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 90 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 242 | 274 | 316 | 590 | 74 | 346 | 32 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 348 | 326 | 65 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 199 | 247 | 273 | 520 | 74 | 290 | 33 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 451 | 431 | 100 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 130 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 232 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 70 | 319 | 29 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 321 | 301 | 61 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 203 | 245 | 319 | 563 | 116 | 288 | 32 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL MLE | 4 teams | — | 305 | 289 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 136 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 125 | 163 | 173 | 336 | 48 | 227 | 45 | 4 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2517 | 2317 | 485 | 77 | 22 | 18 | 120 | 763 | 38 | 94 | 43 | 209 | 260 | 285 | 545 | 76 | 302 | 30 | 5 | 198 | 20 | -239 | +2 | +0 | +9 | +55 | -17.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 197 | 10 | 24 | 11 | 211 | 261 | 289 | 551 | 79 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 198 | 20 | -62 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -4.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 92 PAwOBA .191 → .139 (−51)K% 41.3% → 50.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.30% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 50.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.17% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 16.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.80% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .191 → .139; ISO .090 → .059; BABIP .280 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 81 PAwOBA .223 → .155 (−68)K% 28.4% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷0.968 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 16.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.070 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .223 → .155; ISO .068 → .044; BABIP .255 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 25 PAwOBA .175 → .155 (−21)K% 24.0% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 11.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .175 → .155; ISO .043 → .040; BABIP .176 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 168 PAwOBA .273 → .230 (−43)K% 25.6% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.60% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.17% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 17.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.48% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 2.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .273 → .230; ISO .145 → .111; BABIP .296 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 29 PAwOBA .344 → .246 (−98)K% 24.1% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.939 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 24.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.102 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .344 → .246; ISO .120 → .081; BABIP .389 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 25 PAwOBA .313 → .240 (−73)K% 28.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 2.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 17.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 9.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 3.86% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .313 → .240; ISO .208 → .140; BABIP .312 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 255 PAwOBA .268 → .248 (−20)K% 25.9% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.88% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.27% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.027 | 30.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×1.027 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×1.027 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.43% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .268 → .248; ISO .069 → .056; BABIP .329 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Salem Red Sox · 77 PAwOBA .283 → .248 (−35)K% 11.7% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.60% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .283 → .248; ISO .135 → .119; BABIP .270 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .