Cam Collier

3B Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 22 L/R 6'1" / 210 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#797ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419A+CIN507.248/.359/.44320276—.205/.295/.338
202520AA/A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs491.268/.388/.3735288—.246/.324/.337
202621AACIN576.209/.289/.36818153—.182/.245/.311
2027PROJMLE22MLBCIN4.207/.275/.3310069-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBCIN177.214/.283/.3565177-0.0
2029PROJ47% MLB24MLBCIN250.221/.290/.37781840.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Z-Con%73
Whiff%58
ISO57
K%40
BB%30
wOBA24
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%
CompsJohn Whittleman (age 22) · Daniel Palka (age 22) · Isan Díaz (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .275 / .331
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%7
BABIP275
ISO111
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.30.50.40.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$2M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$4M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$5M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.8M $5M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKACL Reds — 3527 10102 761 02 3705146301.144 259421 1720 497 140 — — — — — —
202318 ADaytona Tortugas — 461390 962126 571068 51 246354356710 110317 2312 323 63 — — — — — —
202419 A+Dayton Dragons — 507427 10621120 661278 21 248359443802 194301 2513 355 76 — — — — — —
202520 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 308259 681602 45863 01 263378347725 85384 2815 336 78 — — — — — —
202520 A+Dayton Dragons — 4641 12201 5100 00 293370415784 122367 2211 354 82 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Reds — 4233 13311 980 10 3945246361.160 242500 1921 502 118 — — — — — —
202520 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 9577 17501 16242 11 221368325693 104308 2517 327 108 — — — — — —
202621 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 576513 10726118 491509 10 209289368657 160254 269 294 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEACL Reds — 3530 9102 491 02 300400533933 233333 2611 375 140 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 461406 841624 411438 51 207292286578 79294 319 262 63 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 507444 9118113 491608 21 205295338633 133275 3210 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 308276 661402 281043 01 239316312628 72374 349 284 78 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 4642 11201 4130 00 262326381707 119344 289 289 82 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Reds — 4236 10211 6110 10 278381472853 194371 2614 342 118 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 576527 9624114 351839 10 182245311556 129241 326 246 53 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEACL Reds — 3530 9102 491 02 300400533933 233368 2611 375 140 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWACL Reds — 3527 10102 761 02 3705146301.144 259421 1720 497 140 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 461406 841624 411438 51 207292286578 79302 319 262 63 — — — — — —
202318 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 461390 962126 571068 51 246354356710 110317 2312 323 63 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 507444 9118113 491608 21 205295338633 133282 3210 280 76 — — — — — —
202419 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 507427 10621120 661278 21 248359443802 194301 2513 355 76 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLE4 teams — 491438 1072214 471595 22 244324326651 82373 3210 291 83 — — — — — —
202520 AA RAW4 teams — 491410 1102615 751285 22 268388373761 105378 2615 350 83 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 576527 9624114 351839 10 182245311556 129245 326 246 53 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 576513 10726118 491509 10 209289368657 160254 269 294 53 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEACL Reds — 3530 9102 491 02 300400533933 233333 2611 375 140 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 461409 841624 411438 51 205292284576 78294 319 262 63 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 507445 9118113 491608 21 204295337632 133275 3210 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLE4 teams — 491436 1072214 471595 22 245324328652 83370 3210 291 83 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 576527 9624114 351839 10 182245311556 129241 326 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 507445 9118113 491608 21 204295337632 133275 3210 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLE4 teams — 491436 1072214 471595 22 245324328652 83370 3210 291 83 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 576527 9624114 351839 10 182245311556 129241 326 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLECIN 2% 643583 11927113 471898 21 205274324598 119274 297 270 69 -24 +0 -2 +2 +14 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXCIN 2% 44 0000 010 00 207275331606 124275 250 273 69 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLECIN 35% 504455 9721113 381456 21 212281348629 136277 298 282 77 -14 +0 -1 +2 +11 -0.2
202924 MLB MLECIN 47% 537485 10522116 411516 21 218288367655 149279 288 293 84 -10 +0 -1 +2 +12 0.3
203025 MLB MLECIN 52% 560504 11223118 441557 21 222292380672 158280 288 299 89 -7 +0 -1 +2 +12 0.6
203126 MLB MLECIN 54% 578521 11624119 451597 21 224295387682 163281 288 303 91 -6 +0 -1 +2 +13 0.8
203227 MLB MLECIN 54% 582524 11724119 461597 11 224295386681 161280 278 303 91 -6 -0 -1 +2 +13 0.8
203328 MLB MLECIN 54% 576520 11624119 451596 10 222293381674 159279 288 300 89 -7 +0 -2 +2 +12 0.6
203429 MLB MLECIN 53% 562507 11223118 441576 10 220290374664 155277 288 296 87 -9 +0 -2 +2 +12 0.3
203530 MLB MLECIN 52% 550496 10822117 431556 10 216286366652 150275 288 291 83 -11 +0 -3 +2 +12 0.0
203631 MLB MLECIN 52% 533482 10321116 411525 10 212281356637 144272 298 285 79 -13 +0 -4 +2 +12 -0.3
202823 MLB CTXCIN 35% 177160 34705 13512 10 214283356639 142277 297 286 77 -5 +0 -0 +1 +4 -0.0
202924 MLB CTXCIN 47% 250226 501018 19703 10 221290377667 157280 288 297 84 -5 +0 -0 +1 +5 0.1
203025 MLB CTXCIN 52% 290262 5912110 23813 10 225295391685 166281 288 304 89 -4 +0 -0 +1 +6 0.3
203126 MLB CTXCIN 54% 314282 6413111 25864 10 227298399696 171282 278 309 91 -3 +0 -0 +1 +7 0.5
203227 MLB CTXCIN 54% 316284 6513111 25864 10 227298397694 170282 278 308 91 -3 +0 -0 +1 +7 0.4
203328 MLB CTXCIN 54% 313281 6413111 25864 10 225296392687 166280 278 305 89 -4 +0 -1 +1 +7 0.3
203429 MLB CTXCIN 53% 298270 6012110 23833 10 222292385677 162279 288 301 87 -5 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.2
203530 MLB CTXCIN 52% 288261 5711010 22813 10 219289376665 157276 288 296 83 -6 +0 -2 +1 +6 0.0
203631 MLB CTXCIN 52% 277251 541109 21793 00 215283366649 151273 298 290 79 -7 +0 -2 +1 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 25232277 507102685 19670329 80 223293385677 162281 288 301 81 -41 +2 -7 +9 +55 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 13126222 501817 20 223291387678 164282 288 301 81 -11 +0 -2 +2 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 72626529 141129414196 578210890 2411 216289355644 139284 298 287 81 -92 +1 -15 +19 +112 2.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650584 12626118 521898 21 216289356645 140283 298 287 81 -11 +0 -2 +2 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 576 PAwOBA .289 → .246 (−43)K% 26.0% → 31.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.04%÷1.000×1.220——31.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.51%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0426.03%
HBP% /PA1.56%—×0.840—×1.0421.37%
Singles /BIP17.08%÷1.000×0.920×1.001×1.04216.39%
Doubles /BIP7.16%÷1.000×0.910×1.001×1.0426.80%
Triples /BIP0.28%÷1.000×0.880×1.001×1.0420.25%
Home runs /BIP4.96%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0424.13%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .289 → .246; ISO .160 → .135; BABIP .254 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 308 PAwOBA .327 → .284 (−43)K% 27.9% → 33.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.92%÷1.010×1.220——33.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.96%÷1.087×0.680—×1.0509.17%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.840—×1.0500.86%
Singles /BIP28.90%÷0.963×0.920×1.006×1.05029.15%
Doubles /BIP9.25%÷1.092×0.910×1.006×1.0508.14%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.001×0.880×1.006×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.16%÷1.021×0.800—×1.0500.95%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .327 → .284; ISO .085 → .074; BABIP .384 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 46 PAwOBA .345 → .289 (−56)K% 21.7% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.74%÷0.999×1.270——27.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.87%÷1.006×0.710—×1.0277.88%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP29.03%÷0.987×0.920—×1.02727.80%
Doubles /BIP6.45%÷0.928×0.810—×1.0275.78%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.23%÷1.124×0.800—×1.0272.36%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .289; ISO .122 → .093; BABIP .367 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 42 PAwOBA .489 → .342 (−147)K% 19.0% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.05%÷1.010×1.440——27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.43%÷0.931×0.620—×0.98514.05%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP32.00%÷1.039×0.820—×0.98524.88%
Doubles /BIP12.00%÷0.963×0.720—×0.9858.83%
Triples /BIP4.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9852.47%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷1.252×0.780—×0.9852.46%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .489 → .342; ISO .242 → .158; BABIP .500 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 507 PAwOBA .349 → .280 (−69)K% 25.0% → 31.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.05%÷1.006×1.270——31.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.82%÷0.976×0.710—×1.0429.72%
HBP% /PA1.58%—×0.790—×1.0421.30%
Singles /BIP21.33%÷1.023×0.920×1.012×1.04220.22%
Doubles /BIP7.00%÷0.941×0.810×1.012×1.0426.35%
Triples /BIP0.33%÷1.030×0.850×1.012×1.0420.29%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷1.285×0.800—×1.0424.33%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .349 → .280; ISO .194 → .136; BABIP .301 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 461 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−57)K% 23.0% → 31.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.99%÷1.006×1.360——31.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.36%÷1.006×0.690—×1.0458.87%
HBP% /PA1.74%—×0.780—×1.0451.41%
Singles /BIP23.59%÷1.032×0.920×1.040×1.04522.85%
Doubles /BIP7.39%÷1.100×0.830×1.040×1.0456.07%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.083×0.910×1.040×1.0450.64%
Home runs /BIP2.11%÷1.060×0.800—×1.0451.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .110 → .086; BABIP .317 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 35 PAwOBA .479 → .375 (−103)K% 17.1% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.14%÷1.005×1.440——24.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.14%÷1.011×0.620—×1.02210.75%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.720—×1.0222.10%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.022×0.820—×1.02227.33%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷1.035×0.720—×1.0223.39%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.983×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP9.52%÷0.970×0.780—×1.0227.83%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .479 → .375; ISO .259 → .218; BABIP .421 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .