Drew Ward
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 322 | .274/.328/.520 | 17 | 1 | 67 | — | .204/.244/.368 |
| 2021 | 26 | AADET | 316 | .240/.330/.458 | 16 | 1 | 70 | — | .197/.269/.352 |
| 2022 | 27 | INTLMayos de Navo… | 53 | .214/.377/.238 | 0 | 0 | 93 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 199 | 168 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 292 | 402 | 387 | 789 | 95 | 390 | 22 | 13 | 363 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 478 | 431 | 116 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 121 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 269 | 341 | 413 | 754 | 144 | 353 | 25 | 9 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 426 | 377 | 94 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 110 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 249 | 329 | 358 | 687 | 109 | 333 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 16 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 312 | 385 | 697 | 231 | 250 | 50 | 19 | 317 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 43 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 333 | 161 | 495 | 65 | 130 | 21 | 26 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 203 | 178 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 312 | 309 | 621 | 90 | 288 | 25 | 11 | 287 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 268 | 230 | 64 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 378 | 491 | 870 | 213 | 353 | 26 | 13 | 384 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 92 | 81 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 309 | 391 | 383 | 774 | 74 | 417 | 23 | 11 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 480 | 413 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 131 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 331 | 356 | 686 | 121 | 311 | 27 | 11 | 309 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 61 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 185 | 279 | 222 | 501 | 37 | 294 | 33 | 11 | 241 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 380 | 320 | 83 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 95 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 376 | 456 | 833 | 197 | 330 | 25 | 14 | 372 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 117 | 111 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 288 | 325 | 559 | 883 | 270 | 421 | 39 | 5 | 383 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 205 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 330 | 497 | 827 | 232 | 385 | 36 | 7 | 359 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 316 | 275 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 105 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 240 | 330 | 458 | 788 | 218 | 316 | 33 | 10 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 53 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 377 | 238 | 615 | 24 | 310 | 25 | 19 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 199 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 215 | 302 | 282 | 584 | 68 | 322 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 478 | 444 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 166 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 280 | 336 | 616 | 110 | 338 | 35 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 426 | 391 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 155 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 268 | 304 | 572 | 95 | 320 | 36 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 16 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 191 | 75 | 12 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 203 | 184 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 277 | 277 | 554 | 71 | 293 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 268 | 245 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 102 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 292 | 392 | 684 | 163 | 344 | 38 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 480 | 428 | 95 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 156 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 294 | 320 | 615 | 98 | 311 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 61 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 230 | 196 | 426 | 36 | 275 | 38 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 380 | 337 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 117 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 316 | 392 | 707 | 163 | 309 | 31 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 117 | 113 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 222 | 363 | 585 | 168 | 387 | 53 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 205 | 191 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 256 | 372 | 628 | 162 | 349 | 44 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 316 | 284 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 125 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 197 | 269 | 352 | 621 | 155 | 286 | 40 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 199 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 215 | 302 | 282 | 584 | 68 | 327 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 199 | 168 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 292 | 402 | 387 | 789 | 95 | 390 | 22 | 13 | 363 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 478 | 444 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 166 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 280 | 336 | 616 | 110 | 341 | 35 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 478 | 431 | 116 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 121 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 269 | 341 | 413 | 754 | 144 | 353 | 25 | 9 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 485 | 445 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 183 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 265 | 301 | 566 | 94 | 328 | 38 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 485 | 421 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 53 | 127 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 329 | 344 | 674 | 109 | 316 | 26 | 11 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 563 | 513 | 110 | 23 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 198 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 214 | 282 | 329 | 611 | 115 | 321 | 35 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 563 | 489 | 128 | 29 | 0 | 14 | 66 | 142 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 262 | 357 | 407 | 763 | 145 | 340 | 25 | 12 | 344 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 480 | 428 | 95 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 156 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 294 | 320 | 615 | 98 | 320 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 480 | 413 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 131 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 331 | 356 | 686 | 121 | 311 | 27 | 11 | 309 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 393 | 85 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 140 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 216 | 302 | 359 | 660 | 142 | 306 | 32 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 374 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 62 | 115 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 249 | 363 | 422 | 785 | 174 | 325 | 26 | 14 | 354 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 303 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 153 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 165 | 369 | 48 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 296 | 81 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 21 | 120 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 328 | 520 | 848 | 247 | 398 | 37 | 7 | 368 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 316 | 284 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 125 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 197 | 269 | 352 | 621 | 155 | 296 | 40 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 316 | 275 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 105 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 240 | 330 | 458 | 788 | 218 | 316 | 33 | 10 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 53 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 377 | 238 | 615 | 24 | 310 | 25 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 53 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 377 | 238 | 615 | 24 | 310 | 25 | 19 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 199 | 175 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 217 | 302 | 286 | 587 | 69 | 322 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 478 | 441 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 166 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 227 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 111 | 338 | 35 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 485 | 447 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 183 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 265 | 300 | 564 | 94 | 315 | 38 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 563 | 510 | 110 | 23 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 198 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 216 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 116 | 322 | 35 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 480 | 433 | 95 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 156 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 294 | 316 | 611 | 97 | 311 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 390 | 85 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 140 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 302 | 362 | 663 | 144 | 304 | 32 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 302 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 153 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 250 | 374 | 624 | 166 | 363 | 48 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 316 | 285 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 125 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 196 | 269 | 351 | 620 | 154 | 286 | 40 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3337 | 3029 | 648 | 128 | 10 | 69 | 247 | 1197 | 40 | 10 | 14 | 214 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 117 | 325 | 36 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -136 | -4 | +0 | +12 | +72 | -5.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 126 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 233 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 214 | 282 | 329 | 611 | 115 | 325 | 36 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -26 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 316 PAwOBA .340 → .271 (−69)K% 33.2% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.23% | ÷1.026 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.44% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.94% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 21.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.935 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.41% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 6.81% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .340 → .271; ISO .218 → .161; BABIP .316 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 205 PAwOBA .351 → .272 (−79)K% 36.1% → 44.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.10% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.83% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.52% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 21.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.61% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 10.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .351 → .272; ISO .232 → .163; BABIP .385 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 117 PAwOBA .372 → .259 (−113)K% 39.3% → 53.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.32% | ÷0.953 | ×1.290 | — | — | 53.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷0.990 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 3.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.69% | ÷0.959 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 26.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷0.976 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.31% | ÷0.962 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 10.31% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .259; ISO .270 → .176; BABIP .421 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 380 PAwOBA .363 → .304 (−59)K% 25.0% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.47% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 21.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.78% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.78% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .363 → .304; ISO .197 → .167; BABIP .330 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 61 PAwOBA .235 → .200 (−35)K% 32.8% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.79% | ÷1.044 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.205 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .200; ISO .037 → .033; BABIP .294 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 480 PAwOBA .306 → .276 (−30)K% 27.3% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.29% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .306 → .276; ISO .121 → .104; BABIP .311 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Potomac Nationals · 268 PAwOBA .373 → .297 (−76)K% 26.1% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.12% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷1.061 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.88% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .373 → .297; ISO .213 → .169; BABIP .353 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 203 PAwOBA .282 → .244 (−37)K% 25.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.12% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.84% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 23.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.33% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .244; ISO .090 → .066; BABIP .288 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .