Anderson Carias

P DSL LAD Bautista

Age 18 RHP ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	11	11	34	7.22	3.25	19.9%	11.5%	—	K 13.5% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	18	MLBLAD	4	4	20	5.09	5.09	19.6%	13.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBLAD	3	3	16	4.89	4.81	20.6%	11.8%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNelfy Ynfante (age 18) · Jharold Clemente (age 20) · Yaqui Rivera (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%19.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	34	156	31	18	1	100%	3.1	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	0.9%	7.22	4.28	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	34	156	31	18	1	100%	3.1	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	0.9%	7.22	4.28	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	34	156	31	18	1	100%	3.1	19.9%	11.5%	8.3%	0.6%	7.22	3.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	LAD	4	4	20	84	17	11	2	100%	5.0	19.6%	13.2%	6.4%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	LAD	6	6	32	134	28	16	4	100%	5.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.81	+0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	LAD	3	3	16	68	14	8	2	100%	5.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	16	66	14	8	2	100%	3.9	20.6%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	179	102	26	100%	4.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		11	11	34	156	21	23	1	100%	3.1	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	0.9%	7.22	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	927	125	134	8	100%	3.1	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	0.9%	7.22	4.28	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Carias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.6%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.81	20.6%	8.7%	32	-0.28	—	—	—
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	86
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	85
Yaqui Rivera R 2021 · 3.92 FIP	18	SP	3.92	18.3%	13.5%	1.2%	.314	3.82	21.7%	6.7%	139	-0.10	3.67	292	85
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	84
Alexander Almonte R 2024 · 5.69 FIP	17	SP	5.69	16.2%	13.8%	4.0%	.250	4.82	12.6%	-2.8%	75	-0.87	4.27	100	84
Carlos Jimenez R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	17	SP	4.07	18.1%	12.6%	1.7%	.324	4.66	20.9%	5.2%	104	+0.59	4.07	257	84
Claudio Galva R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP	3.97	17.4%	12.6%	1.4%	.255	4.17	15.0%	8.1%	34	+0.20	2.86	113	83
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	82
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	82
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	80
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	80
Carlos Betancourt R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	15.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.293	3.35	19.9%	10.6%	45	-1.12	3.35	188	80
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	80
Jean Munoz R 2021 · 4.96 FIP	18	SP	4.96	16.1%	16.1%	2.2%	.292	3.91	17.3%	2.4%	82	-1.05	3.23	215	79
Xavier Javier R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	14.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.237	5.97	9.5%	-10.6%	100	+1.50	4.47	188	79
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	79
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	79
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	79
Walter Ford R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	18	SP	4.14	15.2%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	5.71	12.4%	5.7%	308	+1.57	4.14	330	79
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.2%	12.4%	1.11	4.97
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57