Axell Herrera

SS DSL Red Sox Red

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	196	.268/.375/.354	2	11	34	—	.169/.255/.215
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	306	.226/.291/.302	2	6	69	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	86	.230/.297/.317	1	2	75	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	182	.234/.302/.329	2	4	80	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%93

Whiff%88

Z-Con%75

Chase%47

Speed42

wOBA38

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEddys Leonard (age 18) · Tyler Rodriguez (age 18) · Aroon Escobar (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 166 proj PA

wRC+69

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .289 / .300

PA166

HR1

K%22

BB%7

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	164	44	8	0	2	25	22	3	11	2	268	375	354	729	85	292	11	13	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	172	29	5	0	1	17	27	3	11	2	169	255	215	470	47	184	14	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	172	29	5	0	1	17	27	3	11	2	169	255	215	470	47	189	14	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	164	44	8	0	2	25	22	3	11	2	268	375	354	729	85	292	11	13	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	174	29	5	0	1	17	27	3	11	2	167	255	213	468	46	184	14	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	196	174	29	5	0	1	17	27	3	11	2	167	255	213	468	46	184	14	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	306	277	62	10	2	2	23	66	3	6	1	226	291	302	594	76	286	22	8	271	69	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	250	226	52	9	1	3	19	54	3	5	1	230	297	317	614	86	288	22	8	279	75	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	376	339	79	13	2	5	29	80	5	8	2	234	302	329	631	95	289	21	8	286	80	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	471	426	101	17	3	7	36	100	6	10	3	237	306	340	646	103	291	21	8	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	538	484	115	19	3	9	42	114	7	12	4	239	309	349	658	110	292	21	8	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.0
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	583	524	126	21	3	11	46	124	8	13	4	241	311	357	668	116	293	21	8	301	90	-7	+1	+0	+6	+13	1.3
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	613	552	134	22	4	12	48	130	8	13	4	242	312	361	673	119	294	21	8	303	91	-7	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.5
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	626	564	138	23	4	13	49	133	8	13	4	243	313	364	677	121	294	21	8	304	92	-6	+1	+0	+7	+14	1.6
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	633	570	139	23	4	13	50	134	8	14	4	243	313	366	679	123	293	21	8	305	92	-6	+1	+0	+7	+14	1.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	634	571	139	23	4	13	50	135	8	13	5	242	312	363	675	121	293	21	8	304	92	-6	+1	+0	+7	+14	1.5
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	629	567	137	23	3	13	49	136	8	13	5	241	310	359	669	118	292	22	8	301	90	-8	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	619	559	133	22	3	12	48	135	7	12	5	238	307	353	660	115	291	22	8	297	87	-9	+0	-1	+7	+13	1.0
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	609	550	129	21	3	11	47	135	7	12	5	236	304	346	650	110	290	22	8	293	85	-11	+0	-2	+7	+13	0.7
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	594	537	124	20	3	10	45	134	7	11	7	232	299	336	635	105	287	23	8	287	81	-14	-1	-3	+6	+13	0.2
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	52%	576	522	119	19	3	9	43	133	6	10	10	226	293	324	618	98	284	23	7	280	76	-17	-2	-4	+6	+12	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	86	79	19	3	1	1	6	18	1	2	0	230	297	317	614	86	288	21	7	279	75	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	182	164	38	6	1	2	14	39	2	4	1	234	302	329	631	95	289	21	8	286	80	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	255	230	54	9	1	4	20	54	3	6	2	237	306	340	646	103	291	21	8	292	84	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	305	274	66	11	2	5	24	65	4	7	2	239	309	349	658	110	292	21	8	297	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	336	303	72	12	2	6	26	71	4	7	2	241	311	357	668	116	293	21	8	301	90	-4	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	349	314	77	13	2	7	27	74	5	8	2	242	312	361	673	119	294	21	8	303	91	-4	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	355	319	78	13	2	7	28	75	5	8	2	243	313	364	677	121	294	21	8	304	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	358	322	78	13	2	7	28	76	5	8	2	243	313	366	679	123	293	21	8	305	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	352	317	77	13	2	7	28	75	4	7	3	242	312	363	675	121	293	21	8	304	92	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	345	311	75	12	2	7	27	74	4	7	3	241	310	359	669	118	292	21	8	301	90	-4	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.7
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	331	298	71	12	2	6	26	72	4	7	3	238	307	353	660	115	291	22	8	297	87	-5	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	321	289	69	11	2	6	25	71	4	6	3	236	304	346	650	110	290	22	8	293	85	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	310	280	65	11	1	5	24	70	3	6	4	232	299	336	635	105	287	23	8	287	81	-7	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	52%	299	272	62	10	1	5	22	69	3	5	5	226	293	324	618	98	284	23	7	280	76	-9	-1	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4184	3772	901	149	23	75	325	903	51	88	34	239	308	350	658	111	293	22	8	297	85	-65	+4	-6	+45	+91	7.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	141	23	4	12	50	140	8	14	5	241	309	355	664	114	295	22	8	297	85	-10	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8113	7314	1728	286	44	143	630	1740	101	173	66	236	306	346	652	110	290	21	8	294	85	-130	+7	-10	+85	+172	12.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	139	23	4	11	50	139	8	14	5	237	305	346	652	109	292	21	8	294	85	-11	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#2Zoilo Versalles'59-'71 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,578 PA	8.4	5,578	95	97	247*	294*	397*	+56	+13	12.5	13.7
/162	664	11	12	+6.7	+1.6	1.5	pk7: 15
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.6	4,350	78	90	239	304	350	+47	+24	9.9	8.6
/162	664	12	14	+7.1	+3.7	1.5	pk7: 7
#6Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Axell Herrera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	224/289/300	75	286	1	3	22%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→45	47→55	51	190/291/259	69	233	5	12	19%	8%	63	-1.4	203/293/290	87	241	8	16	18%	9%	70	-0.9	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Jose Astudillo 2022 · A	18	42	36→40	52→55	46	198/253/268	70	239	3	9	18%	6%	48	-2.5	214/269/284	70	249	2	15	14%	6%	58	-1.7	281/326/362	81	310	5	22	11%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	43→50	38→50	51→65	51	204/279/286	82	265	5	10	24%	9%	62	-1.4	201/264/285	84	268	5	34	25%	7%	56	-1.9	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Jesús Báez 2023 · A	18	37→41	41→55	44→45	47	183/257/274	91	240	9	9	26%	8%	52	-2.2	199/262/315	116	251	12	9	25%	7%	63	-1.3	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
●Dilson Herrera 2012 · A	18	43→53	37→55	50	50	203/282/289	86	254	3	13	20%	8%	65	-1.2	228/282/352	124	298	11	12	26%	6%	78	-0.3	267/319/412	145	327	15	13	22%	6%	104	+1.4
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Aldo Gaxiola 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	49→40	46	200/275/274	74	279	5	9	28%	8%	59	-1.7	199/263/295	96	263	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.7	193/251/309	115	259	14	2	30%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Oswald Peraza 2018 · A	18	46→54	35→50	53→60	44	214/285/281	67	280	1	11	22%	6%	64	-1.3	212/274/278	66	288	4	15	26%	6%	59	-1.7	235/294/370	135	296	16	30	26%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/270/292	91	260	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	205/256/277	72	300	3	25	30%	6%	51	-2.3	240/291/409	169	325	21	27	32%	5%	95	+0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8

Axell Herrera

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps